The Iceman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Looks like we'll see several shots at clippers in the 13-18th time frame followed by another huge threat the 19-21st. This may actually finally be the one. Very good signals showing up on all of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 It's awesome how the GFS and GEM both carve out the exact confluence notch that screws Qtown and Monmouth equally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 this is what we want to see: As long as we have cold in place, we will do well in this pattern. I don't see the moisture train shutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 No sugar coating this but going the wrong way at 12z with a system now inside 96hrs in a season of snakebite is not where you want to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Anybody notice the next system around the 19th on the 0z euro and the 12z GFS is an inland runner , it's like filling the corpse with bullet holes at that point lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Word on the street is the 12z Ukie got squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 For the regions eternal optimists i know there are a few we still have the GEFS so the ECM doesn't have to be totally on an island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 To provide hope to snow weenies everywhere here is JB at WB's latest thoughts....He is correct about the false idol that is the GFS at 4 days out - happens all the time...not saying I agree with him - but if the Euro goes south at 12z then there should be concern The GFS is likely getting into its handoff to quick to the northern branch mode it likes to get into 4 days out, So we see it collapsing heights over the lakes and Ohio Valley at 84 hours.) or handing off to the northern branch) This looks to be an error to me, but perhaps this is the time it is right, But there are no changes in my thinking right now I think the Euro/NAM blend will be the best way to proceed going forward and there is no change in our ideas on the storm this weekend, I don't think this is a big deal for NYC ( 2-4) and think its 4-8 around DC for instance. Quite frankly this map shows what I think is coming, more or less, Euro 72 hour snow totals ending Monday morning There are some edge considerations but I dont expect a shift north to the experimental GFS at 06z But I dont think there is that much suppression either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 ye old EE rule FTW except now it's the EN rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Obligatory F DT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Newman said: Obligatory F DT That could almost be a T-Shirt saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Euro...further N it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 wide spread 3-4" with lollis up to 6" in elevation on the Euro. 72 hours out on the EURO and GFS are night/day. We'll know very soon which one is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I understand the gem and gfs lost in the forest but the ukie is really making this complicated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 it's too early still to know what ratio potential we have, but with 850's -6 - -9 for most of the area, have to imagine we'd do better than 10:1. Again there are other factors involved like snow growth but we shouldn't lose a flake even if it is light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 EPS mean backs the OP, several bigger hits thrown in there as well. GEFS is wetter than GFS too. I may be a weenie, but I think many of us will be pleasantly surprised by this storm. Or it will bust and we can cry all next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The over running snows will be cold with high ratios probably around 15 to 1. Area wide 2-4" is possible with that. But I just don't see how this corrects north enough for our area to get into the real good stuff. DT and Virginia will likely win again. I hope I'm wrong. Plenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Interesting the ECM ensembles look like the GFS and GEM ops but shifted 40 miles north. Its a razor thin line to disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 We need the bounce to fall inside the goal posts... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: We need the bounce to fall inside the goal posts... The double doink storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 34 minutes ago, RedSky said: Interesting the ECM ensembles look like the GFS and GEM ops but shifted 40 miles north. Its a razor thin line to disaster. it will be close but may have one more shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Wow just had a nice snow squall come through zero visibility for about 5 minutes ground turned white then it was gone. Nice to see heavy snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Some flakage going on from this batch moving through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 22 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Some flakage going on from this batch moving through... Just had a few flakes here - that's 3 days in a row with some frozen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Just had a few flakes here - that's 3 days in a row with some frozen! 3 days in a row...man, your pile must be huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Birds~69 said: 3 days in a row...man, your pile must be huge! Patience, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18z gefs increased the snow means yet again. Several solutions that show wsw level 4-8"+ snows especially in SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 hours ago, Birdbean said: The double doink storm? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: 18z gefs increased the snow means yet again. Several solutions that show wsw level 4-8"+ snows especially in SNJ SNJ is probably a lock especially for the second doink. Not sure the goalposts have been positioned just yet...another day. Remember this double doink keeps getting delayed and the bigger threat ie the second part is still very much in question. Should see some accus tho Saturday from the waa stuff across sothern pa at the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Victory is mine i saw all flakes and no rain today, the irony is i was in Qtown for it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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