JTA66 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Flurries!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Flurries coming down. At least I know it can still snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Well I'll be damned. Getting flurries here in NW Philly. Temp is 35. Interesting cutoff - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Happy to report light steady snow here !!! 34 Degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Snow flurries falling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Flakeage in NW Chesco 33 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Dr No (Euro) emphatically cuts the late week storm West of Ohio. Can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dr No (Euro) emphatically cuts the late week storm West of Ohio. Can't make this stuff up. Did we really think otherwise? Seems the theme this season so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Haven't seen a bonafide snow flurry yet this year! Lucky me nothing fell today because it would have been LIQUID Might be even worse than 2012 locally through the first half of winter. Ugh times 10,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Next and most intriguing threat window Jan 8-10. Major teleconnections lining up rather favorably with nice looking PAC and decent transient (for now) ATL side with energy undercutting the region and an active NS. First time in a long time all 3 major global ops (and ens) show snow for the region....maybe since November. Finally seeing some positive changes down the road as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 A week or so ago most knowledgeable mets were saying the significant pattern change would probably not occur until the middle of January. I don't see anything that should change that outlook. People are losing patience in all the nearby subforums. I like that most of our storms are SS in origin. Just need some blocking. Just like last March it will happen. It's going to snow. Bigly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 I have no doubt things will change and the cold will be here soon, but I really don’t want to go through last year with the snowy March imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Next and most intriguing threat window Jan 8-10. Major teleconnections lining up rather favorably with nice looking PAC and decent transient (for now) ATL side with energy undercutting the region and an active NS. First time in a long time all 3 major global ops (and ens) show snow for the region....maybe since November. Finally seeing some positive changes down the road as well. You see the Euro? And I agree that around the 10th is our next shot. The 6z GFS almost looked like 2/5/10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 hour ago, wkd said: A week or so ago most knowledgeable mets were saying the significant pattern change would probably not occur until the middle of January. I don't see anything that should change that outlook. People are losing patience in all the nearby subforums. I like that most of our storms are SS in origin. Just need some blocking. Just like last March it will happen. It's going to snow. Bigly. I think today we are right where we said we wanted to be 2 weeks ago which is starting to see slight transitioning in the pattern and also seeing some fantasy storms in the long range finally with stuff to track. MJO forecasts slowly coming around as well tho the eps mjo still entering the cod where the GEFS MJO gets to 7 and stalls. Either one is better than being stuck in phase 6 so these are all positives moving forward imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Slug of rain, not snow but rain ready to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 The 10th looking good now to be rainstorm number what now like number15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 36 and cold moderate rain falling, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 25 minutes ago, RedSky said: All new look on the day 10 storm on the euro, as in looks tropical out lol In spite of the long range model teases we've been getting lending hope to stepping down into a better pattern, it's looking more and more like we may have to actually wait until Jan. 15th - 20th. At least it's only 2 or 3 weeks away now. Which means a week or so away from seeing it reflected in model runs. Part of me wants to lol, but I'm keeping the faith for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 2 hours ago, RedSky said: The 10th looking good now to be rainstorm number what now like number15 February is going to be classic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 6 hours ago, Newman said: You see the Euro? And I agree that around the 10th is our next shot. The 6z GFS almost looked like 2/5/10. And like someone waved a magic wand poof....good pattern look all but gone. I'm sure it will be back and that period still has a threat but it is comical and frustrating at the same time to see the flopping in the models simultaneously from run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 I'm still sticking with around Jan 10th as when we see the pattern change and the 15th as when the show begins. The SSWE is already underway and will yield the AO/NAO blocking that we need. Then we wait for the MJO to cycle into favorable phases 7-8-and possibly 1. But if we can get the MJO to reach phase 8 and then enter the