RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 39 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said: Old Eskimos are saying the sun is rising in a different spot now. Remember that in the news a few years ago but just some senile men spinning yarns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: UKIE ups the ante 7-10" now SE PA (more N and W and central). Some of that is sleet. Significantly colder and weaker with primary almost comes darn close to wanting to transfer South of the region lol. Ukie has been consistently wrong all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 euro is similar to the gfs, high is in a great position for us but temps don't translate YET. I expect as we get closer, if that high remains in that spot, temps will trend down. Right now it's gfs/eurp vs uk/cmc however I'd take a blend of the 2 right now. 2-4" over to sleet to light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 GEFS significantly better than the OP for the tues event. Many solid hits like the ukie and cmc thrown in there. LR also looks pretty good with a lot of blocking and storm threats throughout. Next week onward, should be threat after threat after threat. We won't win every time but this is 100% better than last month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 17 minutes ago, The Iceman said: GEFS significantly better than the OP for the tues event. Many solid hits like the ukie and cmc thrown in there. LR also looks pretty good with a lot of blocking and storm threats throughout. Next week onward, should be threat after threat after threat. We won't win every time but this is 100% better than last month. Nicely put....plenty of threats once the epic unicorn pattern arrives next weekend but doesn't mean we win every time. Blocking up top and ridge bridge looks off the charts. MJO and tanking SOI support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 No coverage here of the 12z ECM? Funny thing is I was in the MA thread and it was sounding like a train wreck so i tuned out, turns out it's pretty good for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Best event for this region as a whole and it effects both Mon and Tue morning commutes https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019020812/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190213-0300z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 ECM and Ukie on the same page on a system 3-4 days out time for a storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 30 minutes ago, RedSky said: Best event for this region as a whole and it effects both Mon and Tue morning commutes https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019020812/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190213-0300z.html Why do these looke so different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 29 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Why do these looke so different It's different because that map is not counting Monday mornings 1-2" Also they are all too high because a significant portion Of Tuesday's event will be tainted with mix/IP. Would not anticipate 5-6" amounts outside of far N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's different because that map is not counting Monday mornings 1-2" Also they are all too high because a significant portion Of Tuesday's event will be tainted with mix/IP. Would not anticipate 5-6" amounts outside of far N&W. Even with 1-2 added is still not right. Shows 3 in quakertown on one map an over 6 on other. So per your map im getting over 3 from monday morning event? Highly unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 Picked up 0.34" of rain for the day. Current temp 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Weather World likes mild conditions out near the 20th so ummm push back the good pattern to the 25th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Red Winged Blackbirds are back. Earliest I have ever recorded. They came back early last February but not this early. Winter is over? March 2014, they endured 3 significant snows and cold so maybe not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Magnolia is starting to push out... mother nature is cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 I’m chasing snow. Thinking Vermont next weekend and Colorado week after. May not do Vermont if a cutter next weekend. Don’t need to to drive 7 hours to see rain. Last school ski trip to Poconos Sunday. Even up there, not much natural snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Redmorninglight said: I’m chasing snow. Thinking Vermont next weekend and Colorado week after. May not do Vermont if a cutter next weekend. Don’t need to to drive 7 hours to see rain. Last school ski trip to Poconos Sunday. Even up there, not much natural snow this year. If you go to VT go north. Mt Mansfield did great this January, they nearly hit 100" on the stake but the rains have probably lessened the pack over the past few days. Colorado looks real nice a week or two from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Something in central NJ has been running warm for the past few days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, famartin said: Something in central NJ has been running warm for the past few days... Sounds like a riddle, lol. (Hey Ray!). You should stop over in the other thread and re-educate us on sleet if you have a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 That must be awesome out there, Carson Pass, California Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Something to get us in the mood for snow (as if we needed it), from 9 years ago tomorrow, taken in the late afternoon: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The following weeks storm/setup is getting better and better 2018 redux beginning and I still am with last years sentiment late winter action is lame. I experienced the most March snow in my life last winter and it meant little to me i can't even recall the events because all they did was melt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 21 hours ago, penndotguy said: That must be awesome out there, Carson Pass, California I think we all need a field trip out west after this winter. The Northern Oregon volcanoes (Mt Hood/Mt Jefferson) are looking at 90+ inches of snow in the next 240hrs according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 At least 3 snow chances next 10 days after tonight's storm. Get ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 0z euro - the storm that was a cutter a couple days ago is now a southern slider this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: 0z euro - the storm that was a cutter a couple days ago is now a southern slider this weekend And the storm the euro had pounding us with snow and sleet is doing nothing outside my window attm after showing a disastrous morning rush hour for days on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 While everyone is focused on current obs thread, who hacked the FV3? Has no less than 6 snow chances over next 2 weeks. A MECS, 3 SECS, and 2 minor 'events'. That would work for getting to N or AN snowfall that many forecasted at the start of the season. Even tho that would be a bust for me I have fingers crossed this verifies as I enjoy taking my children out to sled snowtube etc. Plus I enjoy tracking etc. Aside from that weenie run, first things first....all guidance has upper level energy riding underneath our region this weekend with models mixed between a hit here and a slider just South. Good spot for now. In the back of my head I wont lie, there are thoughts of "I wonder if the seasonal trend will be at play here with the Mid Atlantic being the bullseye again and our area fringed?". The rich get richer type thing. But it's a couple days early to specify how far S the energy tracks. Active times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 A little snow now also mixing with the IP and ZR here in NW Chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 These would get me to right around normal: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 31 minutes ago, Newman said: These would get me to right around normal: Heck yeah! Hugging the crap out of the FV3 this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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