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December 1 Severe Weather


IllinoisWedges

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3 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Good shear and helicity in the tor warned area up the Illinois river.  I would be concerned a bit farther south ne of St. Louis up the I-70 corridor where surface cape is higher as storms that form along the MS river gradually move into that part of Illinois as we progress through the evening.

Good call...

 DISCUSSION...Supporting mid-level forcing for ascent (as inferred
   from water vapor imagery) continues to gradually pivot northeastward
   through northern/central Illinois.  The southern periphery of this
   forcing appears likely to remain roughly along/north of the I-70
   corridor, and provide the southern limit to ongoing and subsequent
   thunderstorm initiation.  
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
713 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 745 PM CST.  
  
* AT 712 PM CST, A CONFIRMED DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LE   
  ROY, OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
721 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018  
  
ILC113-020145-  
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-181202T0145Z/  
MCLEAN-  
721 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY...  
      
AT 720 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS   
LOCATED NORTH OF LE ROY, OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON,   
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
         BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION   
         IS POSSIBLE.  
  
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  ELLSWORTH AROUND 728 PM CST.  

 

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Kinda of like  a quasi plains dry line setup.  Most of the tornadic storms are forming right on the nose of the low level moisture plume.  Better dynamics to the south some all day.  Just thought it was interesting from my feeble perspective lol.  Current warned storm right on the nose again...

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Just some historical perspective in case anyone was curious.  Tornadoes happen in Illinois in December about once every 4 or 5 years.  The benchmark outbreak is 12-18-1957.  This one isn't on that level but it appears like it could end up being one of the more significant December outbreaks for the state.

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