RedSky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 ECM is .5" snow for Bucks and Monmouth equally in the battle for the fraction of an inch storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Euro Kuchera get the 2" line up to Central Chester County PA.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Hey the Ukie beefed up it's qpf to .1-.2.0" for our mid counties, up from .01" lol Feels like a fake reality we get a hundred inches of rain and now straining to squeeze out a couple of tenths with the first storm chance since mid November. Unreal My worst possible nightmare from three days ago of two southern sliders sandwiched between a crapload of cutters is going to happen pretty much the 12z gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: JB holding to the end - as always his North bias is a weakness which I think he knows he has but can't help it As far as the storm, no changes, as always I wait for it to get into the plains to change ideas as I see too many of these go all over the place and if I am to bust, would rather just bust once. But the explanation on this a couple of days ago with the northern snow coming out still looks good to me, That tends to hold together with 20 to 30 to 1 ratio near -8C While its going to be a nice storm from St Louis to the Delmarva ( I think) the real value of it to me is it is a sign of the times.. and that time is for it get cold and stay cold with repetitive snow threats evolving along with stronger cold shots LR guidance not looking great after the 3 threats incoming next 10 days or so. Pattern breaks down and we are right where we were. If we don't score in this brief period, we could be skunked through mid February possibly the rest of winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, The Iceman said: LR guidance not looking great after the 3 threats incoming next 10 days or so. Pattern breaks down and we are right where we were. If we don't score in this brief period, we could be skunked through mid February possibly the rest of winter... I have given up new weeklies that bad? If so i welcome it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 36 minutes ago, The Iceman said: LR guidance not looking great after the 3 threats incoming next 10 days or so. Pattern breaks down and we are right where we were. If we don't score in this brief period, we could be skunked through mid February possibly the rest of winter... Didnt you just post yeaterday that their were a lot of great signals showing up in the long range??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Sure is a shame to piss away this incoming cold air for nothing or very little.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Latest Wxsim program continues to show a light snow event for the NW Chester County PA area of East Nantmeal Township. Currently it looks like light snow arrives by 6pm on Sat eve. with moderate snow by midnight with it all over by 9am Sunday morning with between 1.5" to 2.0" of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Yeah, we know - no need to rub it in, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 hours ago, The Iceman said: LR guidance not looking great after the 3 threats incoming next 10 days or so. Pattern breaks down and we are right where we were. If we don't score in this brief period, we could be skunked through mid February possibly the rest of winter... I'm not buying it (lol ). Could happen that way, but I'm working off a smoothed out curve as far as guidance goes. Overall colder, with occasional brief warmups, and we'll see about the storm tracks. Next weekend (the storm after the storm) could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Latest Wxsim program continues to show a light snow event for the NW Chester County PA area of East Nantmeal Township. Currently it looks like light snow arrives by 6pm on Sat eve. with moderate snow by midnight with it all over by 9am Sunday morning with between 1.5" to 2.0" of snow How can you have a 15hr event w/some mod snow and only end up with 1.5 - 2"??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 New Euro weeklies are out and are solid teleconnection pattern thru the end of February. They have not backed off whatsoever and in fact look the best that I have seen in a very long time. Extreme neg NAO, neg AO, pos PNA, pos EPO, extremely active stj, displace PV wobbling around near Hudson Bay. At the surface BN to well BN temp regime across much of the Eastern US. Pattern is about as loaded as you can get. Not sure how much if any fluctuation or modification we get over the next 4 weeks at the very least. As far as the Jan 18-22 threat I love the looks of the ens with good hp along and just S of Canadian border with LP mean in the lower Tenn Valley then off the Carolina Coast. Fasten your seat belts we are in for a wild ride the 2nd half of winter! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 hours ago, The Iceman said: LR guidance not looking great after the 3 threats incoming next 10 days or so. Pattern breaks down and we are right where we were. If we don't score in this brief period, we could be skunked through mid February possibly the rest of winter... Most of the time we tend to agree but gotta disagree with you here. After a very brief reload in the PAC and up top next week the crap looks like it is going to hit the fan. Aside from the GFS family of models I dont think there is a single piece of modeling suggesting the good pattern breaks down. In fact it only looks to improve and there are textbook KU looks showing up more than once over the next 4-6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Saturday looks pretty well cooked, icon looks way sheared out hardly a snow storm for anyone including Mid-Atlantic, CMC way south... just a total folly across the board. Probably worse than 18z. Euro yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: Saturday looks pretty well cooked, icon looks way sheared out hardly a snow storm for anyone including Mid-Atlantic, CMC way south... just a total folly across the board. Probably worse than 18z. Euro yet to come. Double doink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: New Euro weeklies are out and are solid teleconnection pattern thru the end of February. They have not backed off whatsoever and in fact look the best that I have seen in a very long time. Extreme neg NAO, neg AO, pos PNA, pos EPO, extremely active stj, displace PV wobbling around near Hudson Bay. At the surface BN to well BN temp regime across much of the Eastern US. Pattern is about as loaded as you can get. Not sure how much if any fluctuation or modification we get over the next 4 weeks at the very least. As far as the Jan 18-22 threat I love the looks of the ens with good hp along and just S of Canadian border with LP mean in the lower Tenn Valley then off the Carolina Coast. Fasten your seat belts we are in for a wild ride the 2nd half of winter! Winter of Yore Virginia, extreme -NAO could hurt us Make that a -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Double doink I think were up to quadruple doink at this point! .... Lucy lines up for the kick but the Icon decided to ice the kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM ensembles for a double doink save? