Physicsteve Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Screencapped this from an article on nj.com a week or so ago about the lack of snow this year, especially in central jersey. Its like Redsky’s luck was trying to reach back and snowhole PA too. What an azzhole... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: You're good - that was me trying to be funny. I guess the mock authoritarian tone didn't come through. We're pretty relaxed here, sometimes a moderator from NY will stop in and take our pulse. A couple more snows would be nice - we've had to work hard for our snow this winter, especially RedSky. No worries man! Regarding redskys snowhole, I was going to say the past two ski trips I went on have added up to 58 inches in 6 days on the mountain. That's like 20-30x more snow than redsky has recieved this year. (39 inches in 4 days at smugglers notch 1/8-11 and 15/19 inches at Mount snow/magic, respectively, on 1/20-21. I've been really lucky with my powder chasing this year. Like seriously lucky, smuggs recieved 12 inches more than Stowe during that storm, and they're only a few miles apart on the same mountain. I guess the wind direction favored smuggs with the upslope snow, pretty crazy how much variability there is in QPF along the green mtn spine. Also any chance that shortwave dips a bit further south and phases sooner? Thatd be good for a few inches if so. But it seems like it's too late for that since its 48 hours out. I dont know what itd take or what to look for, for that to occur. Does anyone have any books they reccomend to help learn more? So I dont have to bother you guys and can actually contribute something meaningful, besides observations. You guys have been more than helpful, I really appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 NAM still has our light event for Friday morning. C-2" type deal. Guess we see if others continue the same look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 42 minutes ago, Physicsteve said: Screencapped this from an article on nj.com a week or so ago about the lack of snow this year, especially in central jersey. Its like Redsky’s luck was trying to reach back and snowhole PA too. What an azzhole... Here is the actual tweet - and closeup of that map (this was as of/just before the tweet, which was 2/17/19) - There is an interesting hole in southern Delaware too, somewhere along an area between Milford and Lewes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Meh 12z suite aside from nam says flurries at best Friday AM. Winter of azz keeps plugging along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 GFS family looks interesting for Monday but I think we know how it will end with a fairly flat flow at 500mb. This is probably the best case look imo: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 very quickly looking like monday is our best and only shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS family looks interesting for Monday but I think we know how it will end with a fairly flat flow at 500mb. This is probably the best case look imo: Does a flatter flow mean less ability to pull moisture out of the gulf and less time for the low to deepen along the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Physicsteve said: Screencapped this from an article on nj.com a week or so ago about the lack of snow this year, especially in central jersey. Its like Redsky’s luck was trying to reach back and snowhole PA too. What an azzhole... There it is, like an atmospheric proctology exam this winter I feel better that I have measured 4.7" that map says i did worse and is that right Qtown comes in at a whopping 8"! That matches what i measured in 2012 after frankenstorm near identical not counting this coming March however. Two very bad winters after early snow the evidence grows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Im at 12.1" for the season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said: Does a flatter flow mean less ability to pull moisture out of the gulf and less time for the low to deepen along the coast? Yes and yes. Keeps it from 'turning the corner' and coming N while amplifying. Not gonna say it wont happen but odds right now are against a monster storm crawling up the coast. Flow looks progressive. However, with that said a decent W to E overunning or a small amplified wave riding along a SW to NE trajectory is more likely and will work for the area. Monday is a solid direct hit on the Euro FWIW. Looks like a 4-8"/5-10" hit verbatim. Quickly becoming our best threat of the season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 58 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yes and yes. Keeps it from 'turning the corner' and coming N while amplifying. Not gonna say it wont happen but odds right now are against a monster storm crawling up the coast. Flow looks progressive. However, with that said a decent W to E overunning or a small amplified wave riding along a SW to NE trajectory is more likely and will work for the area. Monday is a solid direct hit on the Euro FWIW. Looks like a 4-8"/5-10" hit verbatim. Quickly becoming our best threat of the season? Euro/CMC doesn't inspire as much confidence as it once did. Want the GFS on board for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 hours ago, The Iceman said: Euro/CMC doesn't inspire as much confidence as it once did. Want the GFS on board for sure. GFS family heading the wrong direction. Fail on every threat during our promising window of hope. Very uninspiring 18z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS family heading the wrong direction. Fail on every threat during our promising window of hope. Very uninspiring 18z suite. Good thing we've had plenty of practice this winter. I'm almost, I said almost, numb to it. Probably because spring could be around the corner. I still think we'll get something in the next 10 days or so though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 12k NAM for Friday AM snow: 3k NAM says ummm no: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 ICON starts 0z off with a nice hit from the Sunday system then a benchmark track for the midweek storm. Still somewhat anemic for Friday tho....12k NAM doesnt have alot of support attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Yeah man this looks great, especially with nuclear March sun *sarcasm meter on full power Meanwhile GFS #1 is 900 miles south Shotgun modelling buckshot flying everywhre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Towel officially thrown in from me, 10 day threats again seem to be very uninspiring. While it hasn't been a complete bust out this way it sure would've been nice to have a 4-8 storm for the winter not counting November that is. I'm over these 1-3 to Ice slop fests see ya in the severe season threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6z GFS / FV3 both have a wave sliding thru on Sunday night into Monday. FV3 most aggressive of the 2 models with widespread 4-8" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6Z ICON also a SECS for Sunday PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Have a feeling with the weekend system I95 area will be the usual r/s line with farther N and W areas being colder. CMC is juiced but farther N with a MECS far N and W. Euro is about the same. The red flag to me is the NAVGEM is in line with the farther NW models. I95 areas should be used to how this will likely unfold by now. We can always hope for a late fluke tho with this. We are in range at least at 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Hoping for some snow Friday. Looks good on the Nam but then again its the NAM. Expecting to get screwed on the Monday threat, the usual N and W get snow while I get 33 and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 12z 12k and 3k NAM both drop 1-3" friday morning. Not as juiced as before but would be a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, The Iceman said: 12z 12k and 3k NAM both drop 1-3" friday morning. Not as juiced as before but would be a nice little event. Nams have been liking this consistently for a couple of days. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 rgem also wetter c-2" as opposed to nothing at 06z...could the NAM score a coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 also worth noting we are only like 50 miles from the real heavy stuff. if we see the typical N trend continue, we may be in line for a decent little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3k has a heavy band that goes through south of 1-195.Should help accumulate on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 icon is a whiff for friday but sunday is a big hit...4-8" for SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The one on my radar still there. Legit tracker: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The fact Saturday doesnt amp up helps us tremendously for Sunday PM this run. Balancing act with some wiggle room for I95 but not much tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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