The Iceman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The fv3 blows. It had a winter of yore this year if it was a decent model. Too bad none of it ever materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Let alone the 10 day long range pattern change that has YET to happen! Temps forecast 50's -more rain by the weekend. I wouldn't bet on any of that. It will most likely verify just like every event so far this winter...………..a mix to rain. Until you tell me the Atlantic (-NAO) is cooperating, or the pattern HAS really changed, not biting--- but as always appreciate reading your discussions. Just my amateur opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 2:40 PM, Lady Di said: Let alone the 10 day long range pattern change that has YET to happen! Temps forecast 50's -more rain by the weekend. I wouldn't bet on any of that. It will most likely verify just like every event so far this winter...………..a mix to rain. Until you tell me the Atlantic (-NAO) is cooperating, or the pattern HAS really changed, not biting--- but as always appreciate reading your discussions. Just my amateur opinion. Expand Your pessimism is completely justified based on the last few months. However, the SOI is lowest neg SD today since early January. MJO is going into phase 8 and not in fantasy land. NAO is trending negative right now finally so that is a real thing. I guess like Santa seeing is believing. More wintry weather is on the way for our region over next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 2:12 PM, The Iceman said: The fv3 blows. It had a winter of yore this year if it was a decent model. Too bad none of it ever materialized. Expand Has there really been one *reliable* model though? The Euro may have been worse than the FV3 with the head fakes in the LR tbh. Showed MECS/HECS many times this year. LR forecasts have been bad on models. The weekend threat is now medium range and the FV3 has done fair in that period. We'll see. Still think this is a DC South special with a fringe job here but we have a few things working in our favor for once so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 ICON fringes us Saturday with the system riding along to our South then has a SECS Sunday night into Monday with another system right behind that towards and of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 @RedSky....never did hit that 60F today eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 GFS is a fringe Saturday but cane much farther than last run. Then has a SECS for Sunday and Sunday night. 1-2 punch like the fv3 and ICON. Entering range now....both threats seem legit. Unicorn has arrived! @The Icemanquick need a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 4:10 PM, Newman said: Expand Perfect ull pass. Borderline MECS with the 2nd system. Wonder if one will steal the show from the other somehow or if they combine into 1 extended event? I suppose a scenario where both waves are just nuisance events is possible too though I dont put much stock into that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Holy crap! Dont loop the GFS 12z....just dont do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 12z GFS for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Why the unbridled enthusiasm for the GFS run? First system is south, the second one has a primary in Pittsburgh so it's depiction of frozen is wrong it's a storm like today. Third storm is snow to rain and a lot of rain. That is winter of 2019 summed up in one week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 4:47 PM, RedSky said: Why the unbridled enthusiasm for the GFS run? First system is south, the second one has a primary in Pittsburgh so it's depiction of frozen is wrong it's a storm like today. Third storm is snow to rain and a lot of rain. That is winter of 2019 summed up in one week Expand Lot of threats and cold air around, teleconnections getting better. I’ll take my chances over the crap we’ve dealt with the past few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 4:47 PM, RedSky said: Why the unbridled enthusiasm for the GFS run? First system is south, the second one has a primary in Pittsburgh so it's depiction of frozen is wrong it's a storm like today. Third storm is snow to rain and a lot of rain. That is winter of 2019 summed up in one week Expand Wow do you ever say anything positive? I must say I like you since you actually make me look good. Most people that know me tell me im the most negative person. But you actually make me look positive and thats saying a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Meh 6 snow threats in the next 12 days with a couple MECS and a HECS. Meh, Ive seen better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Biggest storm of all brewing in the South at 384 on the GFS. Verbatim that would be the monster we' e been waiting on and a beautiful way to wrap up winter. Wont happen probably but man what a sick sick run thru the end and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 DT doesn't like the next couple weeks i'm telling you curb your enthusiasm in the winter of azz Look at today another utter train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 5:01 PM, RedSky said: DT doesn't like the next couple weeks i'm telling you curb your enthusiasm in the winter of azz Look at today another utter train wreck Expand Dt. Is no longer saying that. He admitted he was wrong. Now likes possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 4:47 PM, RedSky said: Why the unbridled enthusiasm for the GFS run? First system is south, the second one has a primary in Pittsburgh so it's depiction of frozen is wrong it's a storm like today. Third storm is snow to rain and a lot of rain. That is winter of 2019 summed up in one week Expand I get that this winter has sucked for you, but wow you have really gone off the deep end with these pessimistic posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 5:01 PM, RedSky said: DT doesn't like the next couple weeks i'm telling you curb your enthusiasm in the winter of azz Look at today another utter train wreck Expand See his last update this AM. He apologized saying he was severely incorrect and to brace yourselves. Unicorn is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Gfs and Fv-3 would get me back to almost average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 5:10 PM, Newman said: I get that this winter has sucked for you, but wow you have really gone off the deep end with these pessimistic posts. Expand We all have our moments but what was once silly and cute now has me legit concerned about his well-being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 5:10 PM, Newman said: I get that this winter has sucked for you, but wow you have really gone off the deep end with these pessimistic posts. Expand I have 2.2" for the winter and doubt there was a single ensemble member had me pegged for .5" frozen today how could i not be pessimistic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 5:29 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: See his last update this AM. He apologized saying he was severely incorrect and to brace yourselves. Unicorn is here. Expand HM just said no -NAO happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Not worried about it. Whatever happens will happen. I see enough of a good pattern look moving forward that even minus a raging neg NAO we still have chance after chance. It beats being 60f and sitting on the beach. Take it as it comes. This HM person could be incorrect as much as me and anyone else. I've seen what I need to over the next 2 weeks+ of progs to keep me VERY vested going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 ensemble members are good for east central Jersey why am i not optimistic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 5:57 PM, RedSky said: 3 ensemble members are good for east central Jersey why am i not optimistic lol Expand Also you live in eastern nj. You shouldnt even be expecting snow. Move nw if you want or expect snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 6:02 PM, Stormman96 said: Also you live in eastern nj. You shouldnt even be expecting snow. Move nw if you want or expect snow Expand Can you explain that as family in Monmouth have beaten Qtown most years in snow amounts you don't know what you are talking about. As I am moving to Kutztown i hope that is the case lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Monmouth peeps get your industrial snowblowers off season for next winter your going to need them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Euro is a nice hit for Saturday especially along S PA. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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