Hurricane Agnes Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Finished up with 0.05" this morning for a 2-day storm total of 0.94". Currently a breezy 58 and overcast. Good luck to all the Mummers strutting out there today - may your costumes stay intact in the wind while your spirit flies free to showcase your talent and show 'em what Philly is all about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Still haven't replaced my broken rain gauge, but it sure "sounded" like an inch of rain fell. Currently 55F, feels like late March out there. I'm sure everyone saw donsutherland's post in the NY forum that the SOI is now negative for the second consecutive day. Let's hope it's a sign the MJO is moving along and not a hiccup before bouncing back into positive territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Interestingly awful winter so far. November gave me about 5.5" snow and 8.6" rain. Then came December with zip for snow and another 5.4" rain. 2018 after March was in my mind the wettest most disgusting year weatherwise I have experienced. 2019 can only be an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Found a slug first thing today, yes that's right likely the least cold hardy of bugs in mid winter. The year of the slug. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 GFS op (FWIW which might not be much) has basically a neg -NAO entire run keeps on rebuilding it. -ao off and on. Flattened ridge n of HI. Ridge bridge towards end. Really good look. Awaiting GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 On 12/27/2018 at 12:40 PM, ChescoPaWxman said: Lots going on and the models will struggle mightily with individual events...that said nothing has changed my thinking on our delayed but not denied below normal temps and AN snow coming to a town near you from Mid-Jan thru February....could it be the winter of yore so many are yearning for on this forum?? Of course we are already in the winter of yore as we are still on a path to record the snowiest decade in our history - when it gets back to normal snow years in this area folks are gonna be mighty depressed! 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS op (FWIW which might not be much) has basically a neg -NAO entire run keeps on rebuilding it. -ao off and on. Flattened ridge n of HI. Ridge bridge towards end. Really good look. Awaiting GEFS. Again folks nothing has swayed my view of a very interesting winter weather season....for those that like winter weather. I have seen a few posts this week about how bad December was for snow....but of course as most of us know. In this area snow before January is just a bonus. Our peak time is from Mid Jan thru February....all signs are still positive......but if you are a Negadelphian.....I can't help you. However, the best news is the greatest sport has spring training starting next month....so keep the faith!!! Go Phils!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Saturday's storm looks like a huge rain producer, a near perfect track storm for the region and no cold air. This pattern is without words horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Saturday's storm looks like a huge rain producer, a near perfect track storm for the region and no cold air. This pattern is without words horrid. This pattern was extremely well forecast by many at the end of November where December was going to be punted specifically based on Nino (tho u could argue it was a wash for other reasons but end result was the same) and first half of January was always our transition as we approach a wintry pattern in mid month. Anything before January 15 was and is still considered a bonus. I wont disagree with your post, yes, the pattern sucks but we knew this going in. Hang in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This pattern was extremely well forecast by many at the end of November where December was going to be punted specifically based on Nino (tho u could argue it was a wash for other reasons but end result was the same) and first half of January was always our transition as we approach a wintry pattern in mid month. Anything before January 15 was and is still considered a bonus. I wont disagree with your post, yes, the pattern sucks but we knew this going in. Hang in. Nobody forecast 15" rain imby through early January, I label this the suicide pattern and hope we never see it again Every rain system in November and December has at minimum hit expectations and the majority have over performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I agree with redsky. This is the most horrid winter for heavy rain that I have ever experienced in the last 30+ years in the LV. All I can say is that this year resembles 1983 in all a lot of aspects. A 20+ inch snowstorm in February like 1983 would be an absolute killer right now for the antecedent flooding conditions that exist. The soils are the most saturated that I have ever witnessed and the ground water levels are at the highest levels in almost 100 years of USGS recording in the LV. A 20 inch hard packed and frozen snow base with a 3 plus inch rain event with 50+ degree temps would be as catastrophic as an early summer 7+ inch hurricane (Agnes). This is a real concern right now because I actually see this situation happening in our current weather pattern setting up for February. Every single rainfall over one inch at my house since November has resulted in flooding conditions of the Little Lehigh Creek- yes I said one inch not 3 or 4 inches. There is no more room for to handle runoff into the ground. When the soils begin to refreeze in a few weeks, all hell is going to break loose after the first of manyPacific pineapple express systems start to come ashore, creating one after another MIller A situations. All it takes is one week of below 20 degree highs and near zero lows and anything falling on the ground becomes 100% runoff compounding an existing flooding situation in even a one inch rain. Not good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ME_wannabe Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 59 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I agree with redsky. This is the most horrid winter for heavy rain that I have ever experienced in the last 30+ years in the LV. All I can say is that this year resembles 1983 in all a lot of aspects. A 20+ inch snowstorm in February like 1983 would be an absolute killer right now for the antecedent flooding conditions that exist. The soils are the most saturated that I have