The Iceman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 11 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM shifted about 150 miles or so to the SE with the Monday coastal so put a fork in that one. The Tuesday night fropa wave thing looks less and less threatening every run with bl warmth delaying any potential changeover. Cold for a day Thursday then progressive pattern takes over with a seasonably mild run the following week. That should take us thru the 2nd week of Feb with little light at the end of this tunnel. Pitchers and catchers will be reporting very soon....we are starting to run out of time. Once the shift to a breakdown of the PAC occurred it ended our year. I know you said you're not saying winter's over but I am. Barring the pattern severely fixing itself over the final 2 weeks of February, stick a fork in this winter. We just aren't going to see a sustained blocking and cold this winter. They honestly should discontinue the weeklies. Terrible terrible guidance, anyone that uses them is going to be wrong 99% of the time. I'm ready for severe season and if we keep this same pattern, it could be a real doozy of a severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just had a brief snow shower roll through about an hour ago and coat the deck, but I blinked and it was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Euro with either the coup or another Ucy head fake. Has 4-7" up here Tuesday. Of course I will be away in S NJ si lock it up and bank on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro with either the coup or another Ucy head fake. Has 4-7" up here Tuesday. Of course I will be away in S NJ si lock it up and bank on it. Starting to look like the ole Wxsim.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro with either the coup or another Ucy head fake. Has 4-7" up here Tuesday. Of course I will be away in S NJ si lock it up and bank on it. I will be in east central Jersey driving the screw train Ralphie *HONK HONK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Does anybody actually honestly believe the 12z euro? Considering it radically flips every 12 hours. road trip to Qtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, RedSky said: I will be in east central Jersey driving the screw train Ralphie *HONK HONK Beep beep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: Does anybody actually honestly believe the 12z euro? Considering it radically flips every 12 hours. road trip to Qtown Euro has been very wonky in shorter range this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Expectations tempered at this time, Ill be interested tomorrow better yet when and if it actually happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sibbley Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I'm with you penndotguy, if we see snow great, if we don't oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Up here in the LV, I feel pretty confident that we will be getting 4-8+ inches of snow because of the high ratios. The snow is not what concerns me though it is the first time in one hell of a long time ( decades) that blowing and drifting will actually be a factor in driving, especially on the rural roads. IMHO, this makes a better winter than waiting for 2-4 inches of the constant slop or even the 8 inches we had in November. It will truly feel like winter for the first time in years on Thursday and it will go below zero Wed night with the snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 So looks like a general 2-4 out here in the far NW burbs and Warning snow 6+ in the Southern Poconos and NW Jersey, asoc now anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 0z GFS 1" to 7" Bucks County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I hate Miller Bs . Always get burned. But I like 6-10 LV N&W . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Mt Holly still going with 2-4 for Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Mt Holly still going with 2-4 for Berks. Yeah and nothing but a HWO lol... more talk about snow squalls Wednesday... maybe I’m missing something . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, anthonyweather said: I hate Miller Bs . Always get burned. But I like 6-10 LV N&W . This isnt a Miller b this is anafront snow behind an arctic fropa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Hoping to see a few flakes down here in Wildwood otherwise maybe a slushy inch back home in Warminster before the glacier. If the NAM is right maybe it turns to snow sooner. All other guidance now has the front racing thru and even hints of convection as it rips on by. Could be a burst of heavier rain turning to a brief period of white rain here as the front passes. These setups are tricky and rarely work out but fingers crossed. As has been the theme with every event this year it seems, far N and W will fare much better maybe several inches well N and W and especially elevated. That's you Paul Chesco....2-4" there maybe a 5" lolli. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Mesos now showing a sneaky batch of light WAA snows prior to the front which is rebounding to rain then maybe a brief period of snow behind the front. Ironically we re seeing a shift from all accums occurring anafront to accums now with the WAA stuff and less anafront. Still minor stuff unless far N and W. RGEM and wrf family still really dont want much if any parts of this in extreme SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This isnt a Miller b this is anafront snow behind an arctic fropa. Is this setup similar to the November storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Is this setup similar to the November storm? Not sure exactly how Nov evolved off of straight memory dont have time to look now. But this one is a reflection of the TPV dipping into the midwest and not really a phasing scenario being aided by a blocking HP. A few days ago it looked like a phase and redeveloping storm as the PV dove towards hatteras and became elongated transferring energy but that idea faded fast. Suppose maybe a hybrid Miller b at best but definitely not a textbook case and that's being generous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 hours ago, anthonyweather said: Yeah and nothing but a HWO lol... more talk about snow squalls Wednesday... maybe I’m missing something . 2-4 isn’t watch criteria. They will lift a WWA later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I don't see more than a coating-inch down for the 95 corridor. I think the severe chances are better than the snow chances... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I know most are concerned with this next 'event' tomorrow into early Wednesday then the cold snap Thursday but wanted to break the bad news.....MJO progs and new weeklies hot off the presses have basically put the nail in the coffin for the remainder of winter at least thru mid March. At least there is some solace in the fact a few of us saw the signals a while back earlier in the season and kept expectations firmly in check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know most are concerned with this next 'event' tomorrow into early Wednesday then the cold snap Thursday but wanted to break the bad news.....MJO progs and new weeklies hot off the presses have basically put the nail in the coffin for the remainder of winter at least thru mid March. At least there is some solace in the fact a few of us saw the signals a while back earlier in the season and kept expectations firmly in check. Wouldn’t that be funny if it’s wrong and we get into a decent pattern instead. I doubt it quite frankly if it’s correct and winter is truely over, let it be then and with any luck March will transition into Spring smoothly and we can all put this winter in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Saw daffodil bulbs already popping out of the soil yesterday. Incredibly early this year and tbh it hasnt even been mega warm either. I guess the lack of sustained deep freeze episodes is the main culprit. In any event they r in for a rude awakening Wed PM-Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know most are concerned with this next 'event' tomorrow into early Wednesday then the cold snap Thursday but wanted to break the bad news.....MJO progs and new weeklies hot off the presses have basically put the nail in the coffin for the remainder of winter at least thru mid March. At least there is some solace in the fact a few of us saw the signals a while back earlier in the season and kept expectations firmly in check. I offer a glimmer of hope, it's almost been whatever the weeklies show it's the opposite therefore maybe now we can get some snow in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Saw daffodil bulbs already popping out of the soil yesterday. Incredibly early this year and tbh it hasnt even been mega warm either. I guess the lack of sustained deep freeze episodes is the main culprit. In any event they r in for a rude awakening Wed PM-Friday My champion viburnum is starting to push out to. I was like what gives, it hasn't been that warm, my guess is soil temperatures are high from all of this rain. I hope none of my plants get damaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: I offer a glimmer of hope, it's almost been whatever the weeklies show it's the opposite therefore maybe now we can get some snow in February. nah this is when the weeklies nail the pattern and everyone begins to worship them again next winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 WWA posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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