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December 1 Severe Weather

IllinoisWedges

By IllinoisWedges,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted

once again 

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
747 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 815 PM CST.  
      
* AT 747 PM CST, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLFAX,  
  OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIRBURY, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO

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Indystorm

Indystorm

Posted
Posted

Storms are beginning to form now in eastern Illinois near Danville ahead of the main tornado producing cells and in sw IN.  Central IN is still in the marginal risk of svr for overnight per SPC but I can only hope this would be for straight line wind or hail even though helicity is still high in the area.

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted
Just now, Indystorm said:

Storms are beginning to form now in eastern Illinois near Danville ahead of the main tornado producing cells and in sw IN.  Central IN is still in the marginal risk of svr for overnight per SPC but I can only hope this would be for straight line wind or hail even though helicity is still high in the area.

yep..temps upper 50's ...dews low-mid 50's less unstable then this afternoon but why are new cells developing at this time of day??

many times when you have a strong system it will shear the storms apart with weak instability in an airmass like this even with colder 500mb temps

 

there was something different about this system .....the airmass this afternoon, although only in the upper 50's.. felt more "sultry" then it should have....and you could tell the low levels. were decently unstable because of the "bubbly" CU overhead

 

 

 

 

 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Seems like widespread damage, but not high end...however, as you said before it is dark and hard to tell.

Based on the limited amount I saw, I'd feel fairly confident that it was at least an EF2 tornado.  Could very well not be seeing the most heavily damaged area yet though.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Seems like widespread damage, but not high end...however, as you said before it is dark and hard to tell.

A bit premature with this, especially considering the harder hit areas were hit right around sunset, we really don't have a great scope of what has been done.

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted

This was a classic I-72 outbreak... as I have mentioned over the years the area along I-72 and a little north into the Southern peoria metro (Tazewell. Fulton county) has historically been a Tornado hotspot for some reason  ... here is an older map showing  the local maxima

 

two of the strongest supercells of the 4-19-1996 out break hit this area including one that basically followed I-72 EF3 Decatur/..People forget Decatur was also hit by a high end F1 the day before that!

 

1024px-Tornado_Alley.svg.png

 

 

 

il_tornadoes_19501.png

If I recall correctly one of the May 1995 outbreaks was a "dryslot" punch clearing out the warm sector similar to this outbreak..but there was been many examples when that happened and nothing happened..for some reason there was something extra here

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

interesting note: on the SPC web page, the state of Oklahoma had 22 tornadoes from Jan 1st to Nov. 15th, and I suppose add (a big) +1 to that considering Friday night. Illinois had 22 preliminary tornado reports yesterday. Even if roughly 15-17 are confirmed out of this, Illinois still had about 3/4 as much tornadoes in one day, compared to all year in Oklahoma.

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

Gotta wonder what this exact setup would've done with spring time thermodynamics at the surface. Not even necessarily "prime" spring time thermodynamics, I'm talking like 67-71 T/60-64 Td here. 00z ILX sounding had a classic sickle shaped hodograph with over 400 m2/s2 ESRH, with most of that concentrated in the 0-1 km layer, not to mention 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE. Pretty solid mid level lapse rates ~7.5 C/km as well thanks to 500 mb temps below -20˚C, that was the key here.

Should note that none of the global models had surface winds even close to that strongly backed over the area.

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hlcater

hlcater

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, andyhb said:

Gotta wonder what this exact setup would've done with spring time thermodynamics at the surface. Not even necessarily "prime" spring time thermodynamics, I'm talking like 67-71 T/60-64 Td here. 00z ILX sounding had a classic sickle shaped hodograph with over 400 m2/s2 ESRH, with most of that concentrated in the 0-1 km layer, not to mention 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE. Pretty solid mid level lapse rates ~7.5 C/km as well thanks to 500 mb temps below -20˚C, that was the key here.

Should note that none of the global models had surface winds even close to that strongly backed over the area.

CAMs underestimated the backing as well. They only caught up after the event was underway.

