zenmsav6810 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Didnt see this posted here in the Philly forum so here ya go. I'll take my 4'+ and be satisfied with winter. I think I95 can write off the next 6 days or so for all intents and anything meaningful so in essence this is mid Jan thru mid Feb. Drool worthy. This essentially says big time epic flip of all pattern flips on the way whether or not we verify the totals this is spitting out. We take. talk about a weenie map. 4' is just the maximum colorbar too, so this might be conservative! How does this model verify ?... I wonder what it looked like a month ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: talk about a weenie map. 4' is just the maximum colorbar too, so this might be conservative! How does this model verify ?... I wonder what it looked like a month ago I saw it a month ago we were in 12-18" by mid January so that worked out well...if it meant rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Fv3 has snow on the 7th and an IVT for the Jersey coast on the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Newman said: Fv3 has snow on the 7th and an IVT for the Jersey coast on the 10th Nice storm signal also showing up Jan 12-14. At least the activity isn't slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Inverted trough for the Howell bungalow i take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 hours ago, Newman said: Fv3 has snow on the 7th and an IVT for the Jersey coast on the 10th There have been trends in all of the models for the 7th of the air being much cooler than initially anticipated. So much so that I am actually thinking most may start as snow here. Hopefully we can all at least see some flakes, it's needed in here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 soooo is no one gonna mention that the 12z euro smokes us on day 9... only 8 days to go!! nice storm signal showing up though in all of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: soooo is no one gonna mention that the 12z euro smokes us on day 9... only 8 days to go!! nice storm signal showing up though in all of the models. Looks like every coastal storm since 09-10 where I get screwed right on the edge. Lock it in boys. Just kidding, its nice to see storm signals, even in the weenie range. We haven't had any fantasy storms to track yet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 BTW the meso models are in agreement for another 1-2" for most of the delaware river valley. Wouldn't be surprised to see these totals go up with the dynamics in place. Surprised no flood watch, I guess even though it's been wet, there isn't really a flood threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, The Iceman said: soooo is no one gonna mention that the 12z euro smokes us on day 9... only 8 days to go!! nice storm signal showing up though in all of the models. Fringed In all seriousness that's the period that has looked most favorable for a few days now Jan 12-14. Also of note all globals and ens generally flip the crud pattern over alot earlier than previously modeled. That period ushers in winter whether the particular storm u posted a map of verifies or not. Looks to be here to stay thereafter. Busy times ahead. Where is Paul after he was starting to get a little nervous about his winter outlook? Btw Iceman did u see the control? Both our winter forecasts could be busted by end of next weekend lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Over just the last couple days it appears it's all coming together for the second half. Half of yore is better than no yore at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Over just the last couple days it appears it's all coming together for the second half. Half of yore is better than no yore at all. Hear hear!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 First half of 78' was garbage it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 hours ago, RedSky said: Inverted trough for the Howell bungalow i take Howell......now that explains why SoMoCo is in a permanent flood state and no longer Then again the Poconos are not doing any better post thanksgiving..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fringed In all seriousness that's the period that has looked most favorable for a few days now Jan 12-14. Also of note all globals and ens generally flip the crud pattern over alot earlier than previously modeled. That period ushers in winter whether the particular storm u posted a map of verifies or not. Looks to be here to stay thereafter. Busy times ahead. Where is Paul after he was starting to get a little nervous about his winter outlook? Btw Iceman did u see the control? Both our winter forecasts could be busted by end of next weekend lol. Hey Steve....nervous for sure as no one but God knows what lies ahead but I have not wavered on the cold and storms and rumors of storms ahead....my original take on the cold by the 8th is in trouble as I think the real cold does not lock in for at least another 12 days. However, as I keep saying we do not need below normal temps to snow in this area in January. So while I see some of the EURO runs showing a storm in about 10 days it is far from a lock - especially the solution the folks in the NY/Long Island area are hugging. It will need to be watched as a winter event is on the table....either way I remain confident of some strong cold in our future in the late January through Mid-February timeframe. This is often the timeframe that results in some of the "winter of yore" talk we have discussed. Some very interesting times ahead IMHO.....stay tuned! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Almost a perfect 500mb map. Perhaps the eastern troughing is a bit too deep aided by the -NAO a little south in its domain but wow anyway. This is what we've been waiting for, 1/20-3/1 should be rocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Wow this sequence is amazing. A TPV vortex drops down from the arctic regions and filling the void is the formation of a -AO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 Picked up 0.29" of rain so far today. Current temp 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Looks like the rain started here around 11 pm last night giving me 0.06". Currently at 0.40" this morning so far (0.46" event total) and 44 with light rain. Looks like a dry slot may be moving in soon so will see how things evolve later today with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 It's Saturday. It's raining. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 0.29" of rain since last evening here in East Nantmeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sibbley Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Raining pretty heavy in Nazareth right now. Measured 0.70 since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sibbley Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Now 0.76 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Not in Jersey this time but the storm still popped a bit of a death band in the Lehigh Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sibbley Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 That death band is running right through the center of Northampton county. Up to 0.88 as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Radar estimates of 2.5" NE of Allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 20 minutes ago, sibbley said: That death band is running right through the center of Northampton county. Up to 0.88 as of now. I looked at a radar loop of a wider area of that and there's some cool stuff happening. There is broad circulation starting to wrap precip around from the NE to generate some stuff that is starting to come in from the N/NW. On the surface map, the low sitting over VA/MD is wrapping that ocean moisture right into the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 It's been the same thing every storm just this one is displaced off to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Nice little spin/pivot action going on....mod/heavy rain. (not snow!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 My lake is back on only .60" of rain and the death band is headed this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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