Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 First long range fantasy blizzard of the young season. 18z FV3 says Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: First long range fantasy blizzard of the young season. 18z FV3 says Happy New Year! First ones since November that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 NAM has a dual-low scenario now with the late week system and this is something several ens members had been hinting at. Takes first low off the GA Coast then NNE just West of Philly while a second low develops over GA. You can see at 500mb how there is energy just pouring into the trof between 72 and 84 hours+ What a difference in the evolution of this over the past few days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: First long range fantasy blizzard of the young season. 18z FV3 says Happy New Year! That's beautiful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Mighty windy night which kept temps up only a low of 33.0 in East Nantmeal - have not fallen below freezing since the 13th - Average highs so far this month are 1.6 below normal while nighttime lows are 1.7 above normal for a overall departure of +0.1 above average. We will fall below freezing this evening and may have our 1st below normal day today in the last 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 GEFS looks great in the LR, as long as the Aleutian low retrogrades and doesn't drop down a trough in the west. EPS is holding the energy too long in the SW here, it doesn't make sense at all. Funny though with how poor the pattern looks up until the 1st, we still have a few chances to score something. I think this weekend definitely bares watching especially for areas N and W. 6Z GFS is really close to a secondary popping in a very nice location for this area. And with possible blocking in place, this could be one that trends in the right direction. Even if it's rain, this has the possibility to be a disruptive storm. 2-3" of rain on top of what we've had this year, could make for widespread flooding. I'm torn on whether we should root for it to cut though. Very very strong analogs in nino years with a late december torch period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 EPS weeklies are heading toward a pretty classic Dec/Jan/Feb El Nino/ neg EPO/AO 500 mb pattern - still liking my colder and snowier winter than normal....of course this hobby is far from an exact science so stay tuned for adjustments!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 18, 2018 Author Share Posted December 18, 2018 A significant rainfall is on the way for Thursday night/Friday. Flood Watch is effect here from Thursday evening thru Friday evening for 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 0z ECM progenated Christmas snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 15 hours ago, Rtd208 said: A significant rainfall is on the way for Thursday night/Friday. Flood Watch is effect here from Thursday evening thru Friday evening for 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Still looks good for at least that much though every model besides the NAM has shifted the axis of heaviest rain from SE PA to E NJ into SNE. Think the best flooding potential is going to be there though with all time record PWATS in place for met winter, anything is still on the table. I think we'll see totals increase as we get closer. This is a pretty highly anomalous event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Going back and reading the threads from the March Madness snowstorms last year today...man that was a fun stretch of winter weather especially for a Nina. If we can get a similar stretch except in met winter this year, it would be historic. I am liking the huge moisture train evident this winter, obviously it has yet to pay dividends but if we can get the NAO to cooperate, we still have the potential for a very special period. Ensembles are still everywhere in regards to the pattern after the 1st. Individual members seem more helpful than the mean right now as there are really 2 distinct camps. One with a -NAO/-AO building in and locking in, the other just a brief period of blocking before jumping right back to positive leading to more of the same as december unless we get lucky. PNA looks to dip neutral but then looks to head positive for the foreseeable future which is a good sign. If we can get the atlantic on board in the next week or 2, we'll be in business. With the SSWE, all bets are off for the end of the month right now into mid january right now. All depends where the cold is displaced. There's a chance it is dumped into europe though which would mean January is would be a wash... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Hello! Do any of you know where I can find the snow records for the philly/new Jersey area? Just curiously comparing apples to apples here....There has been a lot of talk about the active moisture train we've had up and down the MA this year...What has baffled me is why the wettest years we have down here in Baltimore...have not been followed by above average snowfall! So, I'm looking for data from the winters that followed 1889, 1979, 1996, and 2003. Down here, the winters that followed were kinda mediocre...so I'm wondering if it was the same up here! (Needless to say this worries me for all of us!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 79-80 was an average winter, the rest were crap at least in the 95 area... I didn't look at the snow data for ABE. Not sure it's that 1:1 though of a correlation. None of those are good fits with ENSO. Also, there's a clear trend towards more precipitation in general for the MA/NE likely due to climate change. For here, 3 of the top 5 wettest years were have came after 2010. There's a clear trend in increase of precipitation in certain areas. More evidence of that coming this weekend, with record setting PWATS for met winter likely in place. Excessively wet years are becoming less of an anomaly and more of a norm... BTW jcweather.com is an amazing source for weather history in the philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 12Z ECM gives this region 1-3" snow south to north Christmas night. Unfortunately it's still the only model showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Third euro in a row with snow here on Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12Z ECM gives this region 1-3" snow south to north Christmas night. Unfortunately it's still the only model showing it. NAVGEM has it FWIW and several gefs and geps individual members have it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12Z ECM gives this region 1-3" snow south to north Christmas night. Unfortunately it's still the only