Blue Dream Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro is a nice hit for Saturday especially along S PA. Game on. Would you mind posting it? I need to get access to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Euro also has the 1-2 punch with the second storm sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, JMcCaughey42 said: Would you mind posting it? I need to get access to the Euro Dont have the qpf maps my friend from work gets them I didnt renew my membership after January. If I can get him to send I will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dont have the qpf maps my friend from work gets them I didnt renew my membership after January. If I can get him to send I will. Thanks, what site do you recommend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Snowmap in mid Atl forum bullseye close to our region. Sunday solid. Very nice run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, JMcCaughey42 said: Thanks, what site do you recommend? Weathermodels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Third system coming out of GOM Monday ETA: Phases and gets stuck down in the TX Gulf Coast. Wouldnt read into it just know it is active. Weekend first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1224 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 Things become a little more uncertain heading into the weekend. The front looks to stall south of our area Friday night with a wave of low pressure moving along this stalled front. There is a little more confidence in this occuring at the present time. As it stands, it looks like precipitation will start out as mostly rain, especially over southern portions of the area, but snow is possible over the higher elevation of the Poconos and NW NJ. Highs will be slightly cooler, though still a little warmer than average, making it into the upper 30s to the north and possibly to 50 across central Delmarva. Another shortwave and associated surface low will likely race across the country, moving into our area late Sunday into Monday. There is considerable disagreement regarding the intensity of this system, thus have a general chance of showers and snow showers in the grids. A fairly strong 250 mb jet streak will be placed over the area, with a surface baroclinic zone over the area. Model discrepancy is quite noticeable over this, thus went with a blended approach on temps, with a general chance of rain and snow shower, separated accordingly. Little change with the overall synoptic pattern with no fronts moving through the region, thus highs Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday should be similar, ranging from near freezing across the northwest to low 40s across southern Delaware. I don't know, seems still too progressive. We'll see if they bite tomorrow or the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 With the MJO and SOI moving in the right direction, and the models starting to show threats, I've become cautiously optimistic over the last few days. But the most encouraging indicator to me since yesterday is how this storm has trended colder, along with the weekend suddenly looking pretty interesting, and it's only 5 days out. Actual evidence of changes as opposed to 7 to 10 days out "maybes". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Third system coming out of GOM Monday ETA: Phases and gets stuck down in the TX Gulf Coast. Wouldnt read into it just know it is active. Weekend first. Finally kicks out and gives part of the region a nice event late Tues Wed early Thurs especially n and w. Way too early for specifics but another model with a mid week qpf bomb coming out of near the western GOM/TX Gulf Coast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Spring fever baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 6 hours ago, RedSky said: Spring fever baby Strange. I wonder if this euro is still struggling with holding energy and overphasing it in the SW which allows us to see such anomalous height rises downstream in the East? What's even more weird because the entire run it has well AN 850 over the East where nearly every other piece of guidance has the East (actually the majority of the country) BN thru much of the next 384 hours save for day 10 really. Euro is either friends with the groundhog and leading the way or failing miserable yet again in the LR.......TBD I suppose. Would be a fitting way to end this winter with an emphatic nail in the coffin and no more teases if it were right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 MJO is starting to cross signals once again and become erratic and bouncy from run to run and model to model FWIW which us probably alot since the pattern has been MJO-driven this season. In other news looks like the Saturday system is being squashed to our South now which I kind of expected and mentioned yesterday ie a Mid Atlantic hit rich get richer sort of thing. Sunday threat for us still there but not nearly as robust looking and more weak/strong out than we were seeing yesterday. Both systems still require monitoring and could ultimately impact parts of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Brutal winter for long range models. Complete 180s sometimes day to day. I think you guys (Ralph W & Iceman) made an awesome winter forecast months ago, explaining the pattern. From yesterday Sat and Sun chances is of course different this morning from the overnight analysis. Kudos for hanging in!!! I am too although my expectations of getting a real plowable event are under 10%. Happy yesterday's rain did manage to leave some white on the ground. Will probably be gone by Friday. Wouldn't mind getting nickeled and dimed at least once over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Doing work up in little falls NJ, out of our region forsure but it just started dumping a bunch of flurries for 15 min during our break. Fair bit of precip coming across pa. 5 mins later its sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Mt. Holly just EASed a Snow Squall Warning up in the Northern Montco, Bucks, Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and adjacent Jersey areas - Quote Snow Squall Warning SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1237 PM EST WED FEB 13 2019 NJC019-027-037-041-PAC011-017-077-091-095-131802- /O.NEW.KPHI.SQ.W.0004.190213T1737Z-190213T1830Z/ 1237 PM EST WED FEB 13 2019 Hunterdon County NJ-Morris County NJ-Sussex County NJ-Warren County NJ-Berks County PA-Bucks County PA-Lehigh County PA-Montgomery County PA-Northampton County PA- The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Morris County in northern New Jersey... Northern Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey... South central Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey... Warren County in northwestern New Jersey... Northeastern Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Southeastern Lehigh County in eastern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Southern Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania... * Until 130 PM EST. * At 1237 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Great Meadows-Vienna to near Bethlehem to Leesport, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Poor visibility in heavy snow. SOURCE...Radar and spotters. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * Visibility reduced to a quarter mile or less has been reported with this snow squall in Northampton and Lehigh counties. Temperatures are above freezing, however they may quickly drop to freezing during the burst of snow resulting in icy conditions on untreated roads. Locations impacted include... Allentown, Easton, Morristown, Bethlehem, Dover, Hopatcong, Forks, Emmaus, Lincoln Park, Northampton, Hackettstown, Quakertown, Boonton, Wilson, Wharton, Washington, Rockaway, Hellertown, Nazareth and Morris Plains. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Reduce your speed and turn on headlights! During snow squalls, the visibility may suddenly drop to near zero in whiteout conditions. Slow Down! Rapid changes in visibility and road conditions are expected with this dangerous snow squall. Be alert for sudden whiteout conditions. LAT...LON 4070 7540 4098 7492 4095 7428 4093 7428 4075 7455 4073 7471 4064 7473 4058 7481 4031 7549 4045 7614 4070 7540 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Dr No headed the wrong way with everything possible the next 10 days. Dont shoot the messenger. Wave 1 south and sheared. Wave 2 sheared south. Wave 3 amped cutter and losing the cold air.....sort of resembles yesterday storm. Thereafter beach weather for the foreseeable future. If it wasnt the Euro I would say meh whatever but this is a few runs in a row now where it essentially tries to put a nail in the coffin of winter 18-19. Again just relaying guidance data. Dr No just took that unicorn, sacrificed it, ripped off it's horn and shoved it where the sun doesnt shine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Snow flurries here, a squall looks to be just to my north. Temp 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dr No headed the wrong way with everything possible the next 10 days. Dont shoot the messenger. Wave 1 south and sheared. Wave 2 sheared south. Wave 3 amped cutter and losing the cold air.....sort of resembles yesterday storm. Thereafter beach weather for the foreseeable future. If it wasnt the Euro I would say meh whatever but this is a few runs in a row now where it essentially tries to put a nail in the coffin of winter 18-19. Again just relaying guidance data. Dr No just took that unicorn, sacrificed it, ripped off it's horn and shoved it where the sun doesnt shine. Don't fret. I'm going to Phoenix from 2/23 to 3/2. That means it'll be warm here and cold there. Winter will return on 3/3 once I'm back here. Lately, cold weather seems to follow me around like a black cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Was dead center of that squall, just a dusting on top of fresh snow, the roads were too warm from the sun to accumulate despite pretty nice rates for at least 30 mins. Should drive through a narrow band going south on 95 if it keeps shape that far east in the next 30 mins. Radar looks like rain at my house except for some patches of snow on radar. Not sure if that's making it down as snow or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dr No headed the wrong way with everything possible the next 10 days. Dont shoot the messenger. Wave 1 south and sheared. Wave 2 sheared south. Wave 3 amped cutter and losing the cold air.....sort of resembles yesterday storm. Thereafter beach weather for the foreseeable future. If it wasnt the Euro I would say meh whatever but this is a few runs in a row now where it essentially tries to put a nail in the coffin of winter 18-19. Again just relaying guidance data. Dr No just took that unicorn, sacrificed it, ripped off it's horn and shoved it where the sun doesnt shine. if we strike out on all 3 of the next waves, I'm throwing the towel in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said: Was dead center of that squall, just a dusting on top of fresh snow, the roads were too warm from the sun to accumulate despite pretty nice rates for at least 30 mins. Should drive through a narrow band going south on 95 if it keeps shape that far east in the next 30 mins. Radar looks like rain at my house except for some patches of snow on radar. Not sure if that's making it down as snow or rain. Have had some flurries here off and on so I would think it's snow at your place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 More flurries here with another snow squall moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I normally check out after President's Day. So, yeah I'll wait till what next Wednesday does, then I am finished with Winter. Come on Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dr No headed the wrong way with everything possible the next 10 days. Dont shoot the messenger. Wave 1 south and sheared. Wave 2 sheared south. Wave 3 amped cutter and losing the cold air.....sort of resembles yesterday storm. Thereafter beach weather for the foreseeable future. If it wasnt the Euro I would say meh whatever but this is a few runs in a row now where it essentially tries to put a nail in the coffin of winter 18-19. Again just relaying guidance data. Dr No just took that unicorn, sacrificed it, ripped off it's horn and shoved it where the sun doesnt shine. so basically the same as it has been all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Getting a scattered snow squall here. Watching patches of dark clouds moving through. Temp is 36 though so nothing is sticking. Got up to 40 here as a high for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 The scattered squalls are making for a pretty sunset. Retained a lot more snow than I expected back home. Definitely due to all that sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dr No headed the wrong way with everything possible the next 10 days. Dont shoot the messenger. Wave 1 south and sheared. Wave 2 sheared south. Wave 3 amped cutter and losing the cold air.....sort of resembles yesterday storm. Thereafter beach weather for the foreseeable future. If it wasnt the Euro I would say meh whatever but this is a few runs in a row now where it essentially tries to put a nail in the coffin of winter 18-19. Again just relaying guidance data. Dr No just took that unicorn, sacrificed it, ripped off it's horn and shoved it where the sun doesnt shine. Spring is going to be spectacular Back in Qtown now the ground is white what a novelty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, penndotguy said: so basically the same as it has been all winter. Yep DC hit PA fringe. Bigger systems sleet/ice. Is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep DC hit PA fringe. Bigger systems sleet/ice. Is what it is. Oddly enough I always say "it is what it is"....hmmm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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