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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

The next two weeks look bleak and uneventful, like you have to pay for the fast start in November

 

I was thinking the same thing, while it was a nice storm if I remember correctly a few years ago when we had snow on Halloween the winter that followed wasn’t so great. Is it a coincidence? Seems the later things get started around here the better maybe? 

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4 hours ago, penndotguy said:

I was thinking the same thing, while it was a nice storm if I remember correctly a few years ago when we had snow on Halloween the winter that followed wasn’t so great. Is it a coincidence? Seems the later things get started around here the better maybe? 

If we're thinking of the same thing I believe it was Oct. 30, 2011. My family just got back from Disney and came home to an inch or so at our house. And 2011-'12 was..well..let's not talk about it. I was (am) hoping November snows didn't count as an early season jinx. Although now that I said jinx I think I remember many future winters were offered up as sacrifices if the Birds won the Super Bowl...(worth it!)

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6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We almost always pay for those early starts. Certainly not looking like a winter of yore thus far.

Give it time Ralphie, peoples in parts of the southeast are going to be singing yore on Sunday. No way we were ever going to score twice this early million to one odds lol

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Give it time Ralphie, peoples in parts of the southeast are going to be singing yore on Sunday. No way we were ever going to score twice this early million to one odds lol

 

Models continue to squash and shred the lp and the swath of snow continues to shrink even for them. I'm not impressed with where we are at nor where we are headed thru at least calendar winter.

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Here are some of Isotherm's thoughts. Let's not bridge-jump too soon. Everything's going to plan:

 

Geopotential heights are likely to correct more positive over the PNA, NAO and southern AO domains as an ineluctable consequence of stratospheric alterations ongoing D10-12. By December 15th-16th, the geopotential structure alteration will have overspread most of North America and Greenland, as the stratospheric vortices are perturbed / displaced toward Eurasia. Robust w1 hit will impact the SPV via the felicitous tropospheric precursor pattern, and once the nascent blocking encompasses the NAO region, wave 2 will be enhanced again. This final follow-up w2 hit circa Dec 23-31 will be the primary opportunity to induce a technical SSW. I have thought that we'll come close, but near miss. Regardless, the tropospheric impacts will be quite significant. MJO should circulate should through p3, thereupon, rapidly losing coherency during passage in p4-5 by mid December. GWO should be back into/approaching phase 5 by about the solstice in my opinion. The momentum reversal processes are already beginning, as this negative/removal mini cycle will be efficiently overshadowed / dampened by the background, resuming +AAM state. +EAMT will increase in the coming week, with more rossby wave dispersion events and wly momentum injection. Classic walker cell forcing resumes again by the 18th, and we will see the retrogression of the GOAK trough into an Aleutian low position on or about December 20th/21st. As a consequence of which, temperatures neutralize/near normal by the 18th-19th, supportive of snow in the coastal Northeast as early as around the 18-20th, then cooler than normal air begins developing shortly following the EPO diminution via GOAK retrogression. December 20th-31st is colder than normal and active w/ an undercutting STJ, with SPV perturbation continuing. In other words, everything's on track. There are heterogeneous stances on initiation/timing among our colleagues here, but by and large, I see the disparities as fairly immaterial and we accord on the larger scale forcing mechanisms

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