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted

STL has 9 so far, ILX 7 and DVN 2 in LSR's  we could "break" the DEC record of 21 since ILX plans more surveys today..of course if we had the same radars. spotter/chaser network, and surveys back in 1957 that count would have been higher

 

edit: looks like one of  the STL/ILX surveys overlap and may be the same tornado

 

 

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-  
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031745-  
  
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO  
543 AM CST MON DEC 3 2018  
  
CORRECTION TO THE EARLIER STATEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF THE DATES AND   
TIMES AND UNKNOWNS.  
   
..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 12/01/2018 TORNADO EVENT  
  
THREE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED A TOTAL OF NINE SHORT-   
LIVED TORNADOES WITHIN THE NWS ST. LOUIS COUNTY WARNING AREA   
DURING THE AFTERNOON OF DECEMBER 1ST. THE AREAS IMPACTED WERE ALL   
IN ILLINOIS AND INCLUDE PIKE COUNTY, SOUTHEASTERN MACOUPIN COUNTY,  
AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY (IL). HERE ARE PRELIMINARY DETAILS  
ON THE NINE TORNADOES:  
   
PLEASANT HILL 1  
  
RATING:                 EF0  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    85 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.11 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   25.0 YARDS  
FATALITIES: 0  
INJURIES: 0  
  
START DATE:             12/01/2018  
START TIME:             01:54 PM CST  
START LOCATION:         1 E PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL  
START LAT/LON:          39.4439 / -90.851  
  
END DATE:               12/01/2018  
END TIME:               01:54 PM CST  
END LOCATION:           1 E PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL  
END LAT/LON:            39.4455 / -90.8512  
  
   
PLEASANT HILL 2  
  
RATING:                 EF1  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    98 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.08 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   25.0 YARDS  
FATALITIES:             0  
INJURIES:               0  
  
START DATE:             12/01/2018  
START TIME:             01:56 PM CST  
START LOCATION:         2 NE PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL  
START LAT/LON:          39.4584 / -90.8457  
  
END DATE:               12/01/2018  
END TIME:               01:56 PM CST  
END LOCATION:           2 NE PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL  
END LAT/LON:            39.4593 / -90.8447  
  
   
PLEASANT HILL 3  
  
RATING:                 EF0  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    85 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.03 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   25.0 YARDS  
FATALITIES:             0  
INJURIES:               0  
  
START DATE:             12/01/2018  
START TIME:             01:58 PM CST  
START LOCATION:         2 NE PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL  
START LAT/LON:          39.4661 / -90.8404  
  
END DATE:               12/01/2018  
END TIME:               01:58 PM CST  
END LOCATION:           2 NE PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL  
END LAT/LON:            39.4664 / -90.8406  
  
   
VALLEY CITY  
  
RATING:                 EF1  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    110 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.6 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   110 YARDS  
FATALITIES: 0  
INJURIES: 0  
  
START DATE:             12/01/2018  
START TIME:             02:40 PM CST  
START LOCATION:         1 NNW VALLEY CITY / PIKE COUNTY / IL  
START LAT/LON:          39.7272 / -90.6537  
  
END DATE:               12/01/2018  
END TIME:               02:42 PM CST  
END LOCATION:           1 NNW VALLEY CITY / PIKE COUNTY / IL  
END LAT/LON:            39.7186 / -90.6555  
  
   
STAUNTON  
  
RATING:                 EF1  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    110 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  1.39 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   50.0 YARDS  
FATALITIES:             0  
INJURIES:               0  
  
START DATE:             12/01/2018  
START TIME:             03:59 PM CST  
START LOCATION:         2 NE STAUNTON / MACOUPIN COUNTY / IL  
START LAT/LON:          39.031 / -89.7523  
  
END DATE:               12/01/2018  
END TIME:               04:01 PM CST  
END LOCATION:           2 S MOUNT OLIVE / MACOUPIN COUNTY / IL  
END LAT/LON:            39.0465 / -89.7359  
  
   
RAYMOND  
  
RATING:                 EF1  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    100 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  8.02 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   75.0 YARDS  
FATALITIES:             0  
INJURIES:               0  
  
START DATE:             12/01/2018  
START TIME:             04:09 PM CST  
START LOCATION:         3 WSW HONEY BEND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL  
START LAT/LON:          39.2315 / -89.6819  
  