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 hours ago, RedSky said: Winter of Yore Virginia, extreme -NAO could hurt us Make that a -EPO Ty...good catch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6z Nam gives some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Screw it, I'll wing it. 1" - 2"...more S, less N. These model runs are driving me nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Screw it, I'll wing it. 1" - 2"...more S, less N. These model runs are driving me nuts. Basically thinking the same. There have been ticks N on guidance but the system isnt the usual juiced up type of stj system we've seen the past 6 months....of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Most of the time we tend to agree but gotta disagree with you here. After a very brief reload in the PAC and up top next week the crap looks like it is going to hit the fan. Aside from the GFS family of models I dont think there is a single piece of modeling suggesting the good pattern breaks down. In fact it only looks to improve and there are textbook KU looks showing up more than once over the next 4-6 weeks. until this looks better, i'm skeptical of any lasting pattern change.. Feels like we've been seeing the tank to negative forever now. Then once it hits negative it is progressive and bounces right back to positive. Weeklies are promising, though they have been poor this year. MJO isn't as potent luckily but still looks to be moving into an unfavorable phase and by passing 1 and 2. I guess what I'm trying to say is I don't really trust anything past day 15 rn and the GFS has been pretty good at sniffing out pattern changes. I hope you are correct though. Just seems like every time we get a great pattern this year it's in place for a week then we get a hard reset. I hope that progressive pattern changes but I am skeptical at this point until we see a lasting neg nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I think saturday night has the potential to overperform. The snow maps are based at 10:1 and I would be very surprised if we only saw 10:1 ratios. JB was saying something about 30:1 ratios but even 15:1 would make this a solid advisory event for SE PA. Extreme SNJ may get a warning event out of this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 17 hours ago, Stormman96 said: Didnt you just post yeaterday that their were a lot of great signals showing up in the long range??? Yeah in the the day 7 to day 13 then the pattern breaks down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 34 minutes ago, The Iceman said: until this looks better, i'm skeptical of any lasting pattern change.. Feels like we've been seeing the tank to negative forever now. Then once it hits negative it is progressive and bounces right back to positive. Weeklies are promising, though they have been poor this year. MJO isn't as potent luckily but still looks to be moving into an unfavorable phase and by passing 1 and 2. I guess what I'm trying to say is I don't really trust anything past day 15 rn and the GFS has been pretty good at sniffing out pattern changes. I hope you are correct though. Just seems like every time we get a great pattern this year it's in place for a week then we get a hard reset. I hope that progressive pattern changes but I am skeptical at this point until we see a lasting neg nao. On 1/9/2019 at 11:40 AM, The Iceman said: this is what we want to see: As long as we have cold in place, we will do well in this pattern. I don't see the moisture train shutting off. Quoted your post from the other day highlighting the AO tanking. I think this is going to be more of the driver irt us getting snowfall vs the nao. I actually dont want to see the nao as negative as the eps weeklies are depicting tbh. Give me a solid PAC and a neg AO which is where we look to be headed and I will take my chances with the nao flexing and moderating every few days. If anything the quasi-transient neg NAO look may actually be more of a benefit this season. Eta: I am not seeing the pattern breakdown you are referencing...maybe a final reload before teleconnections lock in thru the mid/end of Feb but not a breakdown. I see what u r saying about the LR ens and how everything has been unicorns and fairies at 15 days but if you go back to late Dec ens we are now where we were progged to be at that time. We look to finally be done chasing our tail as the SSWE effects are beginning to be felt and the SOI is settling toward a more stable and Nino favorable index level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Quoted your post from the other day highlighting the AO tanking. I think this is going to be more of the driver irt us getting snowfall vs the nao. I actually dont want to see the nao as negative as the eps weeklies are depicting tbh. Give me a solid PAC and a neg AO which is where we look to be headed and I will take my chances with the nao flexing and moderating every few days. If anything the quasi-transient neg NAO look may actually be more of a benefit this season. The AO means we'll have cold around, however without a slight neg nao in place, we're going to be relying on good timing. I want to see some consistent blocking showing up like in the weeklies, just not as severe. We also need EPO to go and stay negative which is showing up in LR. Actually 6z GFS shows exactly what I mean. We get a great system, with a pretty good look other than the NAO.. but with no blocking in place the system rides the coastline resulting in rain for 95. A -AO/-EPO/+PNA/+NAO pattern is much more favorable for the Lehigh Valley imo. It will be hard for 95 to get a massive event without a thread the needle situation... but we've been hella lucky since 2010 in worse patterns... More just playing devils advocate here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I am really liking the 19-21st period for a big event. Ensemble means last night were much better than the OP's. Almost no cutters and plenty of really really nice hits. This is the one to watch imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, The Iceman said: The AO means we'll have cold around, however without a slight neg nao in place, we're going to be relying on good timing. I want to see some consistent blocking showing up like in the weeklies, just not as severe. We also need EPO to go and stay negative which is showing up in LR. Actually 6z GFS shows exactly what I mean. We get a great system, with a pretty good look other than the NAO.. but with no blocking in place the system rides the coastline resulting in rain for 95. A -AO/-EPO/+PNA/+NAO pattern is much more favorable for the Lehigh Valley imo. It will be hard for 95 to get a massive event without a thread the needle situation... but we've been hella lucky since 2010 in worse patterns... More just playing devils advocate here. We rarely get sustained neg NAO patterns. Most of our snows in the last 8-10 years have been during NAO fluxes. Like I said....give me the other teleconnections and I will take my chances with the nao index teetering back and fro.....dont need an epic nao look that is probably too much of a good thing. We will sync them up at least once before winter is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now