zenmsav6810 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Congrats. We're probably in the same age range and to piss away time (and stress...believe it or not) for nothing is stupid. Hell, if I was retired and had a boat-load of money...it would be a cool but a tad stressful hobby but still cool. Unfortunately I'm not rich... If you like weather, you have to get yourself more involved w/T-Storms during the Spring/Summer rather than hibernate. They are quite fun. There's no 7-10 day outlook (for the most part) ...just potential. Sitting on the back deck (enjoying a cold one) hearing that distant rumble of thunder moving in, checking radar and seeing a bunch of "red" is pretty cool. No question winter/snow rules but there are other avenues... T-storms were fun until one of them bit me on the toe. May 22nd, 2015... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Tracking the abominable winter of 2019 continues to achieve new heights of atrocity. Today's ECM has two cutters in the long range the second of which drops the north pole in with below zero temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 We're gonna have to buy Ralph a new box of nails. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, JTA66 said: We're gonna have to buy Ralph a new box of nails. get him screws instead... at least you can kinda go backwards then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: get him screws instead... at least you can kinda go backwards then. And a nice battery powered screw gun, it's faster! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This is almost biblical cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I can see it now southern slider threat to Florida 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, RedSky said: I can see it now southern slider threat to Florida Yup, nailed it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, JTA66 said: We're gonna have to buy Ralph a new box of nails. Those nails are firmly in place. I'm talking for imby and irt a SECS which it doesnt meet that criteria this is just a slop nuisance event. A 1-3" "thump" to sleet/fzra to rain ending maybe as a period of snow Sunday with little to no additional accums. That's my story for Warminster and I'm sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On another site a NWS forecaster is wondering why the NWS have not extended the WSW down into Chester County....assuming the point and click is correct that we have 2" to 5" of snow and then 0.3" of ice with temps never going above freezing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I can see it now southern slider threat to Florida This was once fun. I had a bad feeling after the nov dump it would be a long frustrating winter. Then again we are not in Boston.....Guess ice skating might be in order.....hockey on the lake.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 hours ago, RedSky said: This is almost biblical cold GFS has a cutter on the same date the euro is showing the article circle over eastern north america lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 hours ago, RedSky said: GFS has a cutter on the same date the euro is showing the article circle over eastern north america lol Euro idea and many others now backed off the pv dip significantly. Of bigger concern the GEPS now show my worst fear with the WAR continuing to sustain and never really progressing into the nao region. It essentially shows the same general N Atl theme we've seen off and on since Sept with the WAR often establishing itself and then just rolling over. Until that changes my area and SE are going to continue to see rainy solutions with these bigger systems while 'far' N W will cash in with sleet zone sandwiched between. If u see the pattern tendency we are doing better down here with flatter and more minor events this year....and by better' I mean c-2 or 3 inch types that are all snow. Nov was a fluke imo and an Arcbambault where we wer actually deep neg NAO flipping to positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Going to need February to spiral us into a new dimension of snow just to make up for this horrible winter so far. Eliminating the November storm gets me to a whopping 1.25" on the season. I do believe February will produce based on some other met forecasts. I'm too tired of this winter to draw my own conclusions at this point so I'm simply riding along with other forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I think winter is done and we're in for cold dry then warm up wet repeat for the rest of winter. Maybe we ll get lucky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: I think winter is done and we're in for cold dry then warm up wet repeat for the rest of winter. Maybe we ll get lucky... More than likely....pattern tendencies cannot be denied. Starting to hear some of the pro mets and pattern-change activists raising the white flags sporadically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Winter of yore incoming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 ^ It's starting to hone in on reality the 40" for central Jersey three weeks ago is down to 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The discussion after seeing the 12z complete debacle should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Winter of yore incoming.... Well thats like 10-15 maybe for philly. And that between now an early March. I would exactly call that winter of yore. If thats all we get this winter will barely reach normal snowfal for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Well thats like 10-15 maybe for philly. And that between now an early March. I would exactly call that winter of yore. If thats all we get this winter will barely reach normal snowfal for winter True but it is only the mean...I still like our chances at a well above normal year it will only take 2 big storms and we could be there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Stormman96 said: Well thats like 10-15 maybe for philly. And that between now an early March. I would exactly call that winter of yore. If thats all we get this winter will barely reach normal snowfal for winter I remember when that same exact forecast map had 55"+ for philly between Jan 17 and mid Feb so yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Didn't take long for the euro to par back the PV entrance late month, then again who wants a storm track limited to the deep south and useless 0F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This is workable but alas....a LR dream and an op run. Dr No is up to it's Lucy shtick. Last night drops the TPV hammer today gone. Now a Mauler tracking under us and exploding on the coast. Hmmm, I wonder if it will be there at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Guidance overnight continues with the idea the "epic pattern" will last 3-4 days before breaking down back to crap. Pac ends up breaking down and since we can't sustain a neg nao it goes back to pretty ugly. So we have a 3-4 day window of winter chances soooooo epic LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 58 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Guidance overnight continues with the idea the "epic pattern" will last 3-4 days before breaking down back to crap. Pac ends up breaking down and since we can't sustain a neg nao it goes back to pretty ugly. So we have a 3-4 day window of winter chances soooooo epic LOL Yep. And the weeklies are strengthening the WAR and not allowing it to keep feeding the NAO. So we went from 'epic' to a PAC puke redux and no NAO. I am not buying it yet even tho it does have some legs. The LR has been a crapshoot this year tbh so who knows. I will say this....if some of these new looks verify it is going to be not only unfavorable pattern but very likely an early end to winter tho we can debate whether it truly began or not. Hopefully that PV doesnt consolidate and head over to Siberia like we are starting to see hints of. Meh maybe an early finish to this dreadful season wouldnt be bad. In any event too much LR discussion from me as it has been unreliable. We do have some threats showing up over the next 10 days anyway so we can track those and remain hopeful with fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Don't worry guys March is going to rock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I guess the next thing to keep an eye on is the 28th? DTN (Weather Sentry) is showing a good snow, and cold to support it. Of course this will change 65 times.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Euro is a big hit for the 28th/29th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Wish it meant something since the euro has shown several big hits at that range this non winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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