Blue Dream Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yes. CMC better too. Hopefully we continue to see this. Hopefully that becomes the trend. ICON still has the massive rainstorm...that model is awful though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 I expect CAD signature to improve as we get closer. That 1042 mb high means business. clown map, but signifies the potential for this event. Only thing is where do we go in 5 days.... improvements towards a coastal exiting obx? let's hope. great trends thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, JMcCaughey42 said: Hopefully that becomes the trend. ICON still has the massive rainstorm...that model is awful though right? It's not the best that's all I can say about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, The Iceman said: I expect CAD signature to improve as we get closer. That 1044 mb high means business. clown map, but signifies the potential for this event. Only thing is where do we go in 5 days.... improvements towards a coastal exiting obx? let's hope. great trends thus far. Yes...need to see the good trends and not the direction we were headed yesterday which was opposite. Still like a thump to mix to drizzle/rain but who knows....that could be off the table in a few days but that's the look I'm still seeing for now. CAD looks good, 50/50 and confluence looks good. One of the only things I see that always tends to turn us over or screw us is the slp in the G Lakes. Keep weakening that or rid it entirely and we are looking at a different scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said: Hopefully that becomes the trend. ICON still has the massive rainstorm...that model is awful though right? good in the short range, bad to awful in the medium range. i've noticed though when it sides with the euro/uk it tends to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 This is the first time this entire winter the GFS#1 is projecting more than <1" in the medium range imby, no joke. It feels like 78,2010 and 2015 JB. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, RedSky said: This is the first time this entire winter the GFS#1 is projecting more than <1" in the medium range imby, no joke. It feels like 78,2010 and 2015 JB. be careful with TT, some is sleet. Still good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Big changes out west on the gfs. Went to a more ukie type look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Sleet is good from mid February on it's like kevlar against the atomic sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: Sleet is good from mid February on it's like kevlar against the atomic sun angle. aren't all sun angles atomic sun angles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, zenmsav6810 said: aren't all sun angles atomic sun angles? yes and their radiation becomes unbearable beginning mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looks like a fun weekend of tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 GFS took away the great look for next weekend it and the euro both had lol you always have to pay for getting some snow it's a rule in the weenie handbook, except for winters 78,2010,2015 they had an asterisk that said does not apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Unfortunately the fv3hiv isn't running I wanted to see if it would project 4' of snow next week now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 The crazy uncle snow map. Everybody that's had snow this winter get's it, everybody left out doesn't lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: Unfortunately the fv3hiv isn't running I wanted to see if it would project 4' of snow next week now Weak clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Weak clipper You didn't see the run did you it's huge then keeps destroying through the end of the run i went to atari graphics noaa JB has the effit3 on his side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 34 minutes ago, RedSky said: You didn't see the run did you it's huge then keeps destroying through the end of the run i went to atari graphics noaa JB has the effit3 on his side! Used the ncep site. Maybe an old run then. Misread your original post when u said end of next week I thought u were referring to the late week HECS hinted at by gfs and euro which FV3 has that as a weak clipper. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 ECM GFS and UKMET all different 12z Euro went all in on the winter of azz thing, it hit's to our south on Monday morning, kills the mid week event and gets all warm and rainy the next weekend on what had been a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: be careful with TT, some is sleet. Still good though Is the Kuchera ratio 10:1? I doubt SEPA will see that high of a ratio if its close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM GFS and UKMET all different 12z Euro went all in on the winter of azz thing, it hit's to our south on Monday morning, kills the mid week event and gets all warm and rainy the next weekend on what had been a MECS It trended better for mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just going to pretend i only saw the GFS today and go about my business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Just going to pretend i only saw the GFS today and go about my business. Hug the icon too for Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hug the icon too for Sunday night. I'll take nothing Sunday for something midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 EPS improved means for the tues event. euro itself was a good trend... more towards to obx coastal idea... weird precip orientation though. all in all i liiekd what I saw at 12z...lots of time for this one to evolve into something we really like. the ingredients are in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 WOW 3rd straight GEFS run where a major block is showing up in the long range. I don;t think this one is noise. I'm on the 2nd half feb snow train. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, The Iceman said: WOW 3rd straight GEFS run where a major block is showing up in the long range. I don;t think this one is noise. I'm on the 2nd half feb snow train. How much are tickets? I was buying them all winter. To be fair, compared to last evening the models have improved drastically in midrange and LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 NAVGEM was all snow I95 n and w but progressive bias probably playing in as coastal develops off mid Atl coast and heads ENE. Gfs OP has a tucked coastal transfer fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Hug the Navgem! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 hours ago, The Iceman said: WOW 3rd straight GEFS run where a major block is showing up in the long range. I don;t think this one is noise. I'm on the 2nd half feb snow train. Choo choo!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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