geeter1 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Looks like a minor event up here this evening. < to an inch. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 A light mix of snow and rain has begun here in NW Chesco above 650 ft asl temp at 39.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Virga or snow currently in upper Bucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 6 hours ago, RedSky said: Virga or snow currently in upper Bucks? Just a lot of sound sleepers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Had some flurries roll thru here in that past hour. That's 2 Christmas Eves in a row with flakes. Amazing run! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Looks like several chances coming up following the cutter later this week as we head into January. Headed into prime climo....some encouraging signals on the ens moving forward but we all know they havent exactly been the most reliable guidance in the LR over the past 6 weeks. Not getting fully invested in anything at range for a bit based on the MR changes that have been occurring. Will mention tho it appears the first trackable system we have seen in a few weeks will be Dec 31-Jan 1. Then active after that. Chances are we cash in on something ... just a matter of when. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 0.11" total precip with .08" since midnight. Mix of light rain and snow continued most of the night with the most snow mix at around 3am with the relative "heaviest" rates based on my webcam video. Temps never got below 35 so clearly no accumulation - current temp 37.0 - Merry Christmas to all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 3 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: 0.11" total precip with .08" since midnight. Mix of light rain and snow continued most of the night with the most snow mix at around 3am with the relative "heaviest" rates based on my webcam video. Temps never got below 35 so clearly no accumulation - current temp 37.0 - Merry Christmas to all!! I'm just over the hill in North Coventry and I recorded zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Ho Ho Ho looks like there is finally a chance for something to track after the early December Lucy miss centered somewhere around New Years. I really need this i have zero snow on my season with ample cold and record rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 And bamm cold rain just started up once again like the weather gods pissin on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: And bamm cold rain just started up once again like the weather gods pissin on me Quakertown in the crosshairs on gfs family storm after storm. Far NW burbs are going to do very well this year. You must have really pissed them off man. Would be a major kick in the junk if NW has a tremendous season but Monmouth craps the bed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Quakertown in the crosshairs on gfs family storm after storm. Far NW burbs are going to do very well this year. You must have really pissed them off man. Would be a major kick in the junk if NW has a tremendous season but Monmouth craps the bed. Yeah i have given up and expecting things have shifted back to normal this season Monmouth County 15" Quakertown 50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Liking the new years time frame for an event. N and W favored for now but with nao fairly negative in that period, could be a region wide hit. If we don't score there, after that it looks like we punt another couple weeks at least for 95 as the nao rebounds to positive. Peak climo means n and w can still score in a bad pattern but down here we'll need luck. In an Atlantic dominated winter a transient -NAO will hurt our chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Merry Christmas everyone! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Merry Christmas to all and to all a snowy January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Merry Christmas all! Although no snow....there is a somewhat Christmas feel out there. Mostly cloudy and chilly temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Merry Christmas to all and to all a snowy January! Recent guidance really high on far NW burbs cashing in next 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Recent guidance really high on far NW burbs cashing in next 2 weeks. Hopefully, we can get the ski slopes open and make some money!!! Also, I must have been an extra good boy this year because Santa brought me a Davis Vantage Vue weather station (more to come)!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 ECM has a general couple inches of snow in the region New Year's Eve day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 hour ago, RedSky said: ECM has a general couple inches of snow in the region New Year's Eve day Not interested in the snowfall the Euro and others have for Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 17 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not interested in the snowfall the Euro and others have for Sunday? confidence is increasing for a 1-3" possibly changing to rain, almost certainly changing to sleet/frz rain for 95 imo. 2-4" N and W with some spots of 6". I think this is the one to watch. Not liking the new years threat atm after that looks like a parade of clippers though. May be able to nickle and dime our way to a solid january. That is what the upcoming pattern looks to support. Chance of snow with the clippers, synoptic events bring too much warm air though due to the lack of blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 once until we see this show a neg nao throughout the entire period expect the meh pattern with mostly rain to continue: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, The