END DATE:               12/01/2018  
END TIME:               04:21 PM CST  
END LOCATION:           2 WNW RAYMOND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL  
END LAT/LON:            39.3352 / -89.6143  
  
   
LITCHFIELD-BUTLER  
  
RATING:                 EF2  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    115 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  7.93 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   100.0 YARDS  
FATALITIES:             0  
INJURIES:               0  
  
START DATE:             12/01/2018  
START TIME:             04:16 PM CST  
START LOCATION:         2 SE LITCHFIELD / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL  
START LAT/LON:          39.1522 / -89.6324  
  
END DATE:               12/01/2018  
END TIME:               04:29 PM CST  
END LOCATION:           3 NW BUTLER / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL  
END LAT/LON:            39.2361 / -89.5663  
  
   
BLUE GRASS CREEK SOUTHEAST OF RAYMOND  
  
RATING:                 EF1  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    100 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  2.0 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   50.0 YARDS  
FATALITIES:             0  
INJURIES:               0  
  
START DATE:             12/01/2018  
START TIME:             04:32 PM CST  
START LOCATION:         4 E HONEY BEND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL  
START LAT/LON:          39.2584 / -89.5486  
  
END DATE:               12/01/2018  
END TIME:               04:36 PM CST  
END LOCATION:           3 SE RAYMOND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL  
END LAT/LON:            39.2832 / -89.5304  
  
   
.EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HARVEL  
  
RATING:                 EF0  
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    80 MPH  
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.06 MILES  
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   25.0 YARDS  
FATALITIES: 0  
INJURIES: 0  
  
START DATE:             12/01/2018  
START TIME:             04:47 PM CST  
START LOCATION:         4 E HARVEL / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL  
START LAT/LON:          39.348 / -89.4577  
  
END DATE:               12/01/2018  
END TIME:               04:47 PM CST  
END LOCATION:           3 SE MORRISONVILLE / CHRISTIAN COUNTY/  
END LAT/LON:            39.3866 / -89.4278  
  
SURVEY SUMMARY:  
A WEAK EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE JUNCTION OF E 13TH ROAD  
AND E 000 NORTH ROAD, JUST SOUTH OF THE MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND  
CHRISTIAN COUNTY LINE. THE TORNADO DAMAGED A FARM STORAGE  
BUILDING, BEFORE ENTERING CHRISTIAN COUNTY. FOR MORE DETAILS ON  
THE COMPLETE PATH, PLEASE CONSULT THE NWS LINCOLN IL FORECAST   
OFFICE.   
  
EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE  
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:  
  
EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH  
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH  
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH  
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH  
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH  
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH  

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

The 1957 outbreak had 19 F2+ tornadoes in Illinois.  That is really not even believable out of a total of 21... some may have been overrated and/or weaker ones missed. 

Hard to compare numbers from different eras.  There's something to be said for the severity of 1957 even if a number of them were overrated.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Taylorville has been rated EF3. 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
400 PM CST Mon Dec 3 2018

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 12/01/18 TORNADO EVENT #6...

.UPDATE...This is the sixth damage survey report from the NWS
Lincoln office for the December 1 tornado event in west central
and central Illinois.

.TORNADO #13 Taylorville, IL...

Rating:                 EF-3
Estimated peak wind:    155 mph
Path length /Statute/:  11.2 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   880 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             Dec 01 2018
Start time:             502 pm CST
Start location:         3.8 E Morrisonville / Christian County IL
Start Lat/Lon:          39.4218 / -89.3883

End date:               Dec 01 2018
End time:               523 pm CST
End location:           0.8 NNW Taylorville / Christian County IL
End_lat/lon:            39.5649 / -89.2984

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale Classifies
Tornadoes into the following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

$$
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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The 1957 outbreak had 19 F2+ tornadoes in Illinois.  That is really not even believable out of a total of 21... some may have been overrated and/or weaker ones missed. 

Hard to compare numbers from different eras.  There's something to be said for the severity of 1957 even if a number of them were overrated.

I would say both are the case in this instance.

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