model showing it. Ukie and Icon have a wave on the 24th that would be light snow for most. CMC has something on the 25th but it takes a poor track and would likely be rain. GFS is really the only model with nothing. Several GEFS members have a few inches in that period though. Also promising is roughly half have some measurable snow in the next 10 days. Something to watch at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Ukie and Icon have a wave on the 24th that would be light snow for most. CMC has something on the 25th but it takes a poor track and would likely be rain. GFS is really the only model with nothing. Several GEFS members have a few inches in that period though. Also promising is roughly half have some measurable snow in the next 10 days. Something to watch at least... I made a post in the Mid Atl forum a few days ago about how it's funny when most people "punt the rest of December" we have seen the most threats showing up but when an epic pattern shows up we cant buy a snow shower lol. I know it's a different location but still. This period has been on my radar for at least 10 days now. Doesnt mean it will produce but yeah something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I made a post in the Mid Atl forum a few days ago about how it's funny when most people "punt the rest of December" we have seen the most threats showing up but when an epic pattern shows up we cant buy a snow shower lol. I know it's a different location but still. This period has been on my radar for at least 10 days now. Doesnt mean it will produce but yeah something to watch. Yeah I think with the parade of juicy synoptic systems we've seen the last few months, folks are expecting one of those to be a snow threat so I understand the frustration. We've had a wet month with temps at around normal but nothing to show for it. The next 10 days doesn't have a MECS threat imo but we could very easily score 1-2" once or twice. It isn't like it's an all out torch pattern where we're making tee times christmas day.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Actually the new GFS has it but 24 hours earlier and sheers it off like 500 miles to the south. Drastic model differences for day 5 -6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 12z euro OP is a November repeat and verbatim gives me some white rain while everybody else N&W has a white Christmas. That would be a stake straight through the heart and pretty much unbearable so yeah I am hating it with all my being. *** Need the ECM ensembles stat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 I am absolutely amazed there is little to no discussion on the PWAT values for Fridays rains in this forum and the record breaking temps with thunderstorm watches/warnings and with flood warnings galore. This is biblical in my textbook in my 30 years of weather for this area. The groundwater level has never been seen this high in the LV and this is coming from Lehigh County Authority who has observation wells all over Lehigh County for the last 50+ years. Four inches of rain from this upcoming event will be devastating in some areas. Historic flooding is anticipated and MT Holly backs it up with how early they issued the flood watches. To hell with talking about a one inch snow for Christmas- for many their Christmas will be cleaning up the flood damage, especially from flooded basements. I am totally bewildered why the media is only given a measly mention. I guess if was a hurricane like Hurricane Irene, it would be front page. Boy will everyone be surprised on Saturday morning and the damage will be extensive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 22 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I am absolutely amazed there is little to no discussion on the PWAT values for Fridays rains in this forum and the record breaking temps with thunderstorm watches/warnings and with flood warnings galore. This is biblical in my textbook in my 30 years of weather for this area. The groundwater level has never been seen this high in the LV and this is coming from Lehigh County Authority who has observation wells all over Lehigh County for the last 50+ years. Four inches of rain from this upcoming event will be devastating in some areas. Historic flooding is anticipated and MT Holly backs it up with how early they issued the flood watches. To hell with talking about a one inch snow for Christmas- for many their Christmas will be cleaning up the flood damage, especially from flooded basements. I am totally bewildered why the media is only given a measly mention. I guess if was a hurricane like Hurricane Irene, it would be front page. Boy will everyone be surprised on Saturday morning and the damage will be extensive. Not everywhere is going to get 4", but some localized areas likely will with the convective thunderstorm potential. The 3k NAM shows the localized nature. Parts of Lancaster/Berks get only 0.5-1" of rain yet Carbon/Monroe counties get 3-4". How much rain one receives will be highly determined on the localized training thunderstorm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 23 minutes ago, Newman said: Not everywhere is going to get 4", but some localized areas likely will with the convective thunderstorm potential. The 3k NAM shows the localized nature. Parts of Lancaster/Berks get only 0.5-1" of rain yet Carbon/Monroe counties get 3-4". How much rain one receives will be highly determined on the localized training thunderstorm potential. Hmm...will old JB rule of thumb idea about snow within 10 days of thunder in the winter come into play?? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Regular GFS found a Christmas system, it's on the eve like it's new baby brother had but closer to us. Unfortunately it's rain with a cutoff of no snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 hours ago, JTA66 said: Hmm...will old JB rule of thumb idea about snow within 10 days of thunder in the winter come into play?? Packing quite a wallop!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 0z GFS #1 not buying any of what the euro was selling for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: 0z GFS #1 not buying any of what the euro was selling for Christmas hard to remember who is Dr. No these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, zenmsav6810 said: hard to remember who is Dr. No these days... I would say GFS #1 has the early lead it was all no for the November system until short range but the season is young Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 The frames take forever but GFS #2 looks like it will have something, as in rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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