Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Not all of this is snow is extreme SE PA. Not a bad op possible sneak-attack snow with less than 5 days lead time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 ECM is having none of that New Years time event, not a good sign with it inside 5 days Meanwhile back to a fantasy day 8 ECM storm. Can't believe I am going to finish a cold November-December combo with like 18" rain and zero snow, boggling my mind something serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 24 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM is having none of that New Years time event, not a good sign with it inside 5 days Meanwhile back to a fantasy day 8 ECM storm. Can't believe I am going to finish a cold November-December combo with like 18" rain and zero snow, boggling my mind something serious. Every model has like 4 or 5 waves rolling thru in a 5 day span with the stj hanging out right under the region. Imo it's not a matter of IF it's a matter or which one. Still a few different scenarios but see my post earlier re: the transient neg nao and how we are entering a dip and have had a coastal with each one. Something is going to pop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 ICON just jumped on board with the NAVGEM, FV3, and Euro for the 2nd half of this weekend. Awaiting GFS family... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 18z GFS= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Gotta love how the GFS is juicing up the Friday storm the last couple runs bumping up totals to 2"+ I swear to god another big ass rainstorm and new it would happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Soon to be retired GFS op in a world of it's own attm at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 I really want to laugh at whatever the GFS is doing, but my subconscious tells me it will find a way to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Another model suite another mix of solutions....cutters rule the 18z. Energy in sw comes out and phase takes place as opposed to pieces of the ull ejecting like some models had earlier. Still an interesting window ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON just jumped on board with the NAVGEM, FV3, and Euro for the 2nd half of this weekend. Awaiting GFS family... 18Z FV3 looks like another <looking for snow flakes among the raindrops with a snow lamp> for Sunday night (sounds like this past Sunday night). The Icon (yes I know) and the FV3 do at least have some frozen in the area. Right now the Euro for the 4th looks decent, hope it's correct. Lots to sort out, next week should be clearer by this weekend. At least there's some tracking action for next week. Anyone notice how stingy the CMC has been for snow here, since it's upgrade? It used to be a snow hero for digital snow, not any more. Not sure if the week after next will be warm again prior to the big freeze, or a continuation of next week but a little colder. Changes to a more supportive pattern appear to be happening, which is exciting, actual snow will be even more so! By the way the Squirrels dialed the nut consumption way back after mid November, but they appear to be increasing their intake/storage (somewhat) again the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: 18Z FV3 looks like another <looking for snow flakes among the raindrops with a snow lamp> for Sunday night (sounds like this past Sunday night). The Icon (yes I know) and the FV3 do at least have some frozen in the area. Right now the Euro for the 4th looks decent, hope it's correct. Lots to sort out, next week should be clearer by this weekend. At least there's some tracking action for next week. Anyone notice how stingy the CMC has been for snow here, since it's upgrade? It used to be a snow hero for digital snow, not any more. Not sure if the week after next will be warm again prior to the big freeze, or a continuation of next week but a little colder. Changes to a more supportive pattern appear to be happening, which is exciting, actual snow will be even more so! By the way the Squirrels dialed the nut consumption way back after mid November, but they appear to be increasing their intake/storage (somewhat) again the last few days. Apparently must have been a good upgrade then since weve been teased by other models but with the CMC showing nothing has actually been correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Apparently must have been a good upgrade then since weve been teased by other models but with the CMC showing nothing has actually been correct? Maybe, but it doesn't have to be that good, lol. I don't think it handled November 15th correctly, although I could be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 38 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Maybe, but it doesn't have to be that good, lol. I don't think it handled November 15th correctly, although I could be wrong. I think u r right. Yeah its weird not having that old reliable friend in your corner to lean on during these difficult snowless times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 The New Years threat is toast we have a majority in the models showing high pressure retreat east and a mild surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 20 minutes ago, RedSky said: The New Years threat is toast we have a majority in the models showing high pressure retreat east and a mild surge Patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Patience It's dead Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 18 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's dead Jim Patience. All signs including magic 8-ball point to better times ahead as we approach the 3rd week in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's dead Jim FV3 is apparently the new Lucy. Im so thrilled we are retiring the gfs for this piece of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 I dont know what happened irt guidance over the past 30 hours but something is being picked up on and it isn't good imo. Not sure if this SSW and PV split is the culprit or the NAO ridging is back to looking transient but those steps towards an epic pattern are beginning to step back and be pushed farther out in time on both ens and lr ops. Snowfall means have backed off significantly thru mid Jan and a PAC dominated temp regime is now showing up. But before anyone points out 'well u just said a few days ago how the LR models are struggling ' I completely realize this and know it can change back. I am just discussing the pattern and sudden changes that are showing up. What I dont like admittedly is how the decent looks keep getting delayed. Temps for mid