Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Tibet said: What kind of time frame is this modeled to happen over? Shift that a little east and the Lehigh Valley will definitely be beating the 3 foot we got some years back I wouldn't think/worry about it because it won't happen...fantasy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 32 minutes ago, Newman said: Sorry Redsky. I would feel much worse if i lived in west Philly for that one, 20 miles west 40" lol it even screws Qtown 24" doesn't do it if there is 40" 15 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 We know the FV3 over amps everything it's like the old DGEX, i fear something like the new ECM more than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: OMG that was the 0z EMC i didn't even know it my bad! 12z went south Dohhhhhhhh Better that we are seeing things move E and/or South tbh. I would rather have it se and need to come west or even graze us se as opposed to a cutter but that's just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: We know the FV3 over amps everything it's like the old DGEX, i fear something like the new ECM more than anything I wouldnt worry nor would I even get overly invested in this being 7 days+ out. Raising an eyebrow of interest for sure tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Better that we are seeing things move E and/or South tbh. I would rather have it se and need to come west or even graze us se as opposed to a cutter but that's just me Have you been following winter of 2019? everything S&E to this point and that is without the -NAO on it's way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Nary a mention of the fvc3po with temps well below zero morning of MLK day? Even the gfs is in the low single digits. The fv3 loop of 2m temps is just ridiculous. Near the end of the run the entire Northeast part of the US is below zero. I thought I saw a high of 4 degrees the one day. We know that likely wont verify but regardless there is some anomalous well BN cold on the way. If u havent winterized yet u r just about out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 After the storm system next weekend, looks like the pattern gets overwhelmed with cold in the Northeast for the foreseeable future. Problem with that is most guidance looks dry as well tho who knows m how individual shortwaves will perform after next week. Wouldnt be surprised at all tho to see us go thru an extended period of cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Keeping an eye on Friday....looks like a sneaky little event trying to move thru. FV3 for the larger event over the weekend is one of the biggest impact ice/sleet storms I ever remember seeing modeled for i95. Philly verbatim sees 3-3.5" LE heavy ice and sleet followed by a burst of heavy snow. Then frigid cold. Would make 1994 look like child's play. Glaciers for weeks and no power up and down i95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Hmmm, eps looks like a big ice/sleet event for parts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Light snow falling here. A dusting to a coating on all surfaces. Temp 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I'll have one order of the ozone layer please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Newman said: I'll have one order of the ozone layer please. Hmm....invest in a snowmaking machine or heating oil futures, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Newman said: I'll have one order of the ozone layer please. Scary part is there is ens support for this....maybe not to this extreme but the signal is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 GFS 10 day snow forecast zero.zero imby lol not alone either near half the EPS members paint a snow hole encompassing central NJ. Also Boston not so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 GEM agrees with an ugly cutter in Ohio next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Euro is terrible for S&E I95 and great for N&W next weekend. An optimist would say at least there's something on a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 ^ 2" freezing rain accumulated ice for the I95 corridor to take down the grid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: ^ 2" freezing rain accumulated ice for the I95 corridor to take down the grid Freezing rain is the absolute worst. Went 5 days last winter without power. Really don't want a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 EPS overall look is colder. Probably more of a sleet/ice/snow....even some plain rain signature than all snow. Dont think it's all rain either. Individual eps members are mixed. There are some HECS, some MECS, smattering of SECS.....some wild ice and sleet storms, some far NW crushers, some shutouts....everything but the kitchen sink. That sick mass of below zero to the N is what has me concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 The differences between the Euro and other guidance is the timing of the shortwave. The Euro delays the shortwave which allows for the TPV induced press to fully come through the area. The GFS is earlier which allows for it to blast through before any real cold air can funnel in. If I were to bet, I would think the TPV press would be undermodeled at this distance, but you don't know. Either way, the cold air in the wake of the storm is absolutely frigid. If a major snow and ice storm occurred like the Euro depicted, thousands would be without power with no heat, etc. That would be more damaging than the storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 18z GFS is a 1'+ MECS most of PA including Philly....little ice or sleet this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS is a 1'+ MECS most of PA including Philly....little ice or sleet this run. We need something big down 28 - 0 about to start the second half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 GFS and Euro agree for the most part. Big week of tracking boys. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 ^ 2" freezing rain accumulated ice for the I95 corridor to take down the grid Would love to see that!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Would love to see that! . I'll pass thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'll pass thanks You gotta admit it's nice to look at but a PITA as far as driving,electricity (lack of) and down trees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: You gotta admit it's nice to look at but a PITA as far as driving,electricity (lack of) and down trees... If that run verified verbatim thru 384hrs unless you have a generator you would be screwed as a homeowner. You are talking 3"+ ice so assume massive loss of power. Doesn't get above freezing for a while so getting crews out in the ice to fix power next to impossible. Then temps 15 below zero or less? Pipes in a house with those temps and no power are toast. Then who knows how much longer the freeze would continue based on that run but looks relentless. So yeah I'll pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If that run verified verbatim thru 384hrs unless you have a generator you would be screwed as a homeowner. You are talking 3"+ ice so assume massive loss of power. Doesn't get above freezing for a while so getting crews out in the ice to fix power next to possible. Then temps 15 below zero or less? Pipes in a house with those temps and no power are toast. Then who knows how much longer the freeze would continue based on that run but looks relentless. So yeah I'll pass. I'll pass for lots of reasons...a quarter inch or less looks nice on the trees the next morning, but beyond that I'd like mine as snow or even sleet please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Lots of tracking and opportunities coming over the next 14 days. Just to be a devil's advocate the 6z fv3 is a good example of how i95 could essentially fail during this good pattern. Lots of sleet and rain with minimal snow other than light stuff or wraparound variety. Likely is wrong but worth noting that these epic looking patterns dont always produce for the big cities but can favor NW areas quite a bit. Again likely wrong but I am mentioning this to keep expectations in check. Not everything that looks good on paper plays out exactly as hoped. With that said I am still hopeful and cautiously optimistic moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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