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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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13 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Their quite busy tracking two and possibly three long range threats and talking PDIII in the the MA thread haven'y you gotten the memo?

 

Nah didnt really delve into LR specific threats tbh. But yeah I did see mention of some dates. Not thrilled yet. Like I said next tracking for me is seeing if we can hit 60 next week then I assure you if we do we will be tracking 'something' shortly after. One day at a time.

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Fwiw the pattern Feb 10-20 is going to be the best we had all winter, if it ends up delivering two snowstorms to the MA only is another story...

 

I won't disagree it looks good on paper. But cmon man we've been here at least 4 times this winter already where the pattern looks amazing in 12 days, the usual suspects are cherry picking the details to show how it cant NOT happen, then within 7-8 days the good looks turn just meh yet still delivers some goods to the Mid Atl. Maybe this time will be different. Until we get within 120 hours I'm on the outside looking in. I'd rather be the last one on the train than be the conductor repeatedly driving a trainwreck. Here's hoping for the best!

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

0z NAM went North last minute with light snow tomorrow heaviest band right across the M/D line into Northern DE and across into S NJ. Some light accumulations even up here if the shift N is to be believed. Fluffy powder good ratio stuff.

I have family and friends who live in the 3 southernmost counties of NJ. I send out forecasts to a bunch of people and have for years w snow and big events. My call for Fri was 1-3” when I made it yesterday for those counties. I feel pretty good about it still.

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17 hours ago, RedSky said:

Fwiw the pattern Feb 10-20 is going to be the best we had all winter, if it ends up delivering two snowstorms to the MA only is another story...

 

Overnight guidance unanimously went opposite and is showing that period now as one of the worst of the winter with several systems setting up like a freight train line and tracking far to our N and W.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Overnight guidance unanimously went opposite and is showing that period now as one of the worst of the winter with several systems setting up like a freight train line and tracking far to our N and W.

Yea, ready to start tracking severe weather honestly, hard to believe, at least down this way, we have had yet another winter that is MIA

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Depends on how u define 'worst'. I would rather have the cold but dry look than the train of storms that we keep repeatedly mssing to the N and W.

Let me guess, the Twitter experts are now saying Feb 20-march 10 is going to be an epic pattern. At some point these guys will be right, may not be til 2020, but broken clock and everything.  Can't believe the amount still willing to go down with the ship. 

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ensembles are split around day 8. half want to keep the positive NAO and keep the pac garbage pretty much ending winter, and the other half tank the nao and give us a pretty decent look especially for overruninng. A slight step back from 12z yesterday where it was more of a 60/40 split. As ralph said above, anything outside 5 days is a crap shoot. Unless it's a cutter, those always end up verifying 10 days out lol

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9 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

ensembles are split around day 8. half want to keep the positive NAO and keep the pac garbage pretty much ending winter, and the other half tank the nao and give us a pretty decent look especially for overruninng. A slight step back from 12z yesterday where it was more of a 60/40 split. As ralph said above, anything outside 5 days is a crap shoot. Unless it's a cutter, those always end up verifying 10 days out lol

I posted in Mid Atl that a blend of the 2 camps has basically been what has verified all season. No epic snow look nor epic fail look. Middle of the road generally with more of a transient vibe overall. I dont see overwhelming evidence one side or the other for the mid Feb pattern. I guess if u r banking on a Nino-ish end to the season (tho still not even classified as weak) one would generally assume we get some better looks even if transient. Weve seen this in recent years even in a Nina so I'm not sure if the HL blocking is truly a function of the enso state OR more of a decadal phenomena in which case then back loaded winter is certainly possible. I'm hesitant to dive in to either camp attm but will say I have been chirping about getting ONE late season widespread SECS+ before all is said and done and I stick to that. It may take a fluke and transient meh setup but I think there is a higher chance for it than normal as we head to the finish line. I threw some bait out in other forums to see if any of the other frequent posters are seeing anything similar and lo and behold it seems I'm not alone in this thinking. Some interesting analog years being tossed around that were back loaded as well but most of you know how I feel about weight of particular analogs. 

Headed to Melrose Diner to see if anyone 'in the know' can leak some further info.

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1 hour ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

Next weekend looks interesting per today's 12z GFS run. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

At the very least it is looking hella active after we get thru the torch. I like the parade of big highs to the north, now we just have to rely on track. Hopefully the mjo moves into 8, the nao actually goes negative because we could see a monster month if so with all of this moisture.

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