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NNE Winter Thread


wxmanmitch
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It was really nice today to be able to walk around the mostly snow-free property.  Most of the woods are still snow covered but my SW exposure is giving the local deer a Christmas present.  They have been out there eating 24/7 since our recent torch.  Nice to see them able to get some forage after about 6 weeks of snow cover.

deer.jpg

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So tonight I had a first experience of the mystery precip. On my way back from Bethlehem, I noticed flakeage in the headlights starting about 2 miles from Bretton Woods. Very very fine, doesn't really accumulate. It's pretty warm, 8 F, so I don't think it's angel dust but it's also not upslope - there is not a cloud in the sky. Snow guns at the resort are cranking but it seems too far for that to travel 2 miles with no wind? No idea. 

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12 hours ago, alex said:

So tonight I had a first experience of the mystery precip. On my way back from Bethlehem, I noticed flakeage in the headlights starting about 2 miles from Bretton Woods. Very very fine, doesn't really accumulate. It's pretty warm, 8 F, so I don't think it's angel dust but it's also not upslope - there is not a cloud in the sky. Snow guns at the resort are cranking but it seems too far for that to travel 2 miles with no wind? No idea. 

Maybe just cold enough for a little diamond dust. -13C seems a little warm for that, but I guess it’s possible with the right nuclei...especially if there are a lot of smoke related particulates trapped below the inversion on a rad cooling night.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Maybe just cold enough for a little diamond dust. -13C seems a little warm for that, but I guess it’s possible with the right nuclei...especially if there are a lot of smoke related particulates trapped below the inversion on a rad cooling night.

Ah, interesting. I thought it had to be well below 0 for it. Cool to know

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Just now, alex said:

Ah, interesting. I thought it had to be well below 0 for it. Cool to know

Maybe Chris could give more on it and the possibility. The cleaner your air generally the colder you have to get to produce all ice crystals, but different cloud condensation nuclei perform in different ways.

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15 hours ago, alex said:

So tonight I had a first experience of the mystery precip. On my way back from Bethlehem, I noticed flakeage in the headlights starting about 2 miles from Bretton Woods. Very very fine, doesn't really accumulate. It's pretty warm, 8 F, so I don't think it's angel dust but it's also not upslope - there is not a cloud in the sky. Snow guns at the resort are cranking but it seems too far for that to travel 2 miles with no wind? No idea. 

:lol: 

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From the Jewish poster on the NNE forum I wish all you a Merry Christmas!

32F  with a few mood flakes falling

PS  Alex,  about the mystery precip.  Could the snow guns with the right conditions carry the tiny snow molecules a couple of miles in your direction?  I'm only guessing but usually when they make snow you have a W, NW,NNE flow.  Could you have had light E or SE winds to carry anything from the slopes to you???

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Although the snow start to fall here a bit before noon, it wasn’t until about 1:00 P.M. or so that it really started to get going substantially with respect to accumulation.  The intensity hasn’t been outrageous, but with big flakes at times, we’d picked up about an inch here as of 2:00 P.M.  Looking at some of the short term models, it seemed like the snow was going to fire up a bit later this afternoon, but that may be from the potential inverted trough.  I’ll make some observations at some point this afternoon to see where things stand.

The BTV NWS did update their discussion on the current shortwave to note accumulations pushing a bit northward, and there is also a Special Weather Statement in effect for parts of the area to address the snowfall:

24DEC18A.jpg

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 1246 PM EST Monday...NWS employee reports 1.0 a couple miles north of Burlington and 0.5 here at the airport. Have updated to increase snowfall amounts here locally to better match what has already fallen. Otherwise, likely to cat pops look reasonable with accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible, with localized amounts up to 3 inches possible. Outside of the axis of snowfall, only a dusting of snow is anticipated.

