RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 GFS yesterday was the worst possible, today just need a slight south adjustment through range and it's 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: GFS yesterday was the worst possible, today just need a slight south adjustment through range and it's 2015 Which 2015 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Was on the fence and trying my damnedest to not get sucked into the LR hype but was actually waiting on the CFS weeklies to seal the deal and they didnt disappoint. Add the GEFS/GEPS consistency to the mix and the EPS getting there past day 9 as well as just about every other index and teleconnection known to science and I'm all chips in on the back stretch of winter as we move ahead this month. There really is no denying now where we are headed. Not looking to get a ticket on the train or what not ... I can travel alongside in my snowmobile. Not a question of if it will snow but rather when, how much, and how many more times. Fasten the seatbelts....we are going on a ride we havent been on in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Sunday night wave showing up on the NAM now. @RedSky the ante has been upped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Sunday night wave showing up on the NAM now. @RedSky the ante has been upped! You are so right 2-2.5" is a namming this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 0z GFS rains over lake Superior the unicorn is dead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 This 00z GFS run is giving me deja vu of last night. Looks like the inland low over the great lakes is stronger this run. Not sure what factors are influencing that, but that appears to lessen our timeframe of snow prior to the mix/rain changeover. It's only rendered to hour 120 as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 This entire winter is garbage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 To think 12 hours ago I was lamenting the UKMET too far south solution lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, RedSky said: This entire winter is garbage This is why we have cars and planes.. and trains, which I didn't buy a ticket for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: 0z GFS rains over lake Superior the unicorn is dead The unicorn is after day 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: The unicorn is after day 8 Hanging out with the mythical Yeti I presume 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Well I'll be damned....for those actually following along the Sunday night into Monday thing is slowly starting to look like it may be worth more than just a raised eyebrow. Most guidance outside of the GFS (what is this model good for anymore???) has been trending towards less suppression ie ticks North and more moisture. Looking like a nice light event for part of the region now 1-3"/2-4" type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Sunday night trend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 06z keeps your unicorn dream well alive with a strong Miller b off the coast of Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 9 hours ago, RedSky said: ... the unicorn is dead Have u seen the latest GEFS and EPS?Could be twin unicorns with 2 blocks teaming up to form a ridge bridge. I honestly have no doubt that the second half of this month will be cold and stormy. With the looks up top we *should* have several snow chances. As always you cant shovel potential but I much rather have a pattern with legit potential and tracking opportunities over an early spring with a raging se ridge -PNA and no HL blocking. These progs going forward have plenty of support including important MJO backing and tropical forcing propogation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 am i missing something? why the doom and gloom about the tues-weds? 00z cmc gave the region 3-4 inches, 06z gfs 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: am i missing something? why the doom and gloom about the tues-weds? 00z cmc gave the region 3-4 inches, 06z gfs 3-6". UKIE is 4-8" some sleet in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said: 06z keeps your unicorn dream well alive with a strong Miller b off the coast of Jersey. That's a nice look late week but to be completely honest the best look (the unicorn) is after that storm. That storm is the catalyst to get our blocking setup at HL. Not quite certain how this week coming will play out as far as the boundary and real snowfall potential but bigger picture all the players are lining up for once for a much more favorable look mid month thru early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Latest Wxsim with 6z data has a mainly sleet fest starting as snow on Monday evening with heavy sleet falling from around 1130pm thru 10am Tuesday AM with total snow accumulation of 3" to 5" before changing to ZR with 2.35" of w.e. falling before temps rise above freezing by 4pm on Tuesday PM. Then rain thru about 8pm....this will of course change with the 12z data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 You know it's bad when Seattle has a Winter Storm Warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 GFS stronger with the high to our north through 84 hours/ weaker further south with the plains low...this looks like it will be another nice 3-6" hit to sleet to light rain. Check out the bend in the isobars. Huge CAD signature even though the temps may not do it this run. Overall it looks like a worse outcome however, the trends were in our favor. GFS clearly not keyed in on the CAD for that set up and i predict it won't start keying on it until under 72 hours in. I think we are in a good spot and the trends are favoring us at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 here's what I mean: There's absolutely no way SE PA especially the LV is rain with the CAD in place; no chance. This is an event that is going to trend colder and colder to the last minute as long as the high is in that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Hugging the CMC....1-3"/2-4" type deal Sunday night then snow moves back in quickly with a nice thump before sleet then rain. Looks ALOT like the UK: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 NAM hi res CAD continues to improve not surprisingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 GFS is predicting 4" rain next week from two cutters. A week that will have temperatures at or below normal. Horrid despicable "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 In other news 3"+ rain weeks since last July must number between 15-20 now. Is it cosmic rays or Earth shifting on it's axis something crazy is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Old Eskimos are saying the sun is rising in a different spot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 UKIE ups the ante 7-10" now SE PA (more N and W and central). Some of that is sleet. Significantly colder and weaker with primary almost comes darn close to wanting to transfer South of the region lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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