The Iceman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, Newman said: GEFS look amazing Not just with this storm but check out the LR... doesn't get much better than that. Locked in -NAO/-AO. Gentleman start your snowblowers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 44 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Even 1-3" would be good. Just to get that feel we're on the right track. We're in a major funk right now.Cloudy/chilly/cold/ rain...repeat. And today we have fog... A coating to an inch is a win. Beggars cant be choosers. I see this as the most likely option for SE PA not verbatim but as in a light event as we get skirted/brushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: A coating to an inch is a win. Beggars cant be choosers. I see this as the most likely option for SE PA not verbatim but as in a light event as we get skirted/brushed Notice the absolutely hilarious gradient that runs NW to SE instead of the usual SW to NE with a south coastal, it's like Monmouth has a destiny of the worst winter ever and nothing will stop it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Beggars can't be choosers it could be my first 1" with the euro on board time for a storm thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Euro is a general 1-3" Southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 ^Probably not a trend, just enough to screw w/us till the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 EPS improved rather dramatically, 18z NAM looks gorgeous, GEFS look amazing. Winning today with great trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Newman said: EPS improved rather dramatically, 18z NAM looks gorgeous, GEFS look amazing. Winning today with great trends. For us out this way too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18z GFS gives us 24 hours of snow, it looked good until the qpf was 1-2" snow. Can it snow that lightly I doubt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 FV3 GFS looks great!!! 6" light pink, 8" dark pink around Philly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 FUV3 does look good especially considering it amps systems too much it gives us wiggle room 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 hours ago, RedSky said: 18z GFS gives us 24 hours of snow, it looked good until the qpf was 1-2" snow. Can it snow that lightly I doubt it? Like every system this winter I expect qpf to increase as we get closer. Finally the super juiced systems may help us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 After looking at the latest models and discussion, I feel as though the models will adjust to the strong high ideally placed in Quebec, and really nobody should have p-type issues. The Euro finally has the right idea. Moderate event and cold. Glad to see winter make a fashionably late appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 big olde strike of thunder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 In other news heavy rain currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 CTG In allaire.....wow for JanPouring out.....Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just had a boomer as well what a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 0z runs so far GFS same HIVF3xyz even further north brings mixing issues especially to yours truly GEM went south looks like azz Were going nowhere fast oh yeah NAM looks like it's headed for a MECS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: Just had a boomer as well what a winter Winter!?... WHERE!? ... I thought it was Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 hours ago, RedSky said: 0z runs so far GFS same HIVF3xyz even further north brings mixing issues especially to yours truly GEM went south looks like azz Were going nowhere fast oh yeah NAM looks like it's headed for a MECS lol 0z ECM juiced up to a region wide 4-5"(kuchera) - wrong time stamp at first look but overall a little more juiced 2-4" non kuchera 0z Ukie driest of all the runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 FVC3PO vs the world....has a 5-10" storm for SE PA and well defined upper energy while most other guidance seemingly is much flatter and more strung out. NAM may be NAMming us in its longest range....rather typical biases appearing. Again tho....we continue to see essentially an all or nothing type event on guidance ie light/light-moderate (c-2 with 3 inch lollis) vs SECS/MECS (4-8"+) for SE PA. Comes down to strength/consolidation of stj energy, phase vs non or late phase, strenth/location of confluence and related HP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 14 hours ago, RedSky said: 18z GFS gives us 24 hours of snow, it looked good until the qpf was 1-2" snow. Can it snow that lightly I doubt it? Yes it can. We've had 24 hours of "pixie dust" up here in Tamaqua that, when all was said and done, was about 1-2 inches. The snow that day was equivelent to a light drizzle, both in intensity and visual impairment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 33 minutes ago, Voyager said: Yes it can. We've had 24 hours of "pixie dust" up here in Tamaqua that, when all was said and done, was about 1-2 inches. The snow that day was equivelent to a light drizzle, both in intensity and visual impairment. I've had 12-18hrs of drizzle-snow which accumulated and inch or less...I don't think I ever had 24hrs. Not that I don't believe you but seems almost impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Early thoughts - I am liking the Euro and suspect some of the 12z runs come north a bit. So early call is 3" to 5" from Southern Chester County across to ACY - with 2" to 4" from N to S from I76 north toward ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 When should we/models start "locking in" to this potential event? Tomorrow night's run? Currently I feel everything is still way up in the air...more so than normal. If this damn thing slides way to the S and we get zip I may lose it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: When should we/models start "locking in" to this potential event? Tomorrow night's run? Currently I feel everything is still way up in the air...more so than normal. If this damn thing slides way to the S and we get zip I may lose it. Goalposts should be clearly set by 18z tomorrow then we just fine tune as we go. Eta: No 'double-doink' hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12z models so far....going wrong direction unless you buy the Para...will wait for King Euro before concern - however a very sharp N to S gradient - best spots SJ and DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12z suite turning this into a Miller B and SE PA essentially gets the double doink....very little with the waa then misses the second part as the coastal develops and heads NE. S NJ does best with this look. Things will change and shift still thru tomorrow then we fine tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I actually like where we are ATM. Really a 50 mile shift N and we are in the game in SE PA. Very doable. I think at the very least most should see their first measurable snow since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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