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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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Just now, hazwoper said:

18Z GFS says you'll cash in mid-February....what could possibly go wrong between now and then?  

image.thumb.png.310c5a7020f9cce7c0559598c3d7de59.png

Someone else said it earlier.....the euro weeklies have almost verified complete opposite of their weeks 2-4 looks. If the same holds true this time late February is going to rock! I wouldnt hold my breath tho.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Friday looking more and more like a non event.. shocker. Thank god we're torching next week.

Today's GFS - Two big cutters, another arctic blast,  one and maybe two deep southern slider hits and heading to a pattern breakdown after that. 

 

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14 hours ago, RedSky said:

The evidence keeps gathering that we get into the "sweet" pattern the second half of february, entering the end of winter and strong sun angle this gives me no joy

 

If by sweet pattern you mean a spring look with a PAC-driven flow and no semblance of sustained HL blocking then yes.....sweet. MJO is trying to move back into a 5/6 amplitude phase. That would be an exclamation point.

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HDERPS is funny but accurate at the same time. Really emphasizing the High Pressure and dry air mass look over PA lol. I agree with this look.....high and dry tomorrow with a snow shower or two. One inch lollis at best but generally a dusting/costing for most . HP eating away any moisture as the area of precip advances. Another good show of how we can fail this winter.

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_35.png

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Just a DC kinda winter where SE PA consistently gets fringed and NYC-BOS gets shutout. Really quite amazing when you think about it. One would think eventually the Northeast is going to pay for this just a matter of when...late Feb? March? 2020? I am not a believer of 'atmospheric memory' but do believe patterns (thus why they are called 'patterns') do tend to setup and repeat. I'm more a believer in atmospheric balance which is a foundation of how much atmospheric science is truly based.

rgem_asnow_neus_36.png

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5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If by sweet pattern you mean a spring look with a PAC-driven flow and no semblance of sustained HL blocking then yes.....sweet. MJO is trying to move back into a 5/6 amplitude phase. That would be an exclamation point.

Their quite busy tracking two and possibly three long range threats and talking PDIII in the the MA thread haven'y you gotten the memo?

 

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