NNE Winter Thread

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Jesus you guys are cleaning up. Climo catching up to some lousy starts last several years.

It has definitely wanted to snow and be cold.

November was top tier for sure, high snowfall (relative to average) with departures like -5.0F at MVL and -5.8F at MPV. 

Even BTV was -4.6F which for that station is a pure icebox.  A whole month of that departure at the well-mixed BTV site is no fake cold.

A brief thaw to start December and now back to winter.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It has definitely wanted to snow and be cold.

November was top tier for sure, high snowfall (relative to average) with departures like -5.0F at MVL and -5.8F at MPV. 

Even BTV was -4.6F which for that station is a pure icebox.  A whole month of that departure at the well-mixed BTV site is no fake cold.

A brief thaw to start December and now back to winter.

Yeah epic. We wait a little more here, although some of it is just luck given storm possibly missing later this week. Still early for that.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

Tonight’s snow is from “two weak pieces of energy coming together over northern VT” as outlined in the BTV NWS forecast discussion:

For tonight, interesting setup with two weak pieces of energy coming together over northern VT, first approaches region from the northwest, while 2nd is rotating around closed 5h circulation to our south. Thinking these short waves will produce just enough lift, with developing moisture in the favorable snow growth area to produce a period of light accumulating snowfall across the mountains of northern/central VT, including the NEK.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 25.7 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.8” Snow/0.04” L.E.

 

There were still a few flurries floating around this morning at observations time, but I think this current snowfall event is just about done.  Flake size finally decreased a bit and the ratios came down out of the stratosphere to the point where I could actually get liquid out of the cores, but the snow was still in the ~3% H2O range.  The latest rounds of event observations are below:

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 33.3

Snow Density: 3.0% H2O

Temperature: 25.3 F

Sky:  Light Snow (2-6 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 19.4 F

Sky:  Flurries

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 1.8” Snow/0.04” L.E.

 

There were still a few flurries floating around this morning at observations time, but I think this current snowfall event is just about done.  Flake size finally decreased a bit and the ratios came down out of the stratosphere to the point where I could actually get liquid out of the course, but the snow was still in the ~3% H2O range.  The latest rounds of event observations are below:

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 33.3

Snow Density: 3.0% H2O

Temperature: 25.3 F

Sky:  Light Snow (2-6 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 19.4 F

Sky:  Flurries

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

Nice only you guys in VT can get a half inch of snow in 6 hrs and your depth decreases by a half inch. Air Jordan snow, must look awesome.

[J.Spin]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice only you guys in VT can get a half inch of snow in 6 hrs and your depth decreases by a half inch. Air Jordan snow, must look awesome.

Yeah, the new snow definitely has that fluff and sparkle to it.  We’ve had about 6 to 7 inches here at our place in the past few days.  It’s settled to about half that depth of course, but it’s definitely making a difference in the surfaces.  Although a big L.E. snow event is clearly the best for resurfacing, this snowfall is the kind stuff that helps get the conditions on the slopes back to something respectable.

The next one in the pipe looks like it’s knocking on our door.

 

Our point forecast suggests 2-4”, with 4-8” in the higher elevations around here.  “Bread and butter”, as they say.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

629 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Occasional snow showers are expected through tonight with a plowable snowfall anticipated over parts of northern New York and Green Mountains of Vermont. Bands of lake effect snow showers will develop today and continue overnight ahead of an arctic cold front. Snowfall accumulations will range from a dusting to an inch or two in the Champlain, Connecticut, and northern Saint Lawrence Valleys to 2 to 6 inches with localized higher amounts over the Adirondacks and portions of the Green Mountains.  

[alex]

0.5" of fluff overnight. Light snow just started again. 

[J.Spin]

I hadn’t looked at the full BTV NWS AFD yet, but boy is there some great stuff in there from our mountain-savvy forecasting crew regarding the next couple of days – lake-effect, upslope, shortwaves, snow ratios, local mountain details, it just goes on and on.  The last paragraph is like a PF special, all about the upslope.  From a skier’s perspective, the crew is knocking it out of the park and more than earning their salary going that extra mile to cover all the topography and effects so thoroughly.

