penndotguy Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Yeah wish it was only 3 days out instead of 7, here we go again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 GFS beat out both the Euro and Ukie on the last system. I'd be curious to know how often that happens (my guess is: not very). It was relatively accurate even six days out. Didn't waiver much, if at all. Long range: I'm not sophisticated enough in this hobby to know all the details, but to me it appears one of the biggest issues is the MJO, which is more or less doing laps in the warm phases. Not that it's warm, mind you, but I would think these phases deter a -NAO establishing itself. Basically, a -NAO wants the warmer air over Greenland, while these MJO phases want the air over the CONUS. In other words, a +NAO and these MJO phases sync up. Again, pure speculation on my part because I don't know the extent of their interaction with one another. Perhaps it's the other way around. I will say, the one positive appears to be the AO dropping off. Obviously, long-range determination hasn't been reliable this season, so that could end up either direction, but a -AO can definitely work in our favor. As long as the MJO isn't super amped, I'm not overly worried about it. The NAO just seems like it doesn't want to go negative and stay there lately, say within the last number of years. Constantly transient. I don't know why that is. Getting excited about anything long-range this winter has been dangerous. As long as the moisture conveyor remains active, I think there will be chances, everything else just needs to align at once. We've certainly been close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 The worry over the lack of a -NAO doesn't make sense to me. The Mid-Atlantic region typically needs a -NAO for a good snowstorm. We don't. All we need is a nice PNA and EPO which the 28th time period is advertising. Now the lack of an -NAO makes it easier for either a suppressed system or a amped system to occur, but would you rather have a broken down western ridge with mild Pacific air flooding the CONUS? The 28th time frame is a tricky, risky, and almost thread-the-needle type event. The orientation of the western ridge argues for a coastal hugger but the TPV orientation argues for a miss out to sea. But I'll take my chances. We've already struck out 4 or more times this winter. Might as well swing for the fences and hope for a home run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 Current temp is down to 8 here. Extremely cold morning out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 Current temp now down to 6 here. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sibbley Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Currently partly cloudy and temp is 8 with the full moon still out. I did get to see the "super blood wolf moon" (full eclipse) overnight when the temp was a balmy 15 here. It was a bit more cloudy at that time but there were more than enough breaks in the clouds to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 6F here....wonder how much lower we could have gone with more ideal radiational cooling conditions ie no wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 The temp has now dropped to 4 here. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 6F here currently, also the overnight low. Brrr! The wind was sure busy overnight, kept the boiler busy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 The 8 ended up being my lowest for today. The -7 lowest dp (so far) has been a killer to the humidity indoors (even with humidifiers going). Currently 9, mostly sunny, and breezy as heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 It's so cold but we had 10 days of this last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 18 hours ago, Newman said: The worry over the lack of a -NAO doesn't make sense to me. The Mid-Atlantic region typically needs a -NAO for a good snowstorm. We don't. All we need is a nice PNA and EPO which the 28th time period is advertising. Now the lack of an -NAO makes it easier for either a suppressed system or a amped system to occur, but would you rather have a broken down western ridge with mild Pacific air flooding the CONUS? The 28th time frame is a tricky, risky, and almost thread-the-needle type event. The orientation of the western ridge argues for a coastal hugger but the TPV orientation argues for a miss out to sea. But I'll take my chances. We've already struck out 4 or more times this winter. Might as well swing for the fences and hope for a home run. I respectfully disagree good sir . We need a slight neg nao here to slow the pattern down otherwise we are relying on perfect timing. We've scored in positive naos though due to the reasons you stated above. The AO tanking would be big because then at the very least we should see a few clippers and a supply of cold to work with so we can actually have true thump events even if it changes over. I think the 29th favors a coastal hugger or slight inland runner with a change over likely for 95 at this time. We'd do decent before us does though unlike this weekend because we'll have cold air to work with in place If we can get the nao slightly negative though we'd be in business to suppress it a bit se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 12z GFS is a frontal passage and a disgusting run all around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 hours ago, RedSky said: 12z GFS is a frontal passage and a disgusting run all around GFS verification scores are in the toilet. Ignore that family of guidance for a bit. Euro and ukie leading the way. Hug the EPS etc for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 Current temp is 13 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 The NAM is very marginal for interior icing Wednesday. When precip arrives, temperatures for the interior are right around 30-31 degrees so it will start as ice. But just 3 hours later temperatures have risen into the 33-35 degree range. However, that is just the 2m temperatures. The roads may indeed still be below freezing with this arctic air mass we have in place. So even if the model is showing rain, it may still be freezing on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Gotta love the ECM day 8 storm out to the fishes and it's too warm anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 CFS weeklies are frigid through the run lol let's see how cold it can be with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 FV3 would save winter if this verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 ^ 5" ain't saving my winter I would have never believed this part of Jersey has a worst winter climate than DC, every single event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: ^ 5" ain't saving my winter I would have never believed this part of Jersey has a worst winter climate than DC, every single event Bro you live next to an ocean in the mid latitudes. What do you expect? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Looking like next weeks storm is all or nothing. PAC breaks down shortly after and we are in for some more tough times... Maybe march will rock again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 UGLY, we need at least a dip into negative for favorable results on next weeks storm. No sign of a lasting -NAO though and not a good sign it stays positive the next 15 days on the ensembles. Combined with the PNA looking to head negative, very very pessimistic this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 18z NAM for tomorrow's interior icing. Likely patchy freezing drizzle to start for many places. Won't be widespread icing but even a light glaze is bad for the roads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 There's not going to be any real snow in the next 14 days. I won't even entertain some fantasy runs, they won't verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Earlier forecast for tonight was a low of 28F with little drop off from a high of 30F. Latest update has a low of 17F! That is probably the biggest forecast adjustment for a low I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, hurricane1091 said: There's not going to be any real snow in the next 14 days. I won't even entertain some fantasy runs, they won't verify. If you're incorrect you will be required to wear a winter coat for a week in July, ok? Also, define "real snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Flood Watch in effect here from late tonight thru tomorrow afternoon for 1-2" of rain w/locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Looking more and more like next weeks storm is following the trend so far this season big rain maker then cold. But hey Interesting times are ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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