Always a positive when you have to expand likely pops and increase snow accumulations further north, especially a day before Christmas. Radar/obs show light snow with embedded pockets of moderate snow is occurring from MSS to PBG to BTV to MPV line. Have increased pops to likely/cat in this area with snowfall of a dusting to 2 inches possible. Based on web cams around Tupper Lake already showing a couple inches, would not be surprised a few locations in the western dacks/southern St Lawrence county get 3 or 4 inches by later this evening. Water vapor shows potent short wave energy with embedded ribbon of mid level moisture approaching the SLV. Have noted in soundings good rh in the snow growth region, even as further north as BTV, so anticipate a 3 to 5 hour window of light snow with periods of sfc vis down to 1 sm, with a an inch or so accumulation possible. Otherwise, lift/moisture quickly exits our cwa by 00z this evening, with precip ending.

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

From the Jewish poster on the NNE forum I wish all you a Merry Christmas!

32F  with a few mood flakes falling

PS  Alex,  about the mystery precip.  Could the snow guns with the right conditions carry the tiny snow molecules a couple of miles in your direction?  I'm only guessing but usually when they make snow you have a W, NW,NNE flow.  Could you have had light E or SE winds to carry anything from the slopes to you???

Nah, I don't think so. If it were just around my house, maybe - but it starts a couple of miles down, that seems way too far, especially given prevailing wind directions as you say

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I saw that the near term in the BTV NWS forecast discussion was updated around 3 PM to discuss the latest observations and trends:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 302 PM EST Monday...Interesting day across the North Country as synoptic and mesoscale features have resulted in an over- achieving snowfall for portions of the North Country. 12z data, especially the HRRR/RAP trended north with axis of steadier snow and associated qpf with potent shortwave energy. This resulted in a 1 to 3 inch snowfall from mss to slk to btv areas, while limited precip occurred north or south of this line. Web cams show 3 to 4 inches near the Tupper Lake area. Locally here in BTV, strong blocked flow with froude numbers between 0.30 to 0.50 helped to enhance low level convergence and produce localized enhanced snowfall, along upstream of the Green Mtns. NWS employee reported 2 inches a couple miles north of the City of Burlington and 1.3 here at the airport thru 20z. The final element which has helped to produce a white christmas here in the BTV area is good deep layer moisture thru the favorable snow growth region, producing snow ratios of 20/30 to 1. Water vapor continues to show shortwave and best mid level moisture moving across the northern Dacks attm, which will pivot over the central CPV, before lifting across eastern New England overnight. So anticipate another few hours of light snow thru this evening, especially cpv and points east. Areas of slippery travel likely this evening, especially on untreated road surfaces.

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Skied in the morning at Lincoln peak.  Conditions were surprisingly good on the groomers.  It started snowing at noon and the intensity, such that it was, picked up rather quickly.  Put down about 2” above 3000’ by 2pm.  There was about an inch at base and a little more at 1500’ at 4.  Nice little surprise.  Made the skiing a lot better.  Even ventured on to natural ungroomed terrain.  That was good.  Off piste not so much.

merry Xmas from the other Jew.

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Event totals: 2.2” Snow/0.07” L.E.

 

Smaller flakes in this second part of the storm here have definitely made for denser snow accumulation – the evening snowfall density was twice that of the afternoon snow.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 22.1 F

Sky:  Light Snow (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

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Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

I found 0.3” of unanticipated snow on the boards this morning, and since there was no mention of it in the BTV NWS forecast discussion, I’m just putting it down as diamond dust from the cold air.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3% H2O

Temperature: 10.1 F

Sky:  Mostly Clear

Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

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Posted in banter but probably better here...

Nice light snow falling, wasn't expecting it.

Half inch of absolute dust on the car at the mountain so far.  Now every time I clean these light amounts off my car I picture Dendrite in a fit of rage annoyed his car is covered again.  

Decent little pulse of moisture with the great snow growth temps.

IMG_1688.GIF.1f032ff3a42367d2800b42d09cd3144f.GIF

 
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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice light snow falling, wasn't expecting it.

Half inch of absolute dust on the car at the mountain so far.  Now every time I clean these light amounts off my car I picture Dendrite in a fit of rage annoyed his car is covered again.  

Decent little pulse of moisture with the great snow growth temps.

Yeah, definitely some steady snow and great flake size here at the house – we were outside doing holiday pictures and the scene was great.  We’ll see how much we get with the continued push of moisture, but we’ve had about a half inch thus far:

26DEC18A.gif

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