Iceman said: once until we see this show a neg nao throughout the entire period expect the meh pattern with mostly rain to continue: Agree with this somewhat. NAO ridge continues to be a 1-2 day transient feature even though most LR guidance continues teasing us with establishing this as a locked-in feature. Some guidance a few weeks ago had us locking into a -NAO now as we were stepping towards an epic January pattern but hasnt verified. Who knows....could still happen. But until the LR NAO teases actually verify I will believe it when I see it. With that said, the PAC looks to show some improvements over the next 5-10 days and models have generally handled those regions better for whatever reason. EPO ridge looks to build as well as a positive PNA but honestly unless we can time some North Atlantic Blocking at the right time we are going to be seeing cold and relatively dry conditions in response to the PAC pattern establishing itself. Could cash in on clippers but generally is a suppressed feel for bigger potential without the -NAO. Our best chances will come as we step towards this better PAC look (between Dec 30-Jan 6) then we likely enter the colder period where we rely on clippers if the NAO remains transient unless we get a lucky timing window. Hopefully later in January we can actually lock something in where we can string together a couple of weeks of solid winter weather. So probably not a total shutout coming but also not an epic KU-storm type of pattern either seen on any of the mid range ens tho there are hints that later into January we get into something better for everyone in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 56 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Kind of cool to look at the verification above and you can generally tell when we had coastal storms in relation to the negative dips.....we had the one coastal during the 3rd week of October then we had the mid November snow/coastal. Another dip between Dec 30 and early January forecast....so another coastal before headed back to neutral or positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Happy Holidays all I hope all of you had a Merry Christmas! I continue to see the pattern evolving as I had thought with my favorite model (0z Euro) showing what we could expect. The Euro Ensembles (looking at departures from average) have the cold getting here a bit faster than I thought with the week of the 4th being well below average in the East - still chilly and a little below average the week of the 11th (which is approaching out coldest week so this is cold). Then average for the coldest week of the year (again this is cold) for the week of the 18th. The final week of January is very cold into the 1st 2 weeks of February. So a step down to cold is clear...plus the model is also seeing above normal snow for the entire area for the 5 week period ending February 8th. For the EPS Ensemble mean this means it is sniffing out above normal snow here in Chester County with some members showing a KU type during the last 2 weeks of January. Keep in mind normal snow here in Chester County during the period January 8th thru Feb. 8th is 13.6". I suspect we will be well above that number by the time we roll into the 2nd week of February. Should be some interesting times ahead for those that enjoy winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 I'm skeptical still of this new FV3....has a SECS here in SE PA for Sunday but of more head-scratching is the tropics namely the Eastern GOM later in the run. It's an interesting look for sure. Have had the Sunday system to at least track for several days now but very quiet in here. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Dr No says let's roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Temps marginal on most guidance but the trend has been for colder over last 18 hours or so. The threat has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm skeptical still of this new FV3....has a SECS here in SE PA for Sunday but of more head-scratching is the tropics namely the Eastern GOM later in the run. It's an interesting look for sure. Have had the Sunday system to at least track for several days now but very quiet in here. Interesting. The whole evolution here is quite odd. Progressive flow and marginal temps. Haven't seen the Euro, but the NA models together don't look all that similar. GFS is a relatively weak and warm wave 24 hours later than the FV3. The Canadian likewise holds the system back until NYE and is even warmer. The closest to the FV3 might be the ICON, which has been fairly consistent with the timing on Sunday instead of Monday, though it doesn't look like much to behold. I honestly can't figure out how many waves we're getting here. Looks like Friday/Sunday/Tuesday or Friday/Monday. Though the GFS has almost 48 hours straight of rain for the southern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, jwilson said: The whole evolution here is quite odd. Progressive flow and marginal temps. Haven't seen the Euro, but the NA models together don't look all that similar. GFS is a relatively weak and warm wave 24 hours later than the FV3. The Canadian likewise holds the system back until NYE and is even warmer. The closest to the FV3 might be the ICON, which has been fairly consistent with the timing on Sunday instead of Monday, though it doesn't look like much to behold. I honestly can't figure out how many waves we're getting here. Looks like Friday/Sunday/Tuesday or Friday/Monday. Though the GFS has almost 48 hours straight of rain for the southern states. I know right? Too many pieces of energy which one is the focus here. Decent potential tho....worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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