E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

[penndotguy]

I also took note that the temps this weekend have trended colder as well just yesterday they were forecast near 50 now I see low to mid 40’s for out here

[RedSky]

11 hours ago, Newman said:

Thursday possibly some snow showers. 

Becomes rain showers from just a couple miles north of my yard. I swear i should have gone to Florida hate cold and rain

 

[RedSky]

6 hours ago, penndotguy said:

I also took note that the temps this weekend have trended colder as well just yesterday they were forecast near 50 now I see low to mid 40’s for out here

New GFS sideswipes us with an arctic shot early next week, that came from nowhere literally compared to the euro

 

[The Iceman]

While the LR doesn't scream torch, all of the cold is shallow/transient. The pattern of cold cold cold warm up, rain, back to cold has no chance of changing with a sustained +NAO. Until we see that, the pattern will continue. Christmas threat has a chance but we will need the timing to be just right, I think coastal hugger/coast plain runner track or suppression will be the case. Good news for inland areas. Hard to get that perfect track without blocking for 95.

[Newman]

The AK ridging will continue to grow in merit as we enter the latter half of December. The Aleutian low, however, will determine how it sets up. If it retrogrades far enough west we will have a much better look than if it stays put in the GOAK. Looking at the EPS, you can clearly see it correcting it's bias of dumping the negatives into the west coast and forcing a SE Ridge to pop. This isn't me wishcasting or anything. Do your own research and look back at this entire winter so far (and other winters for that matter) and you can clearly see how the EPS corrects over time from a trough out west to a trough in the east. The GEFS, and the GEPS to a lesser degree, have been schooling the EPS the past couple of weeks with regards to this pattern. The EPS was arguing for a 5-10 day period of warmth and now, what do you know, we're looking at a transient 3 day mild period, if that. Blocking will likely grow more likely as we get closer to Christmas as well with a SSWE likely. However, we're not going to see a huge 4-SD block, but rather a block just strong enough to hold down the SE ridge. I really like what I'm seeing after the 23rd. BTW, I wouldn't put too much stock into the MJO phases we're going to be going through. Although a phase 5 would argue for warmer east coast conditions, the MJO will be rather weak and the ENSO phase will likely override that. A P5 MJO in the current ENSO phase (Region 3.4 at .5C or higher) actually results in N to BN conditions in the east.

[KamuSnow]

Not much of a snow pic, but this is leftover from the 0.4" we got last Wednesday (a couple of other well shaded spots have some thin coatings as well). Just to illustrate how chilly it's been for the last week. More persistent cold than modeled from range for sure.

[RedSky]

Who is paying attention to what the next system is doing? New GFS tracks it south of PA! How can this possibly happen this was a clear cut lakes cutter for days I don't think I have ever seen this happen.

 

[The Iceman]

4 hours ago, Newman said:

The AK ridging will continue to grow in merit as we enter the latter half of December. The Aleutian low, however, will determine how it sets up. If it retrogrades far enough west we will have a much better look than if it stays put in the GOAK. Looking at the EPS, you can clearly see it correcting it's bias of dumping the negatives into the west coast and forcing a SE Ridge to pop. This isn't me wishcasting or anything. Do your own research and look back at this entire winter so far (and other winters for that matter) and you can clearly see how the EPS corrects over time from a trough out west to a trough in the east. The GEFS, and the GEPS to a lesser degree, have been schooling the EPS the past couple of weeks with regards to this pattern. The EPS was arguing for a 5-10 day period of warmth and now, what do you know, we're looking at a transient 3 day mild period, if that. Blocking will likely grow more likely as we get closer to Christmas as well with a SSWE likely. However, we're not going to see a huge 4-SD block, but rather a block just strong enough to hold down the SE ridge. I really like what I'm seeing after the 23rd. BTW, I wouldn't put too much stock into the MJO phases we're going to be going through. Although a phase 5 would argue for warmer east coast conditions, the MJO will be rather weak and the ENSO phase will likely override that. A P5 MJO in the current ENSO phase (Region 3.4 at .5C or higher) actually results in N to BN conditions in the east.

