RedSky Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just went and looked not even close not even on mos data. Closest I saw was low to mid 40s with the gradient setup to our South thru wildwood NJ and 60s south of there. Only model that has the gradient this close to us so umm yeah only 15-20 degrees or so off the mark bud. I see 60F kissing parts of south Jersey, close enough for further north adjustments. EPS is well N&W for next week - rainstorm. GFS/GEM/EPS not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 In other news had the AC on in the car returning from the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 High today in East Nantmeal was 62.4 - our warmest day since the 68.9 back on November 2nd. Nowhere near the record for today of 66.0 set back in 1991. Of interest down the shore in Sea Isle City we were able to overcome the sea breeze unlike yesterday where the chilly 36 degree ocean won out and kept temps in the 40's. Today we reached 61.6 at the beach. Hope all enjoyed the last couple days....reality returns and liking some snow prospect for the next Mon-Wed time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 52 minutes ago, RedSky said: I see 60F kissing parts of south Jersey, close enough for further north adjustments. EPS is well N&W for next week - rainstorm. GFS/GEM/EPS not good. Look at the mid 30s not too far N. Same adjustment could theoretically be made. Think positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 53 minutes ago, RedSky said: I see 60F kissing parts of south Jersey, close enough for further north adjustments. EPS is well N&W for next week - rainstorm. GFS/GEM/EPS not good. Eps is not well N and W. It is a typical setup for our area with a coastal transfer and thump to mix or rain dryslot scenario around I95 where n and w cashes in. It's not far off from a good hit at all. I know you're frustrated with the season but cherry picking worst prog maps isnt the way to vent your frustration imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 hours ago, RedSky said: I see 60F kissing parts of south Jersey, close enough for further north adjustments. EPS is well N&W for next week - rainstorm. GFS/GEM/EPS not good. I seriously wonder whether you actually enjoy snow and tracking threats? The one time you decide NOT to hug the GFS/FV3 @18z and both are SECS/MECS even down close to I95. Heck the GFS OP crushes Monmouth and even gives ULL love when it passes overhead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 GGEM stands alone for next week as of this time....not that it really matters much the model is just bad since the 'upgrade '. Get yer trackin shoes on boys.....it's go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I seriously wonder whether you actually enjoy snow and tracking threats? The one time you decide NOT to hug the GFS/FV3 @18z and both are SECS/MECS even down close to I95. Heck the GFS OP crushes Monmouth and even gives ULL love when it passes overhead. RU serious that was 12z guidance before 18z, one new run cycle and this is going to stick? And the fvfu is completely worthless not worth quoting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Who remembers this guy https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1092769611748130821 J&B going with the 78,2015, 2010 winter analogs rest of the way lmao 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 They say the big dogs are sniffed out by several models well in advance. GFS fully on board now with the threat. Again the GGEM is the last model not showing a SECS/MECS now for the Northeast next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Needless to say the end result will be nothing like what the GFS showed it this super complicated setup the poor model is out of it's league. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 So the GFS is a MECS, FV3 a suppressed VA blizzard, and the GGEM cutter mainly rain. Gonna be sleepless nights ahead....that much I can forecast with accuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Needless to say the end result will be nothing like what the GFS showed it this super complicated setup the poor model is out of it's league. Yeah the GFS is setting up a classic Miller b screwjob for DC and probably even philly regardless what surface shows. Red you would actually probably fare best with that look tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yeah the GFS is setting up a classic Miller b screwjob for DC and probably even philly regardless what surface shows. Red you would actually probably fare best with that look tbh. I can't do any worse it's all gravy from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Fv3 is a bomb actually. Transfers to the coast early and we get a thump but the low develops inside the coastline of VA and heads due N so thump to mix to rain to dryslot verbatim for philly. Shift it east about 75 miles give or take and MECS borderline HECS. Just happy we are tracking again. Btw all models have an 'appetizer' light snow Sunday night into Monday AM for most. So first things first probably good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 0z euro goes cutter, go figure but a front thump gets us anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 I wouldnt get too caught up in any specific outcome at this point even tho I threw out my past history feel earlier with similar setups ie thump to mix to rain/drizzle/dryslot especially in and round i95. We are already walking a very fine line with this being such a fragile setup and being 6 days out still has the potential to let us down. Not a whole heck of alot of wiggle room along I95 and tbh that in itself concerns me. Will echo what I mentioned 24 hours ago before coastaln plain folks start flocking to Shoprite for eggs, bread, and milk....for now this strongly favors areas well N and W of I95. For this to change we probably need energy to