Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 9 separate snow events for me this season. One would read that sentence and assume a banner year right? Total snowfall of 11.1" not even close to halfway for seasonal snowfall avg for my area. 1991-92 turning out to be a damn good analog for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Too bad it can't be 5-10F milder tomorrow or I would make it a beach day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Hit a high of 49 when the sun was out full force, and it's now on the way down. Currently 46 and mostly cloudy. Most of the snow in the S/SW-facing areas is gone but there is still some in the shaded N/NE spots plus some remnants of plowed/shoveled mounds here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I wish I was forecasting snow for tomorrow but I am going to the Stadium series game and the arrival of the rain keeps switching. It looked like it was going to be a washout but now the models have backed off any major precip until 6z. Does anyone think we have a chance to get the game in. I'm crossing my fingers the trend of the WAA precip diminishing before the main show holds up. GFS looks very dry. New NAM came in an has nothing significant until 3z. Really hoping it isn't postponed but honestly this is what they get for scheduling it in late february, not that it would have matter much this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Also in case anyone else is a masochist like myself, the day 8 and day 10/11 threats both look very interesting. They are suppressed right now but we got the cold air and a strong moisture source from the south, this could be ralphs unicorn. I'm hopping on...one last time. Let's get climo in one storm No other choice because Spring begins after the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 hours ago, The Iceman said: Also in case anyone else is a masochist like myself, the day 8 and day 10/11 threats both look very interesting. They are suppressed right now but we got the cold air and a strong moisture source from the south, this could be ralphs unicorn. I'm hopping on...one last time. Let's get climo in one storm No other choice because Spring begins after the 10th. Yup the carrot on the stick routine we know all to well the day 8 storm a couple days ago was cancelled following run now every day 10 looks promising. Should stay there until March 15 when it's a big rain storm and I say "if this was just a couple weeks earlier" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/flagstaff-arizona-sets-all-time-snow-record-as-major-snowstorm-slams-southwestern-us/70007498 Winter of Yore has indeed happened in the west we missed it. 35.9" snow in Flagstaff breaking the record of 31" 4" snow in the Valleys around Vegas that has to be the amount of snow it takes a couple winters to receive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Snow now in LA and Hollywood lol last time was 1962! https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-california-snow-20190221-story.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 MA sub forum has a 10 page March thread ...including sun angle back - forth debates. Real troopers over there. 41F I feel every day is the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 Looks like there will be a period of heavy rain tomorrow night thru the first half of Sunday which will produce around 1.0"-1.5" of rainfall. Winds increase Sunday afternoon/evening with the highest winds expected on Monday which could reach High Wind Warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 High Wind Watch issued here from Sunday evening thru Monday afternoon for wind gusts up to 55 mph possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Well it's looking like we have 3 threats on the horizon the next 5-12 days. -EPO driven, we get some blocking as well...transient like always but should set up a nice 7-10 day window. Ensembles especially the EPS are really jumping on board with some members showing HECS potential in the day 10 range. Many of our HECS were sniffed out at range so it's nice to see all models with some form of big storm even if it is suppressed for now. Don't think that will be the worry with this and that like most of winter mixing/rain will be the worry. I'll be happy to get a 3-6" all snow event and call it a subpar winter. Getting to average would be nice but it's simply unrealistic expectations with 13" on the year and 15.2" to go. One biggie will do it though. Should be fun to watch this week to see how the upcoming period unfolds. Don't sleep on the clipper weds night/thurs. A little more digging and it's a solid advisory snowfall for most of SE PA. These events are notorious for changes right up to 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Wow: Ice Tsunami 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Well it's looking like we have 3 threats on the horizon the next 5-12 days. -EPO driven, we get some blocking as well...transient like always but should set up a nice 7-10 day window. Ensembles especially the EPS are really jumping on board with some members showing HECS potential in the day 10 range. Many of our HECS were sniffed out at range so it's nice to see all models with some form of big storm even if it is suppressed for now. Don't think that will be the worry with this and that like most of winter mixing/rain will be the worry. I'll be happy to get a 3-6" all snow event and call it a subpar winter. Getting to average would be nice but it's simply unrealistic expectations with 13" on the year and 15.2" to go. One biggie will do it though. Should be fun to watch this week to see how the upcoming period unfolds. Don't sleep on the clipper weds night/thurs. A little more digging and it's a solid advisory snowfall for most of SE PA. These events are notorious for changes right up to 24 hours out. Most guidance including ensembles have a general flat flow across the USA thru this period. While something can amplify and the next 2 weeks has best potential of the entire winter we need to see signs of amplification otherwise disturbances just keep zipping thru the fast flow. The EPO ridge is extended west to east and the mean ridge is a flat based ridge which tries to extend east into the NAO region but again the look is sort of flat where it matters. Hoping when/if things amplify they dont get squashed South ala 1960. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Don't sleep on the clipper weds night/thurs. I think the wed thurs thing is northern PA at best. Keeps ticking n on the nam. More interested in fri-sat potential light snow event. Not huge but could lay down some white for us farther s in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 too bad the CMC sucks but we can dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: too bad the CMC sucks but we can dream Only 9 days out. We r moving closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Monmouth bulls eye March 6th 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 On 2/20/2019 at 6:09 PM, Rtd208 said: Not to take away from any wintry weather we are currently getting but the storm this weekend could pack a punch. The NWS is highlighting the chance of heavy rain Saturday night/Sunday with strong to possibly damaging winds (damaging per Mt.Holly) Sunday but especially on Monday. Not busting on you just saying how pathetic things have been this winter.. Heavy rain failed completely...most of us received .5"....rather than the 1 -1.5" predicted. Winds have been gusty last night/today but more annoying the damaging....no flying cows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Not busting on you just saying how pathetic things have been this winter.. Heavy rain failed completely...most of us received .5"....rather than the 1 -1.5" predicted. Winds have been gusty last night/today but more annoying the damaging....no flying cows.. I am not sure what you expected guy. Winds lived up to expectation as there were numerous 50-60 mph gusts recorded which was in line with the NWS forecasts. Rainfall amounts were forecast to be anywhere from 0.50"-1.50" with most area receiving within that range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am not sure what you expected guy. Winds lived up to expectation as there were numerous 50-60 mph gusts recorded which was in line with the NWS forecasts. Rainfall amounts were forecast to be anywhere from 0.50"-1.50" with most area receiving within that range. Rain amounts and intensity definitely failed this weekend. Peco page: https://www.peco.com/Outages/CheckOutageStatus/Pages/OutageMap.aspx Basically some outages....total them all (click on them) a couple thousand...meh. Been driving around all day for work, nothing really caught my eye. Very breezy/gusty at times but nothing "really impressive"...nice but I expected more, that's all. My name is Mike..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Rain amounts and intensity definitely failed this weekend. Peco page: https://www.peco.com/Outages/CheckOutageStatus/Pages/OutageMap.aspx Basically some outages....total them all (click on them) a couple thousand...meh. Been driving around all day for work, nothing really caught my eye. Very breezy/gusty at times but nothing "really impressive"...nice but I expected more, that's all. My name is Mike..... Hey Mike! How's it going? My name is Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Looks like most guidance along the same lines of 1-3" snow SE PA early Friday. NAM most aggressive with 2-4". Nickel and diming our way along in the winter of azz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Didnt see any flying wildlife, including unicorns, today. Just some branches, a knocked over porta-potty (thank goodness there was another one, we worked from 5am-10:30pm today.....), a tarp in the road and some blown around streetlights. Oh and my hardhat got blown about 30 ft downwind, other than that it was a bit of an underwhelming event even though its been a while since we've had strong sustained winds. Edit: Crap, I thought this was the rain and wind thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 54 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said: Didnt see any flying wildlife, including unicorns, today. Just some branches, a knocked over porta-potty (thank goodness there was another one, we worked from 5am-10:30pm today.....), a tarp in the road and some blown around streetlights. Oh and my hardhat got blown about 30 ft downwind, other than that it was a bit of an underwhelming event even though its been a while since we've had strong sustained winds. Edit: Crap, I thought this was the rain and wind thread. We'll allow it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Thanks for understanding Kamu, I was beat, and still am with 2 hrs sleep.. Northern facing slopes are still completely snow covered west of Harrisburg btw. Looks like the next week or two have decent potential for some snow. If we get lucky maybe Ralph's unicorn might rear its horn. Seems like theres potential for back to back systems to setup between North Carolina and PA. I want to take a third trip to Vermont or ADKs the weekend of March 9th and 10th, so I'm hoping it's a snowy beginning to the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 hour ago, ChasingFlakes said: Thanks for understanding Kamu, I was beat, and still am with 2 hrs sleep.. Northern facing slopes are still completely snow covered west of Harrisburg btw. Looks like the next week or two have decent potential for some snow. If we get lucky maybe Ralph's unicorn might rear its horn. Seems like theres potential for back to back systems to setup between North Carolina and PA. I want to take a third trip to Vermont or ADKs the weekend of March 9th and 10th, so I'm hoping it's a snowy beginning to the month. You're good - that was me trying to be funny. I guess the mock authoritarian tone didn't come through. We're pretty relaxed here, sometimes a moderator from NY will stop in and take our pulse. A couple more snows would be nice - we've had to work hard for our snow this winter, especially RedSky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: You're good - that was me trying to be funny. I guess the mock authoritarian tone didn't come through. We're pretty relaxed here, sometimes a moderator from NY will stop in and take our pulse. A couple more snows would be nice - we've had to work hard for our snow this winter, especially RedSky. Central Bucks County on east thru Levittown to Trenton and across 195 in NJ to Monmouth is the new DC snow hole apparently at least for this year. Well, not as extreme but if you look at most systems this season there is much lower snowfall across that area than surrounding spots North South and West and one would think it was a Miller B type redeveloping screw zone but I dont think we've had a single Miller B all season outside of a hybrid type. Interesting phenomena to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Central Bucks County on east thru Levittown to Trenton and across 195 in NJ to Monmouth is the new DC snow hole apparently at least for this year. Well, not as extreme but if you look at most systems this season there is much lower snowfall across that area than surrounding spots North South and West and one would think it was a Miller B type redeveloping screw zone but I dont think we've had a single Miller B all season outside of a hybrid type. Interesting phenomena to say the least. Down this way we've had a little MA overflow, otherwise we'd probably be at around 10". Interesting as you said, from a technical standpoint anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Central Bucks County on east thru Levittown to Trenton and across 195 in NJ to Monmouth is the new DC snow hole apparently at least for this year. Well, not as extreme but if you look at most systems this season there is much lower snowfall across that area than surrounding spots North South and West and one would think it was a Miller B type redeveloping screw zone but I dont think we've had a single Miller B all season outside of a hybrid type. Interesting phenomena to say the least. it's all due to the crappy NAO and PAC. Everything either went to our west or suppressed ots. Since we finally have blocking setting up, you see we get 3 legit threats in turn. However, as with any set up theres a real and probably favored chance that we miss all 3 chances. Thus is the issue of trying to score in March. It's a shame this pattern didn't set in last month like was progged. I do think we see one more snow event this year though even if it is light 1-3" like every event this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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