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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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Looking at the radar loop while mooching WaWa's free WiFi...it appears this thing is wrapping around. Philly and surrounding burbs seem to be in the mix for quite a bit.

*Off topic but went to visit my parents early....4am (they're old and get up super early...lol) Power outages in Horsham...weather related...who knows?? The whole neighborhood was pitch dark...

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1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Gotta like the trend on the EURO....it has as expected started to move toward a colder solution for the last week of the year...

 

eps_control_t2anom_by7_conus_61(39).png

Euro op, GEFS, GEPS all suggest otherwise. Not saying they r right but definitely not any overwhelming support for the control run u posted. Mid Jan thru mid/late Feb is our time if we r going to cash in this season.....at least based on past history and climo. 

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Just to be clear I am not saying a big cold or snows before the end of the year....but some below some above and biased a bit colder than normal. This reminds me so much of folks back in 2014 telling me that they saw no signs of winter coming....but with the warm PDO with a Neg EPO to follow combined with the strat warming event all coming together - I just don't see how we don't see some significant cold and storminess by that 2nd week of the New Year. Of course I could be wrong (am I am an amateur hobbyist) but to me all the signs are pointing to cold coming or as JB would always say it is delayed but not denied! 

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36 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Just to be clear I am not saying a big cold or snows before the end of the year....but some below some above and biased a bit colder than normal. This reminds me so much of folks back in 2014 telling me that they saw no signs of winter coming....but with the warm PDO with a Neg EPO to follow combined with the strat warming event all coming together - I just don't see how we don't see some significant cold and storminess by that 2nd week of the New Year. Of course I could be wrong (am I am an amateur hobbyist) but to me all the signs are pointing to cold coming or as JB would always say it is delayed but not denied! 

Just playing devils advocate as their isn't a whole heck if alot to discuss otherwise.....but basically what you're saying is that it will probably get colder during the coldest climo time of the entire year? Isnt that the same as someone suggesting it is going to get warmer with afternoon thunderstorms in mid July after a cool June? :devilsmiley:

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Btw this is so close to being something 'better'. Doubt it happens but did look at run to run trends and I am seeing better blocking in the NAO region and the slp pulling out of the 50/50 area has been slightly slower to budge each run. That damn full lat WAR kills us tho. If the SE ridge wasnt drawn into the NAO the system would be allowed to undercut the area and *maybe* be more wintry. Big bomb of a storm tho so who knows....the trend has been to slide these sw's more S and E so we'll see. Havent seen a gyre like this tho yet this fall:

gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

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21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just playing devils advocate as their isn't a whole heck if alot to discuss otherwise.....but basically what you're saying is that it will probably get colder during the coldest climo time of the entire year? Isnt that the same as someone suggesting it is going to get warmer with afternoon thunderstorms in mid July after a cool June? :devilsmiley:

Hey Steve...to clarify I am saying "significant cold" and storms and rumors of storms by week 2 of the New Year....but of course can a storm pop up like it did at Christmas of my analog year of 2002/03....absolutely - folks forget this time of the year it can be near or slightly above normal and still squeeze in a snowstorm with a nice track to the benchmark! 

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While the ensemble means haven't looked great the last few days for the next 15 days pattern in the the LR, there is a big variablity in the individual members. Some suggest a period of blocking beginning the 23rd, others suggest that period is transient and the pattern completely unravels by the new year. I bet the SSWE has something to do with that. I think until the effects of that become more clear, no one can really say with certainty the long range(Jan 1st-15th) looks good or bad.  Could see our first pattern of real blocking or our first real torch. Both outcomes seem possible.

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49 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I'm parked at the Bloomsbury TA truckstop in New Jersey and every now and then I see some mangled, half melted snowflakes smacking the windshield. Temp here is 38.

If I was sitting up on I-80 in Columbia by the water gap instead of I-78 in Bloomsbury right now, per radar, I'd be seeing some very heavy snow.

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So far am at 1.18" of rain for the day, in addition to 0.17" yesterday, and 0.11" Friday night for a total of 1.46" over 3 days.  My sister in Wyndmoor just texted about some flakes mixing in where she is but I am still getting a cold light rain here. Could be a higher elevation effect. Current temp is 38.

 

12162018-nexrad.gif

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Shame 850s are way above normal prior but the storm trend cant be denied. Even the last frame (the most recent run) the positive tilt to the pna ridge would want to adjust the system farther East. Weird to see models driving the slp right into the block almost due N though I am seeing signs of a Miller b transfer on recent runs. I suppose there is a weakness that it is trying to work N into:

gfs_z500a_us_fh114_trend.gif

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Regarding the Thurs-Fri system you can see a notable move to more of a SE shift in track as we have witnessed with a few systems this fall as lead time has shortened. NAM at range has the slp SE of Apalachicola FL whereas the GFS and FV3 have it running the Mississippi River. Of note, the Euro is also closer in general placement to the NAM at similar times as are the NAVGEM and UKMET vs the GFS family. Ensembles show clustering of low placement well S and E of mean center also but once we hit 90 hours there is a muddled look between which camp is correct though again, looking at the trends over past 3-5 days it has been to push the system farther S and E. 

Curiously, the NAVGEM has the slp track over Cape May which is somewhat not surprising given the model biases but is still fitting in with the general trends of more ridging at higher lat and more of a SE track as lead time shrinks. Might be one of the few repetitive trends that we will see this winter and *maybe* that NAO ridging, even if transient, pops up more often than not and can help us out as the season moves forward.

 

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_52.png

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This will likely still end up as a cutter but will be curious to see how far West it cuts and when/where a coastal transfer takes place. At one time this was running West of the Mississippi River and  not even redeveloping like a Miller B. Then models moved to a transfer over new England. Now some guidance has it South of us (at least some ens and one ops) much like the weekend storm we just experienced. Interesting?

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