ever witnessed and the ground water levels are at the highest levels in almost 100 years of USGS recording in the LV. A 20 inch hard packed and frozen snow base with a 3 plus inch rain event with 50+ degree temps would be as catastrophic as an early summer 7+ inch hurricane (Agnes). This is a real concern right now because I actually see this situation happening in our current weather pattern setting up for February. Every single rainfall over one inch at my house since November has resulted in flooding conditions of the Little Lehigh Creek- yes I said one inch not 3 or 4 inches. There is no more room for to handle runoff into the ground. When the soils begin to refreeze in a few weeks, all hell is going to break loose after the first of manyPacific pineapple express systems start to come ashore, creating one after another MIller A situations. All it takes is one week of below 20 degree highs and near zero lows and anything falling on the ground becomes 100% runoff compounding an existing flooding situation in even a one inch rain. Not good This is certainly a big concern for many in my area as well. We live in a rural area and we all have septic systems. Somehow I've had no problems but my neighbors are already pumping water from their tanks onto bare grounds behind their homes. We all have 5 +/- acre lots but it's just not a good thing and never have seen this in the 30+ years living there. We need a dry spell! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Instead of being skirted by some show or light precip to our South now looks more like a period of, you guessed it, heavy rain on a Saturday.....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Seems like the ens are backing down on the -nao in the LR. Looks positive thru mid month now. May not be until Feb until the pattern actually gets favorable imo. I'd prepare for a 2 week all or nothing period that will make or break our entire winter because that is what's this is all building towards imo I'm pretty confident in saying this month is 3/4th punted already... And by next week if things continue how they have since December, we will be putting all of January. Does not look good right now and I'd love those who think other wise to post some reasons it looks good for anything other than a brief favorable period other than climo saying it's our snowiest time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I'll give it to 1/15 before I go looking for the towel, but that 1994-95 analog is looking better by the day. I tried reading HM's tweets this morning -- sounds like it going to take some time (if ever) for the tropics sort themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: I'll give it to 1/15 before I go looking for the towel, but that 1994-95 analog is looking better by the day. I tried reading HM's tweets this morning -- sounds like it going to take some time (if ever) for the tropics sort themselves out. Im looking at the same time frame before punting any SUSTAINED wintry pattern. If mid month comes and nothing even remotely on the horizon I doubt we will see much in the form of anything favorable becoming sustained. Could still get some fluke snows as winter(?) winds down but again I am saying "sustained" wintry pattern. Give it til mid month. Many had a flip at that time into 6 weeks+ of sustained wintry weather. Fingers are crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 33 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I'll give it to 1/15 before I go looking for the towel, but that 1994-95 analog is looking better by the day. I tried reading HM's tweets this morning -- sounds like it going to take some time (if ever) for the tropics sort themselves out. I read his tweet thread last night also, looking for some reasons for optimism and came away with the opposite, lol. Or more like wahhh. I've rescheduled my hypothetical maybe some snow date range to Jan. 20th - 25th. Still hopeful but the 7 - 10 day teases have gotten old. I think the average temps here bottomed Dec. 5th - 12th and have been creeping up since. Hard to even get below freezing this week. Might as well go full torch for a couple of weeks and wait for that arctic cold front like we've done the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Not buying these "weak" qpf estimates of around .75" for Saturday. Same track as the others that exploded and looked like tropical storms as they got to the coast the last couple months, by hook or by crook 1.5-2.5" will manage to fall in sections of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Euro has a sneaky CAD signature for next mon night into tuesday. don't think it'll be enough for 95 but if I lived in the LV, this is definitely something to watch for at least ice. Further N and W you are the better you look. CMC is on board as well. GFS is way more progressive. Something to watch at least though the outcome is most likely rain for 95. Euro also has an apps runner at day 10 that looks to be a pattern changer imo... pretty good run compared to yesterday and last night as at least there is a chance at some frozen inside 10 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Out of curiosity, I was looking through records for when the last time PHL failed to measure snow all of December and January. Recently, 2015-16 was pretty bad until that one large event salvaged things. Without it, both months would have had 3" total (none in December). 11/12 - 2.5 total (none in December) 07/08 - 2.6 total 06/07 - 2.2 total 01/02 - 4.0 total all winter (zero snow in December, Feb, or March) 97/98 - 0.8 total all winter (I remember this stinker) 96/97 - 1.7 total 94/95 - Here's your true winner. Technically, there were three "Trace" measurements in January, but other than that, total shutout. I went through 1968 and found one more year of zilch (72/73). In fact, as far as I can tell, the winters of 1972-73 and 1997-98 are the two worst on record in terms of snowfall. So, in the last 50 years, only twice has there been no real snow measured in PHL between December and January. By that I mean anything other than "Trace" events. Although, it is more common than I would have expected to see one of the two months between December and January to get next to no snow. It looks like this year could be another in that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, jwilson said: Out of curiosity, I was looking through records for when the last time PHL failed to measure snow all of December and January. Recently, 2015-16 was pretty bad until that one large event salvaged things. Without it, both months would have had 3" total (none in December). 