The Iceman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Fv-3 GFS is hit after hit after hit starting late next week. None perfect but all solid 3-6" events that lead to below. This is the potential I was talking about above. Now we are still 8 days away though and it's all going to depend where the front stalls out. I am beginning to really like the potential though. quick somebody say something negative to talk me back to reality lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Fv-3 GFS is hit after hit after hit starting late next week. None perfect but all solid 3-6" events that lead to below. This is the potential I was talking about above. Now we are still 8 days away though and it's all going to depend where the front stalls out. I am beginning to really like the potential though. quick somebody say something negative to talk me back to reality lol L-Town in the house! Did you go to Neshaminy? Also, how reliable has the FV3 been this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said: L-Town in the house! Did you go to Neshaminy? Also, how reliable has the FV3 been this winter? Just moved back actually not too long ago! I went to Pennsbury, class of 09. FV-3 has been better than the gfs in the medium-longer range imo but worse in the near term range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, The Iceman said: Just moved back actually not too long ago! I went to Pennsbury, class of 09. FV-3 has been better than the gfs in the medium-longer range imo but worse in the near term range. Nice, I grew up in Twin Oaks...Neshaminy 06. Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 51 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Fv-3 GFS is hit after hit after hit starting late next week. None perfect but all solid 3-6" events that lead to below. This is the potential I was talking about above. Now we are still 8 days away though and it's all going to depend where the front stalls out. I am beginning to really like the potential though. quick somebody say something negative to talk me back to reality lol Its 8+ days out still lol. Seriously tho this is what I was referencing earlier irt hitting 60F next week first then we can start tracking lots of threats. We've had challenges being on the right side of the boundary all season. I could see this setting up over the region for sure. It is going to come to whether or not the damn nao can dip at times to tuck the boundary underneath us. All hope imo depends on that feature. Even a transient neg nao will work. There is so much moisture moving thru the stj eventually one wave should dip south of us. Lock in a neg nao and end of season could be....dare I say....'epic'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 I have a Phd in negative now let me try. The fv369 has been my best fantasy fake snow model all winter, A+ all the way. Day 8-15 it's given me my 60". Recently made a post about it delivering me 6" total anafront and todays snow combined and that was medium range. I got it behind the 80's AVN model personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 One thing thats as inevitable as the sun rising in the east is a miller b that nails NYC to Boston and screws central jersey. I would bet the house on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 Current temp is 15 here. Shorts and t-shirt weather compared to the last couple of nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 11F busting past the forecast low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 9F what happened to the cold retreat suppose to happen starting tonight or can't lows be forecast anymore * not shorts and tshirts weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 0z runs are a disaster looks like the toilet flushed again on long range potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 Current temp is 12 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 5 hours ago, RedSky said: 0z runs are a disaster looks like the toilet flushed again on long range potential Really not sure what you are looking at. If you are looking for an epic unicorn pattern that can spit out a HECS then yeah you're probably searching for a needle in a haystack. If you are looking for a stretch of very active weather coming out of the W and SW with the PV sending lobes towards our area repeatedly (not direct like we had but grazing blows to the N which is what we want we dont want overwhelming cold and suppression) and a flattish SE Ridge and lots of tracking opportunities then after next weeks pattern relax and reload will be your cup of tea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I think I may have finally bottomed out at 10 with the fresh snow cover and calm winds. Currently 12 and partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 Temp going up nicely this morning, current temp 19 Overnight low 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Fresh snow and calm winds led to a season low of 6f this morning at KWWD. A bit surprised. Beautiful day with a nice rebound in temps. Just an aside, I see it’s been cold and snowy in the UK. If my memories from the 80s are correct, cold and snow there often precluded a similar period here in the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 low of 5 up to 13 headed to freezing at best. working on 4 days with 5" snow cover that will surely be gone by Monday. I'm kind of looking forward to a few AN days. The rodent says early Spring, not buying it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Well hopefully this is right. VP moving east of the Date Line would get things looking favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Meh, we have a gradient pattern setting up. Hopefully we can get a decent press to force the baroclinic zone south of us but right now I'd favor I-84 and north for the coming week. And if we do get the press we want? Likely more of an ice threat than snow. We'll see. There's definitely no shortage of storms riding the gradient coming out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Enjoy this coming week to relax and get out a little. Very active pattern coming after Feb 9 give or take a day. I don't see a HECS look but overrunning events with the gradient boundary nearby and a nearly endless train of waves. Should be a really fun month developing behind the thirs-fri system this week. Deeper thought i mentioned in the mid atl thread fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Couple of opportunities on the 12z gfs in the 7-10 day range. Nice to see immediately following a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 12z euro is torch to couple days of normal cold and then cutter I don't see all the excitement. Even the overly enthusiastic and flawed GFS #2 shows the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Topped out at 32F. The cold without snow keeps over performing winter of azz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: 12z euro is torch to couple days of normal cold and then cutter I don't see all the excitement. Even the overly enthusiastic and flawed GFS #2 shows the same thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, Stormman96 said: What to believe??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I'm going with the OP's because they are OP's for a reason they are the most accurate, the ensembles constant long range snow solutions have been utter garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 The GFS twins 0z runs are super concentrated azz through mid month, it's like an even colder, cuttery rainy version of the last two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 4 hours ago, RedSky said: The GFS twins 0z runs are super concentrated azz through mid month, it's like an even colder, cuttery rainy version of the last two months. It's comical at this point....when the Atlantic side finally looks solid on all the ens the PAC goes to utter crap. EPS the only holdout at this point tho tbh I'm not sure I trust the GEFS anyway. Still hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 Temp going up pretty fast here this morning, current temp 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Euro brings mjo into cod in the next couple of days before bringing it into P8 around the 11th. 0z eps brings the trough east and squashes the se ridge around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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