month....oddly the ops have been performing better than the ens means so go figure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I dont know what happened irt guidance over the past 30 hours but something is being picked up on and it isn't good imo. Not sure if this SSW and PV split is the culprit or the NAO ridging is back to looking transient but those steps towards an epic pattern are beginning to step back and be pushed farther out in time on both ens and lr ops. Snowfall means have backed off significantly thru mid Jan and a PAC dominated temp regime is now showing up. But before anyone points out 'well u just said a few days ago how the LR models are struggling ' I completely realize this and know it can change back. I am just discussing the pattern and sudden changes that are showing up. What I dont like admittedly is how the decent looks keep getting delayed. Temps for mid month....oddly the ops have been performing better than the ens means so go figure: Check out the MJO RMM charts. Models completely underdid the amplification into phase 5. We now have to wait for the MJO to cycle into cold phases 8-1-2 but that will take longer due to the extreme amplification into p5. Not only that but we need the SOI to take on a -7 or lower value. That ensures a more El Nino central PAC jet. We're stuck in a La Niña type atmosphere due to the Pacific Ocean temps not fully coupling with the atmosphere. The past couple weeks have been nothing but a disappointment. We'll have to wait until Jan 10th and on, perhaps later, for the MJO to fully cycle around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 31 minutes ago, Newman said: Check out the MJO RMM charts. Models completely underdid the amplification into phase 5. We now have to wait for the MJO to cycle into cold phases 8-1-2 but that will take longer due to the extreme amplification into p5. Not only that but we need the SOI to take on a -7 or lower value. That ensures a more El Nino central PAC jet. We're stuck in a La Niña type atmosphere due to the Pacific Ocean temps not fully coupling with the atmosphere. The past couple weeks have been nothing but a disappointment. We'll have to wait until Jan 10th and on, perhaps later, for the MJO to fully cycle around. Thanks for posting this. You are more knowledgeable on those indices so I appreciate when you contribute your understanding of the SOI etc to the discussions here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Newman said: Check out the MJO RMM charts. Models completely underdid the amplification into phase 5. We now have to wait for the MJO to cycle into cold phases 8-1-2 but that will take longer due to the extreme amplification into p5. Not only that but we need the SOI to take on a -7 or lower value. That ensures a more El Nino central PAC jet. We're stuck in a La Niña type atmosphere due to the Pacific Ocean temps not fully coupling with the atmosphere. The past couple weeks have been nothing but a disappointment. We'll have to wait until Jan 10th and on, perhaps later, for the MJO to fully cycle around. From CPC -Ensembles (1st), Op (2nd) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 I wondered, with the MJO, how much that amplified Phase 5/6 would affect the atmosphere given all the other conditions. Phases 5 & especially 6 are associated with warmth flooding the entire CONUS. Things will (hopefully) look much more favorable once we get into Phase 7, which is a near exact inverse of Phase 5. The question, I guess, is whether the MJO continues that momentum into other favorable phases (8 and 1) or dies into the COD. The latter option is probably better than what it is currently doing. Still, I wonder if that much amplification would be too much of a good thing? We've already seen one suppressed system this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, jwilson said: I wondered, with the MJO, how much that amplified Phase 5/6 would affect the atmosphere given all the other conditions. Phases 5 & especially 6 are associated with warmth flooding the entire CONUS. Things will (hopefully) look much more favorable once we get into Phase 7, which is a near exact inverse of Phase 5. The question, I guess, is whether the MJO continues that momentum into other favorable phases (8 and 1) or dies into the COD. The latter option is probably better than what it is currently doing. Still, I wonder if that much amplification would be too much of a good thing? We've already seen one suppressed system this year. Hopefully it moves through phase 6 as quickly as shown. Not sure how an amplified phase 7 manifests. Eta: cooler yes, but maybe dry as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 60F when the ball drops? 60s on NYD with 70s approaching S VA and mid 70s to near 80 in E NC? Maybe we can put a Wiggum Rule into effect? Tho as I said before generally January 6-Feb 7 will yield the 94% success rate. Drops off significantly (exponentially) on either side of those dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Yeah pretty sure I have never witnessed such a drastic change for the modeled temperatures in only 24 hours for the mid range and just two days ago this was an ECM snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Yeah pretty sure I have never witnessed such a drastic change for the modeled temperatures in only 24 hours for the mid range and just two days ago this was an ECM snow event. Right? How we can put faith in anything this year is beyond me whether good, bad, or indifferent. Purely speculation. I personally dont ever recall anything so flip floppy. It was LR struggles for a while then MR now it's the short range. I can only assume the current SSW is what is causing this? I had read this strat warming is entering unchartered territory and historic levels of warming given the time of season. Doing a heck of a number on the MJO as well. Wild stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Alas....the GFS op has 2 chances for anafront wet snow TV. Those usually pan out nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 16 hours ago, KamuSnow said: Maybe, but it doesn't have to be that good, lol. I don't think it handled November 15th correctly, although I could be wrong. CMC has 2 wet snowflakes for us in LR this run so that's good I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 6z Euro shows NW Chesco rip off zone with the upcoming rain event. I am rooting on another 2.90" to get us to a nice round 80" of precip for the year. Looking at latest guidance probably not gonna be enough between this event and the NY Eve event to push us over the top... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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