11/12 - 2.5 total (none in December) 07/08 - 2.6 total 06/07 - 2.2 total 01/02 - 4.0 total all winter (zero snow in December, Feb, or March) 97/98 - 0.8 total all winter (I remember this stinker) 96/97 - 1.7 total 94/95 - Here's your true winner. Technically, there were three "Trace" measurements in January, but other than that, total shutout. I went through 1968 and found one more year of zilch (72/73). In fact, as far as I can tell, the winters of 1972-73 and 1997-98 are the two worst on record in terms of snowfall. So, in the last 50 years, only twice has there been no real snow measured in PHL between December and January. By that I mean anything other than "Trace" events. Although, it is more common than I would have expected to see one of the two months between December and January to get next to no snow. It looks like this year could be another in that list. Good post, but technically PHL did have 0.3" in December from the inverted trough, so that kind of knocks it out of that box. At this point I'd be happy to have a trace to tide me over for a couple more weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Good post, but technically PHL did have 0.3" in December from the inverted trough, so that kind of knocks it out of that box. At this point I'd be happy to have a trace to tide me over for a couple more weeks. Whoops. Well, if that ends up being the total come the end of January, it would pretty much fall in line with those two outlier years moreso than the other years with multiple - but small - events. I mainly meant to discern how rare it was to be shutout (or nearly so) in both months. So far this year looks closer to the low-end extremes. Hopefully not to be repeated soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, jwilson said: Whoops. Well, if that ends up being the total come the end of January, it would pretty much fall in line with those two outlier years moreso than the other years with multiple - but small - events. I mainly meant to discern how rare it was to be shutout (or nearly so) in both months. So far this year looks closer to the low-end extremes. Hopefully not to be repeated soon. Understood! I think this year so far is a bit tough because we didn't see an extended snowless period coming. Never really expect it anyway since it is pretty rare. I am still holding out hope for later this month and Feb. though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Overnight eps continue to show marked improvements moving forward and are now very much in line (if not ahead) of the weeklies progression towards a very favorable look as we approach mid month. PAC firehose is finally breaking down on all 3 major ens means and the looks up top irt epo NAO and ao look favorable as does the pna ridging out west. Obviously this decent look in the LR could still crap the bed but is beginning to move closer in time now finally. Unclear also what it all comes down to in regards to real weather here but with tellies lining up favorably should increase our chances for wintry weather as we move towards mid January and beyond. Now that we are back to seeing the light once again on guidance I completely expect guidance to start taking steps back at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Overnight eps continue to show marked improvements moving forward and are now very much in line (if not ahead) of the weeklies progression towards a very favorable look as we approach mid month. PAC firehose is finally breaking down on all 3 major ens means and the looks up top irt epo NAO and ao look favorable as does the pna ridging out west. Obviously this decent look in the LR could still crap the bed but is beginning to move closer in time now finally. Unclear also what it all comes down to in regards to real weather here but with tellies lining up favorably should increase our chances for wintry weather as we move towards mid January and beyond. Now that we are back to seeing the light once again on guidance I completely expect guidance to start taking steps back at 12z DT reposted an article about the triple spliting of the polar vortex (deja vu winter 2010). I know one thing for sure the only thing better than the polar vortex is three polar vortexes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Didnt see this posted here in the Philly forum so here ya go. I'll take my 4'+ and be satisfied with winter. I think I95 can write off the next 6 days or so for all intents and anything meaningful so in essence this is mid Jan thru mid Feb. Drool worthy. This essentially says big time epic flip of all pattern flips on the way whether or not we verify the totals this is spitting out. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Didnt see this posted here in the Philly forum so here ya go. I'll take my 4'+ and be satisfied with winter. This essentially says big time epic flip of all pattern flips on the way whether or not we verify the totals this is spitting out. We take. Yeah, that is a big signal for a pattern shift and essentially the same storm track of things going right underneath of us except we will have cold air around. Beginning to warm up to a rocking february but again, I will believe it once it is inside 10 days. Models have been showing this progression for some time, but then delay it backwards as it hits day 9-10. Let's hope this is the real deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 12z 3k NAM blasts another 1-2+" of rain for much of the 95 corridor tn and tomorrow. Can't catch any relief. Very surprised the delaware hasn't gotten to flood stage or action stage with all these heavy rain events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 LV should continue watching the storm early next week. Could be a sneaky little ice or snow event. Most models are catching on the CAD and keeping the cold air in place longer than before, some even getting the snow line close to the city to start. If I lived in the LV I'd be tracking this one, as it's a decent chance for a decent little event in a terrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 At this point, odds would favor that it should snow in January. Basically, getting shutout would place it in the bottom 5% of winters. Of course, things can theoretically recover in February and March. I don't expect a 2001-02 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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