eject faster and run into ridging causing a quicker transfer and/or a weaker primary with the coastal development to happen closer to the OBX region. Plenty of time to go either way and ens members have a good mix of solutions with most that still get I95 into measurable snow....some light/moderate scenarios with changeover and even a few HECS tossed in with several smack dab in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 For kicks and giggles FV3 yet another weenien run with a few MECS+ thrown at us thru the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I wouldnt get too caught up in any specific outcome at this point even tho I threw out my past history feel earlier with similar setups ie thump to mix to rain/drizzle/dryslot especially in and round i95. We are already walking a very fine line with this being such a fragile setup and being 6 days out still has the potential to let us down. Not a whole heck of alot of wiggle room along I95 and tbh that in itself concerns me. Will echo what I mentioned 24 hours ago before coastaln plain folks start flocking to Shoprite for eggs, bread, and milk....for now this strongly favors areas well N and W of I95. For this to change we probably need energy to eject faster and run into ridging causing a quicker transfer and/or a weaker primary with the coastal development to happen closer to the OBX region. Plenty of time to go either way and ens members have a good mix of solutions with most that still get I95 into measurable snow....some light/moderate scenarios with changeover and even a few HECS tossed in with several smack dab in the middle. Feel like things might finally be going our way. Threats inside 7 days and the long range looks to have potential as well. Hoping your 60 degree rule comes to fruition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said: Feel like things might finally be going our way. Threats inside 7 days and the long range looks to have potential as well. Hoping your 60 degree rule comes to fruition! GFS Mos data has 65 for Philly on Friday fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 This analog was brought up in the MA thread, but 2/8-2/11 1994 looks like a really good analog for next week. We have a colder airmass to work with as well. Of course we are going to be relying on timing but it's very possible to get a good thump before a changeover on 95. Even if mon/tues miss, I still believe we will see more chances next week. Overall I'm liking the pattern in the LR, we should see several chances. Whether it works out remains to be seen but this is much better than cold/cutter/cold/cuttter nothing on horizon pattern we've been in most of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: This analog was brought up in the MA thread, but 2/8-2/11 1994 looks like a really good analog for next week. We have a colder airmass to work with as well. Of course we are going to be relying on timing but it's very possible to get a good thump before a changeover on 95. Even if mon/tues miss, I still believe we will see more chances next week. Overall I'm liking the pattern in the LR, we should see several chances. Whether it works out remains to be seen but this is much better than cold/cutter/cold/cuttter nothing on horizon pattern we've been in most of winter. Can you refresh my memory on that storm or share a link with a description/evolution of its history? Thanks man, I don't quite remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, JMcCaughey42 said: Can you refresh my memory on that storm or share a link with a description/evolution of its history? Thanks man, I don't quite remember that one. No problem man, I actually used this site from our very own @famartin to look it up when I saw it brought up in the other thread. Really awesome site to relive past storms. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/08-Feb-94.html http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/11-Feb-94.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: No problem man, I actually used this site from our very own @famartin to look it up when I saw it brought up in the other thread. Really awesome site to relive past storms. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/08-Feb-94.html http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/11-Feb-94.html Awesome, thanks! I wouldn't complain about an event like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 we're going to have cold air around and a steady moisture train, we should be able to manage at least something meaningful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Go ahead Redsky chime in and remind us how 12z is going complete opposite of what we wanted to see for next week. Sunday PM and early Monday may be the one to watch as another pattern relax may be coming before the hopefully verifying decent looks for week 3 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 meh not going to fret over one model suite. there are large scale changes occurring in the next 6-10 days that I don't believe the models have a grasp on yet. Not to mention we have 4 systems to get through before next week. Jury is still out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 I'm in awe as the GFS brings up every perturbation possible to bring snow to the south and then rain here and it's not alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: I'm in awe as the GFS brings up every perturbation possible to bring snow to the south and then rain here and it's not alone. Winter of azz will live in infamy. Cant wait to tell my grandkids stories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Winter of azz will live in infamy. Cant wait to tell my grandkids stories. Ahhh yes tales of the beach days, the deep snows in Virginia and our floods and how high I measured the mud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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