The GEFS at 12z is doing this same thing unless it has the same bias. We get a brief period of blocking centered around the 23-26th with an arctic outbreak but that leaves us with really only one threat to score. Better than 0 but as we just saw a pattern can look favorable but we just get unlucky. I mean how often does a storm get squashed below DC in early december? But the blocking quickly broke down and we've had no real threats again until now christmas even though it's been cold. I would definitely call the xmas storm a threat at this time, but a lot can change at this range both good and bad irt that storm. After that period though, the -NAO quickly breaks down, heads back towards positive, the SE Ridge begins to build back in. Hopefully the SSWE will give us a sustained -NAO at some point so we can get a parade of threats where we aren't relying on just one to cash in like March of last year but  SSW changes could take weeks not days. We don't really know until we get closer. The NAO is going to rule the winter and if it continues to be mainly positive, we will be relying on lucky timing between cold air and precipitation. Just because the pattern doesn't indicate a torch in the LR,  doesn't always mean that it's favorable for synoptic snow events as we've seen the first half of this month. I think our best bet is going to be clippers/minor events  for the foreseeable future which can be fun even if minor. Hopefully there'll will be signs in the LR ensembles(not the weeklies) of a lasting pattern change, I don't think it being pushed back until mid jan is unrealistic as the euro weeklies showed. Hopefully the SSW can bring change in sooner like you mentioned though.

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Who is paying attention to what the next system is doing? New GFS tracks it south of PA! How can this possibly happen this was a clear cut lakes cutter for days I don't think I have ever seen this happen.

 

Too bad there is literally no cold air around. Still storm totals of 3-4" totals in places, way more juiced up than any of the other globals.

[Newman]

2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

The GEFS at 12z is doing this same thing unless it has the same bias. We get a brief period of blocking centered around the 23-26th with an arctic outbreak but that leaves us with really only one threat to score. Better than 0 but as we just saw a pattern can look favorable but we just get unlucky. I mean how often does a storm get squashed below DC in early december? But the blocking quickly broke down and we've had no real threats again until now christmas even though it's been cold. I would definitely call the xmas storm a threat at this time, but a lot can change at this range both good and bad irt that storm. After that period though, the -NAO quickly breaks down, heads back towards positive, the SE Ridge begins to build back in. Hopefully the SSWE will give us a sustained -NAO at some point so we can get a parade of threats where we aren't relying on just one to cash in like March of last year but  SSW changes could take weeks not days. We don't really know until we get closer. The NAO is going to rule the winter and if it continues to be mainly positive, we will be relying on lucky timing between cold air and precipitation. Just because the pattern doesn't indicate a torch in the LR,  doesn't always mean that it's favorable for synoptic snow events as we've seen the first half of this month. I think our best bet is going to be clippers/minor events  for the foreseeable future which can be fun even if minor. Hopefully there'll will be signs in the LR ensembles(not the weeklies) of a lasting pattern change, I don't think it being pushed back until mid jan is unrealistic as the euro weeklies showed. Hopefully the SSW can bring change in sooner like you mentioned though.

A lot of models have the bias of holding back the trough in the west around the Rockies, but the EPS is notorious for it. Lowering thicknesses because of naturally colder temperatures due to high elevation correlate to lower average virtual temperatures, which lower thicknesses again, lowering average virtual temperatures again, creating a bias toward amplifying a trough over the Rocky Mountains. However, all you have to see is the AK ridging that correlates to a trough in the lakes/east. The 23rd to 31st time period will feature a storm for most of the Philly area IMO, likely west of 95. This look will produce a storm on the east coast. Wet or white TBD as we get closer.

 

[RedSky]

Weather World going with 23 of the next 35 days above average. That would make it a second half winter at best, that early snow is starting to loom as a bad omen. They are usually pretty good on their 30 day outlooks they nail most of them. Kinda very much have to score on that one small window around Christmas time to save this month. 

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

On 12/7/2018 at 12:44 AM, RedSky said:

The next two weeks look bleak and uneventful, like you have to pay for the fast start in November

 

There was something that showed date of first significant snowfall with rest of the seasons snow. It was 4 SD's everywhere, even out west. I think January-February might be eventful just because. 

[The Iceman]

14 hours ago, RedSky said:

Weather World going with 23 of the next 35 days above average. That would make it a second half winter at best, that early snow is starting to loom as a bad omen. They are usually pretty good on their 30 day outlooks they nail most of them. Kinda very much have to score on that one small window around Christmas time to save this month. 

