Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 CMC and FV3 on board. They started moving towards the euro earlier today but emphatically just said screw that: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Give me the Ukie and the game is afoot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 FV3 is more of a double barrel low structure. A good SECS borderline MECS. The plot thickens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Give me the Ukie and the game is afoot I do like how we are within 120 hours and things are slowly starting to step towards better solutions as opposed to stepping down. Usually a good sign. Feeling ok about this one regardless of the KMA and DT's very little N of Richmond jargon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Someone may need to start a thread after 0z. I did well with the Jan 2016 but am 0 for 2 since then. Iceman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 A few flakes of snow starting to fall here, 32F. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Lots of pingers here. Coming down quite heavy against my windows. NWS says 32° but my weather clock says 36°. Although that is right up against the outside of my window (between the outer pan and the screen), so it's probably not quite accurate. I think I might have to mount that outside sensor further away from my house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Light snow here with some sleet mixing in now, 31.8F. Got a dusting/coating so far, expectations pretty low for more, but hey, another step in a snowy direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: Lots of pingers here. Coming down quite heavy against my windows. NWS says 32° but my weather clock says 36°. Although that is right up against the outside of my window (between the outer pan and the screen), so it's probably not quite accurate. I think I might have to mount that outside sensor further away from my house... Probably a good idea. Temp here went from 32.2 to 31.6 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Someone may need to start a thread after 0z. I did well with the Jan 2016 but am 0 for 2 since then. Iceman? Dr No-thing and Ukie agrees GFS is fake weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Have gotten 0.09" of rain so far overnight and the temp has stayed just above freezing so far since midnight here and is currently 33. Not seeing any pingers or flakes but am getting some light drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 30 here with a decent sleet coating and icy roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 36 here and a slight dusting of sleet on my car this morning. Roads were wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Storms this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I do like how we are within 120 hours and things are slowly starting to step towards better solutions as opposed to stepping down. Usually a good sign. Feeling ok about this one regardless of the KMA and DT's very little N of Richmond jargon. Lol and like that all guidance takes a seat on the toilet and drops a big deuce with steps back and a much more sheared out look. The back and forth from run to run this year have been nothing short of breathtaking. I mean, we get 90% of guidance in one suite saying game on in a big way....then next suite the 90% say game off......then back to game on, etc. I will say this....the Euro hasnt and often doesnt make these flips from run to run and is generally the most consistent. On to the next threat or are we still holding out hope for a N trend and a SECS here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Wash, rinse, repeat. It’s really amazing the inconsistency of these models. I think we give it 24-48hrs before we give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Not giving up yet. One day I look forward to model consistency! LOL Ukie/Euro is at least in a better spot atm then the Dec threat y'all were tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I think it's a red flag that the Euro is further SE than even the NAVGEM. FVGFS has been surprisingly consistent as well. Last 4 runs have all brought significant snows to 90% of us here. All is not lost yet... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 NAM at 84 looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Lol and like that all guidance takes a seat on the toilet and drops a big deuce with steps back and a much more sheared out look. The back and forth from run to run this year have been nothing short of breathtaking. I mean, we get 90% of guidance in one suite saying game on in a big way....then next suite the 90% say game off......then back to game on, etc. I will say this....the Euro hasnt and often doesnt make these flips from run to run and is generally the most consistent. On to the next threat or are we still holding out hope for a N trend and a SECS here? no way - keep an eye on this - nice changes on the 12z NAM....for the 1st time in a long time the right ingredients are present....now will it deliver?? who knows but certainly no time to stop watching till at least 0z on the 10th IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: no way - keep an eye on this - nice changes on the 12z NAM....for the 1st time in a long time the right ingredients are present....now will it deliver?? who knows but certainly no time to stop watching till at least 0z on the 10th IMHO I'm with ya....not giving up but the flips and flops are laughable. 12z ICON says not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 38 minutes ago, Newman said: NAM at 84 looks decent That energy N of the GL is what the bigger ticket solutions phased in and helped draw it North. We could still score a light-moderate event with the stj sw still if it comes far enough N. I think we are losing the big ticket setup tho now so we can hope for the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I’m stuck at 33 from a low of 30, misty and raw outside not sure we 45 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GFS came way north at 12z. easily a good 100 miles further N. Only gives us a light 1-3 But really not far off from 2-4 or 3-6. Definitely a good jump, lets hope this is the beginning of a trend. So close to being something big too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, The Iceman said: GFS came way north at 12z. easily a good 100 miles further N. Only gives us a light 1-3 But really not far off from 2-4 or 3-6. Definitely a good jump, lets hope this is the beginning of a trend. So close to being something big too. Like I said a few days ago two scenarios....a phased SECS/MECS or a light-borderline moderate event. The former is on life support. I would be thrilled with flakes falling in any form. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 MECS for SNJ on the CMC. Sharp cut off though. 3-6 for 95. 2-4 to the ne extension. 1-3 NW of there. A bit S from last night but further N than the GFS. Perhaps models coming to some consensus after all? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 39F, cloudy/foggy/misty and down right raw...some rain building a bit to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Like I said a few days ago two scenarios....a phased SECS/MECS or a light-borderline moderate event. The former is on life support. I would be thrilled with flakes falling in any form. 2-4 with the incoming cold would be a nice start to the pattern change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 20 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 2-4 with the incoming cold would be a nice start to the pattern change... Even 1-3" would be good. Just to get that feel we're on the right track. We're in a major funk right now.Cloudy/chilly/cold/ rain...repeat. And today we have fog... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GEFS look amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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