J.Spin Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 5:35 AM, ChasingFlakes said: That's good news, I'd love to checkout Brandon's Gap. Ifs awesome what RASTA is doing there. I need to get a splitboard setup for next season. Yeah, RASTA has done some fantastic work there with the Brandon Gap Backcountry Recreation Area – they’ve got a fairly high-elevation, snowy spot, with north-facing terrain, easy road access, ample parking, well-signed trails, dedicated skin tracks, nice maintained glades… the list really goes on and on, and it honestly feels like a model for what people can do with respect to organized backcountry skiing areas. There were probably a dozen vehicles at the Bear Brook Bowl Access Point when we arrived for our Saturday outing, and I didn’t get a chance to check out the license plates at that point, but at the end of our tour we did get to talk to some of the people in the cars near ours. There were two cars right by us that were both from out of state. They were all together, and they were next heading off to dinner right there in Rochester. If that’s not a perfect example of the economic benefits that RASTA’s work is bringing to the area, I don’t know what is. I’ve actually only hit a couple of the lines at this point from the Bear Brook Bowl Access and Trailhead, and there’s still so much more to explore at that area. On top of that, there’s a whole different area with its own access point and additional terrain off to the west. I’ll never forget seeing the stack of snow atop the trail map on my very first trip to the area last March though – as a skier, you see powder sitting up stacked like that without wind and it’s a very good sign. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 BTV's Lahiff sounding optimistic. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 416 AM EST Friday...Aforementioned surface high pressure continues to dominate the North Country`s weather for Monday and Monday night with some clearing expected as an upper ridge builds over the Great Lakes and Northeast. Ridge amplification persists into Tuesday ahead of our next system which could be quite complex featuring a double-barrel low moving through the Northeast late Tuesday through Wednesday. Primary low pressure which develops in the lee of the Rockies Monday afternoon will take a leisurely track through the Tennessee Valley Monday night northeast through the Ohio Valley Tuesday and eventually through the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. This track would be typical for a surge of warm air advection aloft with mixed precipitation possible, but all available guidance is in surprisingly excellent agreement showing secondary low pressure forming off the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday evening tracking northeast inside the benchmark Tuesday night. This coastal development helps to keep a colder northerly flow across the forecast area maintaining snow as the dominant ptype, something we can all rejoice about after several miserable bouts of mixed precip and ice. While early in the game to nail down snow amounts, model consensus on storm total QPF is in the 0.5-0.75" range which even at low snow ratios would yield a decent snowfall. The system is fairly progressive so by Wednesday night post cold front passage any backside bonus will be short-lived and confined to the higher peaks with weak high pressure building in for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Looks like the front is through here. Bright blue skies and plummeting dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 hours ago, J.Spin said: I’ll never forget seeing the stack of snow atop the trail map on my very first trip to the area last March though – as a skier, you see powder sitting up stacked like that without wind and it’s a very good sign. Thanks again for taking the time to provide all that awesome information, I'll be sure to save this post to reference when I am back up there. I love that Vermont is finally embracing the backcountry scene, nothing beats the variety of terrain and foliage found in the green mountains. That trail map picture reminds me of one I took in Colorado in 2013. Although the one i took kind of looks like Conan O'Briens hair. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Snowshower just rolled through. Winter is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 8:32 PM, Hitman said: Nice shoutout to pf from Atkinson on today’s stoke exchange. Heh thanks for the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 I hope my phone is right for next week lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.03” L.E. We had spits of snow at various times last night, but even down here there were some winds that kept it from accumulating very well. Eventually we did hit a tenth of an inch of accumulation though to add to the event. It was a bit tough parsing out the precipitation from Winter Storm Lucian this week due to the way it split into that predecessor impulse as it got into our part of the country. Initially I had it as one large system from the 6th through the 9th, but after incorporating the information from the BTV NWS forecast discussions, and witnessing the Thursday lull, they were split into that predecessor system on the 6th and 7th, with formal Winter Storm Lucian on the 8th. It’s also interesting to note that for our area, the smaller, predecessor system brought the more significant precipitation (0.3” snow/0.51” L.E.), while Winter Storm Lucian itself basically skipped right through this area with the totals at the top of this post (0.1” snow/0.03”) L.E. The Winter Storm Lucian page has now progressed to the recap stage, so the storm’s photo gallery is in place. They’ve got almost 100 photographs collected for this one, with some awesome shots from the big totals out in the Sierra, as well as unique images from the Seattle area getting affected by one of their infrequent snow events. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 15.8 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 21.5 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 7am Mount Washington -13F 116mph gusting to 148mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Checked out the Connecticut Lakes today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Things really seemed to escalate quickly overnight with respect to Winter Storm Maya. The first signs were early this morning when I was watching The Weather Channel and saw projected accumulations of 12”+ in NNE. Then I stopped in at the BTV NWS homepage and saw that Winter Storm Watches were already posted. Presumably they’ve got a decent amount of confidence that we’re going to see some impacts. The latest advisory and projected accumulations maps are below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 My phone is saying 14” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Winter Storm Warnings are now up for all of the BTV NWS forecast area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just checking in. Snowcover around here sure needs a refresher. Hard packed icy surface. About 5" otg in sunny locations, much more on north slopes and woods. I can walk across my field without falling in. While I'm 100% snow covered here the ground is mostly bare in Concord 35 miles south. So it cuts right through Dendriteland. Looking to add 8-12" on Tuesday night. Seems like most all the synoptic storms fall during at night this year. Then a warmer storm late week. West and NW US looks to get pummeled this week. Big storm very far south hitting Hawaii with gales and huge surf. Lots of weather to watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 What I wouldnt give to own property at mammoth mountain. Some day ill be there for one of those epic storm cycles. The past storm cycle dropped 7-10feet, can you even imagine??? Now they are in the middle of another storm cycle, with more feet on the way. I think i heard something about a big Kona Low and huge waves affecting HI? Maybe they get some snow too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Here’s the latest projected accumulations map for Winter Storm Maya from the BTV NWS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Just checking in. Snowcover around here sure needs a refresher. Hard packed icy surface. About 5" otg in sunny locations, much more on north slopes and woods. I can walk across my field without falling in. While I'm 100% snow covered here the ground is mostly bare in Concord 35 miles south. So it cuts right through Dendriteland. Looking to add 8-12" on Tuesday night. Seems like most all the synoptic storms fall during at night this year. Then a warmer storm late week. West and NW US looks to get pummeled this week. Big storm very far south hitting Hawaii with gales and huge surf. Lots of weather to watch.. Jeezus im so slow...how do you know mike@tenney? Lol...ive been reading your forecasts this entire season and not connecting the dots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 50 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Jeezus im so slow...how do you know mike@tenney? Lol...ive been reading your forecasts this entire season and not connecting the dots Diane, I use to ski at Tenney all the time. Then they closed down. Since I live only a few miles away I follow the news pretty closely. A good friend of mine got a job there last year and worked at the mountain all off season clearing trails, working on the lodge etc. I would comment on their FB page and he told Mike I am the local "weather guy". Mike messaged me and said he would love weather info as the mountain is financially struggling and doesn't have a forecast service. So I just post on their page from time to time. I have never meet Mike in person so don't have any direct ties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Some local neat snowfall info. I have 2 weather friends locally. We all live within 3 miles of each other. One lives in Bristol NH at around 500 feet and is a Coop observer. He has recorded 56" of snow this season. I am at 1100 feet and I have 68". My other friend and his wife at at 1600 feet and recorded 87". They are pretty religious in their measuring. Just shows you how the littlest bit of elevation within the same area makes such a big difference, at least in this season since we have had several elevation events. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Diane, I use to ski at Tenney all the time. Then they closed down. Since I live only a few miles away I follow the news pretty closely. A good friend of mine got a job there last year and worked at the mountain all off season clearing trails, working on the lodge etc. I would comment on their FB page and he told Mike I am the local "weather guy". Mike messaged me and said he would love weather info as the mountain is financially struggling and doesn't have a forecast service. So I just post on their page from time to time. I have never meet Mike in person so don't have any direct ties. That is really kind of you. A bummer to hear of the financial struggles, but I guess that was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Here is the latest from BTV 000 WWUS41 KBTV 110755 WSWBTV URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 255 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001-002-005-006-008>012-016>019-112100- /O.CON.KBTV.WS.W.0004.190212T1800Z-190213T2100Z/ Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Washington- Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Windsor-Eastern Franklin- Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of Massena, Malone, Plattsburgh, Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Lake Placid, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur, Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Burlington, Johnson, Stowe, Montpelier, Middlebury, Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Rutland, Springfield, White River Junction, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 255 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snowfall expected. Snow mixes with sleet across portions of northern New York and south-central Vermont. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 12 inches expected with localized amounts up to 15 inches over northern New York and southeast upslope sections of the Green Mountains in Vermont. * WHERE...Northern, central, and south-central Vermont, as well as northern New York. * WHEN...From 1 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region from southwest to northeast between 1 PM and 5 PM on Tuesday and quickly become locally heavy at times by Tuesday evening. A mix with sleet is expected Tuesday night, mainly across the northern Adirondacks and south-central Vermont. Snow will gradually taper off by Wednesday afternoon. Snow covered roadways and visibility reduced to one-half mile at times will create hazardous driving conditions, especially during the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please allow extra time if travel is necessary. && $$ VTZ003-004-007-112100- /O.CON.KBTV.WS.W.0004.190212T2100Z-190213T2100Z/ Orleans-Essex-Caledonia- Including the cities of Newport, Island Pond, and St. Johnsbury 255 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snowfall expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches expected. * WHERE...Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. * WHEN...From 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will develop across northeastern Vermont during the early evening hours on Tuesday, and become heavy at times during Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Snow covered roadways and visibility reduced to one-half mile at times will create hazardous driving conditions, especially Tuesday night and for the Wednesday morning commute. Snow will gradually taper off Wednesday afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please allow extra time if travel is necessary. && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I’ve got the latest advisory and projected accumulations maps from the BTV NWS below. On the advisories map, there’s been an expansion of Winter Storm Warnings off into most of Upstate New York, and New Hampshire is still under Winter Storm Watches off to the east. The projected accumulations map looks to be the same one that mreaves posted earlier, with some areas in the 12-18” range along the spine, and the anticipated shadowing of the western slopes. Our current point forecast suggests accumulations of 8-16” through Wednesday, with a bit more possible Wednesday night. That might be a bit on the high side compared to the map, but our site is right among the 8-12”/12-18” zones, and we’ll see how projections get tweaked with the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 59 minutes ago, mreaves said: Here is the latest from BTV * WHAT...Heavy snowfall expected. Snow mixes with sleet across portions of northern New York and south-central Vermont. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 12 inches expected with localized amounts up to 15 inches over northern New York and southeast upslope sections of the Green Mountains in Vermont. Thanks for adding the text update. I think those areas of 12-18” along the spine in the projected accumulations map are a bit out of synch with the text above, but perhaps those are just for the higher elevations. They do have some of that shading scattered elsewhere around VT too. I guess some of the algorithms are tipping things into that next tier in various spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Think near 0% chance of 10" here as the map says. 4-6" then some pellets is usually how these play out here. Was out of town all week and got back late Friday night, man what a pack decimation in the valleys from west of the spine to Albany last week. Even piles were practically wiped out near Bennington and Eastern NY areas like Hoosick. Have some open grass patches here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 The updated advisory and projected accumulations maps from the BTV NWS below. There really aren’t any major changes, but Winter Storm Warnings now cover all of the area aside from the southern half of New Hampshire. The projected accumulations map seems to have had just some tweaks here and there. Our point forecast indicates accumulations of 8-16” through Wednesday as it did earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I like a widespread 8-12" on 0.8-1.2" water. I could actually even see ratios dipping under 10:1 too... I think it'll be a great QPF addition to the snowpack to try and hide the ice layers, but the actual snow amounts may not be quite into "major snowstorm" territory (widespread 12+). Whenever we get these warm layers aloft, especially tickling -2C to 0C in the 700-800mb layer, the snow growth suffers. I could see a period of 8:1 ratio granular snow for a time, too. However, from a ski standpoint, the inches of snow shouldn't matter as much in this one as much as the liquid equivalent because that's what's going to give us buffer over the ice layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 39 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I like a widespread 8-12" on 0.8-1.2" water. I could actually even see ratios dipping under 10:1 too... I think it'll be a great QPF addition to the snowpack to try and hide the ice layers, but the actual snow amounts may not be quite into "major snowstorm" territory (widespread 12+). Whenever we get these warm layers aloft, especially tickling -2C to 0C in the 700-800mb layer, the snow growth suffers. I could see a period of 8:1 ratio granular snow for a time, too. However, from a ski standpoint, the inches of snow shouldn't matter as much in this one as much as the liquid equivalent because that's what's going to give us buffer over the ice layer. Same for snowmobiling. I wouldn't even mind a little sleet to really beef it up. Most importantly though is the changing nature for whatever happens Friday/Saturday. I'm hard pressed to remember this much ice. I'm 215 lbs and can stand on the pack without really putting much of a dent in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Well, these should be the last forecast updates for upcoming Winter Storm Maya. The BTV NWS advisory map is now Winter Storm Warnings across the board, and projected accumulations look to be about 4-12” depending on shadowing. Projected accumulations in our point forecast sum to 6-14” through Wednesday night, which seems pretty in synch with the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 You can see from the map JSpin psoted how BTV clearly highlights the SE downsloping with the 5/6" totals in RUT and Middlebury, but ALY down in SVT is not. I like the BTV map, but extended down into SVT--4-6" from Manchester down through DDH--so pretty much cut those totals in half in SVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.25” L.E. There was perhaps an inch of snow when I was heading out from Burlington through the western slopes toward Waterbury. I was thankful because while it was snowing at a decent clip, there was generally blacktop on I-89 for both lanes, although the areas between the lanes and the edges of the lanes were snow covered. Route 2 was mostly snow covered though, and once I got home the snow accumulations seemed a bit more robust with a couple of inches down. Flakes have been fairly small, and the snow is definitely dense, coming in at 13.2% H2O for this first part of the storm with a quarter inch of liquid in just the two inches. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.9 inches New Liquid: 0.25 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 7.6 Snow Density: 13.2% H2O Temperature: 16.5 F Sky: Snow (1 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 23.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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