 

 

I don't know about that because I don't see it being warm per say. I see a continuance of where we've been with a progressive flow with cold air but nothing to hold it in place when synoptic systems approach. We will have shots when the NAO dips liken in the 23rd period but are going to need to rely on good timing in order to score for philly and immediate burbs. I don't see it being all that warm though just unfavorable for big snows.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Quick post regarding the threat during Dec 24-26 give or take a day which I mentioned last week. Wont go into crazy detail as anything at this range is just speculation. However there have been decent signals showing up still for 'something' during this period centered around Christmas Day. 

General look is for an active NS with a trof near the GL and energy waves zipping thru and stj energy moving along (less of a trof settling in the SW look).  Will come down to timing but a couple of scenarios look possible. Southern wave coming up the coast (eps, euro control, and gfs op) followed behind with a clipper or a gradient pattern with overrunning. Precip type obviously very much up in the air at this point. Suffice it to say this is our next threat window still and the looks have improved with overnight runs.

Eta: Emergence of ridging in the Carribbean could be a blessing...some positives taken away. Could go either way keep in mind at this range.

[Rtd208]

Occasional flurries here.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Occasional flurries here.

Same here in Warminster off and on.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Again, it's an eternity out there in time  but I would take my chances and roll the dice with this type of signal:

 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Again, it's an eternity out there in time  but I would take my chances and roll the dice with this type of signal:

 

Same...I'd rather gamble with temps than suppression...lol

[KamuSnow]

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Occasional flurries here.

Doesn't even look like snow here, 43F and mostly sunny. Warmest day in over a week.

[ChescoWx]

Of note today is the 11th straight day without measurable precipitation. This is the longest dry stretch in 2018 and the longest dry period in over 14 months since the 15 straight dry days we experienced here in Chester County Pa from 9/20/17 thru 10/4/17

[zenmsav6810]

27 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Of note today is the 11th straight day without measurable precipitation. This is the longest dry stretch in 2018 and the longest dry period in over 14 months since the 15 straight dry days we experienced here in Chester County Pa from 9/20/17 thru 10/4/17

Should be a close call with breaking the annual precip record. Also bear creek opens today! They drained our snowmaking pond so they could fill it back up this weekend which is perfect! Driver at work said it was snowing like crazy and sideways just NE of Scranton where about 1.5" had fallen. Flurries here at work in Green Lane around 10:00 am

[Birds~69]

2 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Doesn't even look like snow here, 43F and mostly sunny. Warmest day in over a week.

Man,it's been pretty much been dark/low clouds all day here...temps in the 30s. Looks like snow but nothing...

[The Iceman]

gray, cloudy, all around miserable looking. temps are in the low 40s so it feels like a heatwave with no wind lol Christmas threat is looking like our best threat for some time...GEFS also breaks down the pattern there after...and the OP looked like a freakin Nina. I am starting to like the xmas threat though. If we can get the NS to dig more and scour out the pac air, we may be in business. I think rain is a much much bigger threat than suppression.

[Newman]

Just to play around with, Member 18 on the GEFS shows 3 straight snowstorms around the Christmas time frame.

First storm on the 23rd:

 

2nd storm on Christmas (biggest one):

 

3rd storm on the 28th:

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Just to play around with, Member 18 on the GEFS shows 3 straight snowstorms around the Christmas time frame.

First storm on the 23rd:

 

2nd storm on Christmas (biggest one):

 

3rd storm on the 28th:

Yippee 3rd one isn't rain here 

 

[Birds~69]

I'll take door number 2....

[KamuSnow]

Just now, Birds~69 said:

I'll take door number 2....

Same here but all 3 would be fine, even if #1 is rain here.

[Birds~69]

3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Same here but all 3 would be fine, even if #1 is rain here.

May as well have the first one be rain then snow to get  your pile going. Hell, I'll take a 1-3 incher Xmas/Xmas day....

[KamuSnow]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

May as well have the first one be rain then snow to get  your pile going. Hell, I'll take a 1-3 incher Xmas/Xmas day....

Yeah my expectations are low but we'll see how it looks next week.

[zenmsav6810]

Phase them or storm be damned!!