COD, that's so much better than having it enter in, lets say phase 5, because in that situation the unfavorable lag is even longer. I know we're all impatient but really there's nothing we can do. Personally, I think this stratospheric warming event is screwing this winter up, at least so far. We were heading towards the right direction until the MJO stalled in the unfavorable phases, possibly a result of the SSWE as Isotherm has alluded to in other sub forums. The cooler tropospheric temperatures in the tropics correlated to the SSWE likely induced a much better environment for the MJO convection to thrive, notably increasing lapse rates and increasing the convection. Stalling and enhancing the MJO in the unfavorable phases just eliminated a huge chunk of late December and early January due to an enhanced NP jet extension. Then we wait until mid January for any lag to wear off and the PAC jet to relax and what do you know we have a 1 to 1 1/2 months left of winter. Of course, we can still produce in the month of winter we have. Look at February 2010 for the upper Mid-Atlantic. You had the Feb 5-7th storm followed by the Feb 10-12th storm. Parts of southern PA picked up nearly 50" in that week alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 50 minutes ago, Newman said: I'm still sticking with around Jan 10th as when we see the pattern change and the 15th as when the show begins. The SSWE is already underway and will yield the AO/NAO blocking that we need. Then we wait for the MJO to cycle into favorable phases 7-8-and possibly 1. But if we can get the MJO to reach phase 8 and then enter the COD, that's so much better than having it enter in, lets say phase 5, because in that situation the unfavorable lag is even longer. I know we're all impatient but really there's nothing we can do. Personally, I think this stratospheric warming event is screwing this winter up, at least so far. We were heading towards the right direction until the MJO stalled in the unfavorable phases, possibly a result of the SSWE as Isotherm has alluded to in other sub forums. The cooler tropospheric temperatures in the tropics correlated to the SSWE likely induced a much better environment for the MJO convection to thrive, notably increasing lapse rates and increasing the convection. Stalling and enhancing the MJO in the unfavorable phases just eliminated a huge chunk of late December and early January due to an enhanced NP jet extension. Then we wait until mid January for any lag to wear off and the PAC jet to relax and what do you know we have a 1 to 1 1/2 months left of winter. Of course, we can still produce in the month of winter we have. Look at February 2010 for the upper Mid-Atlantic. You had the Feb 5-7th storm followed by the Feb 10-12th storm. Parts of southern PA picked up nearly 50" in that week alone. Good post. I posted essentially the same ideas in the mid atl thread a few hours ago. GEFS have been consistently pointing to mid January as well as the Euro weeklies. For whatever reason the eps have been against the change or severely delaying that good look. Could be right but for the reasons I mentioned over there and which you echo here I am very optimistic it is on it's way in a couple of weeks. Heck we could even possibly score something as we are still in this crud pattern but taking steps up. Frustrating yes. But it's not like Dec and part of January being punted wasnt expected during this Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Up to a 0.1" since records began at 4:27 pm today on the Davis Vantage Vue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: Up to a 0.1" since records began at 4:27 pm today on the Davis Vantage Vue! Congrats! You should save it and put in the display case! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 It's been pouring the last hour with a massive blob of yellows and oranges passing through, lake Howell is back it receded for one day this is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's been pouring the last hour with a massive blob of yellows and oranges passing through, lake Howell is back it receded for one day this is nuts. Up to 0.75" for the day here, most of it this evening. Sounds like you need an amphibious vehicle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: Up to a 0.1" since records began at 4:27 pm today on the Davis Vantage Vue! Up to 0.54" since 4:30 ish here. Anxious to see how my station does with this wind event tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Had 0.89" on 12/31 and currently at 0.04" additional so far early this morning (0.93" for 2 days). I saw that Mt. Holly had lofted a flood advisory for Philly metro. This was definitely a juicy system! Also temp has been shooting up and now up to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Fwiw overnight GEFS still consistent in advertising a much batter pattern with more favorable PAC look and HL blocking towards mid month. GEPS took a move towards the GEFS and relatively similar with key features. EPS finally started to budge at the end of the run just a few days later. These are all positives and we are on schedule believe it or not still for what many have been advertising irt mid month pattern changes to a more wintry look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Picked up 1.13" of rain for the day yesterday. Storm total 1.23" Current temp 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now