ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1.10" so far here in NW Chester County PA up to 78.20" now for our record year +3.08" above the old mark from 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 New FV3PGFS3CPOR2D2 has a similar look now for late next week as it just did 24 hours ago for Sunday. ICON is inline again just like 12z yesterday. Not buying the old Lucy football yank this time around....its like some sort of sick groundhog day dejavu joke. Until the euro jumps on board then I will hug it until 18z when guidance drives a stake thru the heart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I still don't see anything that would make me nervous yet about this winter. Last year the MJO stalled in p7 for Feb (a warm phase in February) and likely aided in the SSW we saw that gave us the cold and snowy pattern in March and April. With the enhanced convection in the tropics, it likely resulted in more heat transport into the upper atmosphere and resulted in a perturbed polar vortex. The same has occurred this year except this year in December and in p5 (a warm phase for December). Now the enhanced MJO convection isn't highhandedly the only factor, but you can't ignore the similarities between a stuck MJO last winter to this winter and a SSW that followed. A SSW is on its way similar to last winter and will likely aid in giving us our core snow and cold from January 10th-March 1st. Our ENSO phase typically argues for a back loaded winter to begin with. No need to panic everyone, patience is needed. It's coming. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1.30" of rain so far. Just saw a couple of bugs outside flying - looked like mosquitos but probably not, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1.34" here now. Currently 59 and down pouring. Also very windy. Stay dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I have this very unsettling feeling that we are going to pay for all this wet weather in the form of cold and dry for weeks then a damp cool spring just to give us all a final kick while we're down. You just know it's coming. All this talk of significant pattern change....what would be more polar opposite of the (relatively) mild and wet that we have been locked into for 6 weeks? Hints that the AO may tank, like severely tank -3 to -4 sd... Would mean suppression city here. I still think our best bet is going to be clippers going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Lake Howell is back. Radar estimates say 1" in my region but the amount of water outside looks like 3-4" fell, likely the ground is so super saturated it's not holding any water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 The MJO RMM charts are likely not picking up on rossby wave interference. Here is a better look at the MJO progression. We should be in favorable phase 7 by Jan 4th or 5th based on this forecast. With lag taken into account, Jan 8-10th should be a good time frame for better eastern troughing to take shape. A jet extension could also help instead of hinder us here with increasing AAM, helping to pump the PNA ridge poleward. We want to see that Alaskan vortex retrograde to around the Aleutians which would ensure a better PNA orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I have a crew installing solar panels on my roof in all of this rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 28, 2018 Author Share Posted December 28, 2018 Picked up 0.88" of rain so far today. Current temp 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Bluescat1 said: I have a crew installing solar panels on my roof in all of this rain. At least it's warm out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Am up to 1.45" of rain so far at post time. Temps were still rising (although it just dropped back from 59) and now up to 58 and currently have light rain. I was surprised to see some young trees budding/blooming and my butterfly bush threw out some leaves - near the top too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, KamuSnow said: At least it's warm out! It's wild how this year, New Year's Eve/Day will probably be the polar opposite of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Newman said: The MJO RMM charts are likely not picking up on rossby wave interference. Here is a better look at the MJO progression. We should be in favorable phase 7 by Jan 4th or 5th based on this forecast. With lag taken into account, Jan 8-10th should be a good time frame for better eastern troughing to take shape. Good post and graphics. Getting the MJO to phase 7 will cure a piece of our pattern issues. The cutters are having a good run, time to turn the page! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 18z GFS OP and FV3CPO really trying to spin up the 'Newman Storm' second part of next week. At this rate we'll end up with another phased cutter rather than the thread a needle wave along an old front we were originally looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS OP and FV3CPO really trying to spin up the 'Newman Storm' second part of next week. At this rate we'll end up with another phased cutter rather than the thread a needle wave along an old front we were originally looking at. Nah, lol. Fwiw every model has had some variation of it in the last 4 runs. We're gonna have to work for it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2018 Author Share Posted December 29, 2018 Picked up 1.08" of rain for the day. Storm total 1.08" Current temp 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 Ended up with 2.26". Many puddles! Anyways, at least all three main models have a signal for snow on the 4th. But, still far out its something to track though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 On 12/26/2018 at 7:23 PM, KamuSnow said: Anyone notice how stingy the CMC has been for snow here, since it's upgrade? It used to be a snow hero for digital snow, not any more. Back in full weenie force! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Back in full weenie force! Lol, that puts a smile on my face. Come on baby, only 6 days to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 It’s funny how the 7 day forecast had temps in the mid 30’s for highs after the new year now today they are creeping up now forecast in the low 40’s, beginning to get a really uneasy feeling about this winter. Is it possible that November snow was precursor to a crappy winter? I’m not knowledgeable about the patterns but, I guess we have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 If you enjoy winter weather keep the faith - as those of you that follow models can see the models are all struggling mightily. This is normal during significant events like the current Strat Warming event....models will start catching on - after New Years a much chillier pattern progressing in a step wise fashion toward a much below pattern by later in the month with multiple winter events possible. Remember even slightly above normal temps in January can yield snowstorms for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: If you enjoy winter weather keep the faith - as those of you that follow models can see the models are all struggling mightily. This is normal during significant events like the current Strat Warming event....models will start catching on - after New Years a much chillier pattern progressing in a step wise fashion toward a much below pattern by later in the month with multiple winter events possible. Remember even slightly above normal temps in January can yield snowstorms for our area. Seeing several pro forecasters and even some really good hobbyists starting to back down from the 'epic winter' talk and now just mentioning a subtle and slow transition to a colder pattern which might be favorable for chances. Hoping u r right Paul and we can salvage the mid Jan and forward period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 EPS continues going in reverse clearly not the direction we want to step. Luckily other guidance is bouncing around still but the EPS has taken steps back for a few runs now and is actually trying to re-establish the recent meh pattern down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seeing several pro forecasters and even some really good hobbyists starting to back down from the 'epic winter' talk and now just mentioning a subtle and slow transition to a colder pattern which might be favorable for chances. Hoping u r right Paul and we can salvage the mid Jan and forward period! Steve - great write up today from Dr. Dewpoint (Dr.Joe D'Leo) on why folks are missing what is right in front of us - for those of us like you and I that are hobbyist we can miss the science by getting distracted by model confusion. He continues to see the mid-January period as the start of significant winter weather that the models are missing - he is one of the best and I have no reason to think some significant cold and snow is in our future....plus it matches what I have been saying since November - so no reason for me to change now - right?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seeing several pro forecasters and even some really good hobbyists starting to back down from the 'epic winter' talk and now just mentioning a subtle and slow transition to a colder pattern which might be favorable for chances. Hoping u r right Paul and we can salvage the mid Jan and forward period! Of course I don't know who has been calling for an "epic" winter - I certainly have not - an above normal snow year - certainly but a 55" to 60" winter in the NW Philly burbs is far from epic - now if someone was calling for an 80" + winter that would be epic but I have not seen any of those called for with this upcoming season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6z GFS hammers central PA for the 3rd. Getting interesting. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Edit. 0z placed the low around the benchmark. 6z parked the low in Jersey lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Tucked slp ftl.....unless you live in the NW burbs. Euro, CMC, Icon and fvc3po similar. Will monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 NAVGEM is SECsy FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Fields27 said: 6z GFS hammers central PA for the 3rd. Getting interesting. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Edit. 0z placed the low around the benchmark. 6z parked the low in Jersey lol. Yet 6z was closer to a better hit based on H5....more of a classic taint to rain to pasty snow look. The Nov storm had a similar tucked track but was able to give i95 some snow so it's possible with the proper vort pass setup we could do something like that again. But we've already seen some drastic flips in the last 18 hours irt this threat so I expect more changes before guidance reaches a consensus. Looks like battle of the globals right now with the 2 heavyweights (euro and gfs) slugging it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now