The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We rarely get sustained neg NAO patterns. Most of our snows in the last 8-10 years have been during NAO fluxes. Like I said....give me the other teleconnections and I will take my chances with the nao index teetering back and fro.....dont need an epic nao look that is probably too much of a good thing. What do you mean, seems like every spring since 2010 we've had a sustained neg nao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, The Iceman said: What do you mean, seems like every spring since 2010 we've had a sustained neg nao Ha! True that. I mainly meant during peak winter climo however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 30 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I think saturday night has the potential to overperform. The snow maps are based at 10:1 and I would be very surprised if we only saw 10:1 ratios. JB was saying something about 30:1 ratios but even 15:1 would make this a solid advisory event for SE PA. Extreme SNJ may get a warning event out of this.. My interest level is slightly raised. The ticks N continue. And I agree with an advisory level event. Check out the changes on the NAM vs 6z: Eta: look back at the slp in the Miss River valley not the waa stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: My interest lever is slightly raised. The ticks N continue. And I agree with an advisory level event. Check out the changes on the NAM vs 6z: As we get closer, you can see the intensity of the WAA snows increasing which is normal. I expect the ticks N to continue up to the event which is very common with WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'm wondering if that UL energy continues to show up more consolidated and holds together enough to give some additional snow as it passes by. It is also farther N. Snow totals in the midwest under that are approaching 2 feet in spots. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: As we get closer, you can see the intensity of the WAA snows increasing which is normal. I expect the ticks N to continue up to the event which is very common with WAA. The waa will do the usual waa thing and over perform slightly. I'm more interested in the trends with that ULL feature in the midwest. If it comes east and maintains rather than get squashed S and sheared some areas may get a surprise from the second doink. Eta: probably more of a DC impact than us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 If we didnt see most other guidance trending the same I would say it's just the NAM being the NAM but yeah: ETA: hanging back and farther N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 14 hours ago, Birds~69 said: How can you have a 15hr event w/some mod snow and only end up with 1.5 - 2"??? Easy moderate snow for only 1 or 2 hours and light snow the rest of the time - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3k NAM is soooo close to i95 with the banding from the coastal. Nice sw-ne orientation now with everything. Snj does well this run. Hopefully the trends continue....there are some nice adjustments still happening past 40 hours on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 JB still thinks the snow stays together better right to the coast and north a bit. He thinks 3" to 6" from MDT to ACY with 4" to 8" south of there through DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM looks even better than the NAM through 48 hours.. still snowing and already 1-3"+ with ratios through 48 hours. interesting developments at 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM gets moisture from the coastal unto the nw burbs of philly even this run. Is the plot thickening or is Lucy warming up with the football? I smell an overperformer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 GGEM came N and W with the coastal low. If I lived S and E of Philly into S NJ I would start paying close attention. Not sure how much more adjustments we can see to help the NW folks and if it will be enough to get us in the coastal banding up here or not. Still c-2" up here with 3" lollis seems reasonable for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 On the GGEM it is interesting the hp ticked a notch stronger and farther s a hair while the entire storm system nudged north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 GFS hangs the surface low back just off hatteras as it waits for ul energy to catch up. Not much change up this way however. It looks like the odd one out still irt the wishy washy waa depiction then diving ull in like other guidance which has it farther N and moving due E or even slightly amplifying raising heights along coast. We toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS hangs the surface low back just off hatteras as it waits for ul energy to catch up. Not much change up this way however. It looks like the odd one out still irt the wishy washy waa depiction then diving ull in like other guidance which has it farther N and moving due E or even slightly amplifying raising heights along coast. We toss? Not sure. The GFS is an enigma. I'll never forget that triple low off NYC where we threw out GFS run after GFS run and it turned out to be right and took the storm out to sea. Centralized pressure moving closer = more dynamic setup. More dynamic = More like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS hangs the surface low back just off hatteras as it waits for ul energy to catch up. Not much change up this way however. It looks like the odd one out still irt the wishy washy waa depiction then diving ull in like other guidance which has it farther N and moving due E or even slightly amplifying raising heights along coast. We toss? Weenie handbook rule #1: Toss the model that gives the least amount of snow! Seriously, just whiten my lawn tomorrow and I'll be happy. Then we can start obsessing over next weekend's storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Weenie handbook rule #1: Toss the model that gives the least amount of snow! Seriously, just whiten my lawn tomorrow and I'll be happy. Then we can start obsessing over next weekend's storm. Agreed! First time in almost 2 months for most of us for having some snow on the door step. I like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 22 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Agreed! First time in almost 2 months for most of us for having some snow on the door step. I like it. Difference between you and the rest of us is you have the added pressure/stress to get your pile started so accumulation (inches) is a must! Us normal snow weenies will take just a lawn coating to lower our blood pressure. A Birds win over the Saints will do the same... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Difference between you and the rest of us is you have the added pressure/stress to get your pile started so accumulation (inches) is a must! Us normal snow weenies will take just a lawn coating to lower our blood pressure. A Birds win over the Saints will do the same... Both would be fine with me :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Been following the MA thread and the joy as every 6 hours totals get bumped up yet the "wall" seems to run through Philly north of it the only increases have been in hundreths of an inch. This is the worst confluence problem since 2010, only that in 2010 Monmouth still got pummeled lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 ^^^ Actually it gets even better they just celebrated another .10" increase and we decreased this time by around .02" lol Must be one hell of strong jet streak like the ones they have on Saturn to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 FWIW the FVGFS came way north as well at 12z. like the ggem it also does the double doink even up to lv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 EURO also ticked north. there is still time friends... cmon were the philly sub, we don't fold until the bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: EURO also ticked north. there is still time friends... cmon were the philly sub, we don't fold until the bitter end. From 6z it ticked south north of the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: From 6z it ticked south north of the border precip wise yes, but the coastal itself ticked north. We're very close to getting into the bulk of that. The euro took away our WAA snows this run, that's the difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Holy batman look at the gradient from AC north on the drunk Canadian lol 2010 flashbacks in 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 we really have until 12z tomorrow for final adjustments...still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Looking better and better. The fact that it will be below 30 in some parts will help accumulate, shouldnt be losing a lot of flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Both would be fine with me :-) So true...that damn Nov snow seems like last winter, no joke. Just like to see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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