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 623 AM EST Thursday...Current forecast in good shape with no significant changes made. Did update to capture latest hourly temps/dwpts. Radar shows lake effect band developing near KART/KGTB while expanding toward southern Saint Lawrence County and the western Dacks as vis at KART is down to 1/4sm in snow. All elements covered well in forecast.

Winter weather advisory continues for Southern Saint Lawrence County until 7 AM Friday for snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with localized higher amounts mainly south of a Hammond to Russell to Carry Falls Reservoir line. Expect occasional lake effect snow showers thru tonight with rapidly changing sfc vis and road conditions in the heaviest snow shower activity. Also, the central and northern Green Mountains of VT from Mt Abraham to Mansfield to Jay Peak will receive 2 to 6 inches with localized 8 to 10 inches possible from Mansfield to Jay Peak by midday Friday. A sharp snowfall gradient from the CPV to the mountains is anticipated and areal coverage of snowfall >4 inches will be limited, along with impacts, therefore no advisory necessary. A dusting to several inches possible in the CPV and parts of the northern SLV by Friday.

Water vapor shows narrow axis of mid level moisture and embedded short wave energy which produced light snow over northern/central VT, including the CPV is lifting north of fa. Meanwhile...upstream brisk west/southwest mid/upper level flow with numerous embedded short waves and pockets of mid level moisture is streaming toward our cwa, while trof deepens across the Great Lakes. First short wave, mid level rh, and enhanced lake effect moisture lifts across our cwa btwn 14z-18z today, with a period of occasional snow showers anticipated. Sounding profiles indicate deep moisture with good rh in snow growth region, so anticipating snow ratios in the 15 to 20 to 1 range. Meanwhile, 925mb to 850mb southwest flow strengthens ahead of approaching sfc cold front, so anticipate lake effect snow showers to redevelop by 21z over northern NY and extend ne toward Jay Peak. Soundings show lake to 850mb temp differences near 20 degrees, creating moderate to extreme low level instability profiles, with deep moisture available thru 700mb. These ingredients along with well aligned southwest cloud layer flow will help to produce a moderate to localized heavy lake effect snow band across southern Saint Lawrence County this evening, before action shifts to the south by 06z.

Meanwhile as lake effect shifts south, many parameters look favorable for a 6 to 12 hour window of accumulating upslope snow showers, especially across the northern Dacks and central/northern Green Mountains of VT. The combination of developing west to northwest upslope flow, several additional short waves crossing our fa, and favorable moisture profiles thru 700mb will produce periods of snow showers. Would not be surprised of a burst of moderate snowfall mainly in the mountains btwn 03z-09z tonight as the arctic boundary pushes across our cwa. As colder profiles develop overnight, favorable snow growth region expands with good available moisture, so anticipate ratio`s to increase btwn 20 to 30 to 1 by Friday morning. However, areal coverage of snow shower activity will slowly decrease on Friday and become mainly confined to the northern Mountains. Always difficult to determine exact end timing under upslope flow and strong low level caa, but have likely pops tapering to chc pops by Fri aftn. Several additional fluffy inches possible on Friday, especially Mansfield to Jay Peak. Bottom line expect periods of accumulating snowfall over the next 12 to 24 hours, with highest accumulations over the Southern St Lawrence Valley/northern Dacks and central/northern Vt Mountains, with an inch or two possible in the valleys. Highs today mainly 20s to lower 30s with lows dropping back into the teens to mid 20s tonight. Highs Friday start in the teens to mid/upper 20s but hold steady or fall back into the single digits summits to lower 20s warmer valleys by evening.

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Yeah, the new snow definitely has that fluff and sparkle to it.  We’ve had about 6 to 7 inches here at our place in the past few days.  It’s settled to about half that depth of course, but it’s definitely making a difference in the surfaces.  Although a big L.E. snow event is clearly the best for resurfacing, this snowfall is the kind stuff that helps get the conditions on the slopes back to something respectable.

The next one in the pipe looks like it’s knocking on our door.

 

Our point forecast suggests 2-4”, with 4-8” in the higher elevations around here.  “Bread and butter”, as they say.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

629 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Occasional snow showers are expected through tonight with a plowable snowfall anticipated over parts of northern New York and Green Mountains of Vermont. Bands of lake effect snow showers will develop today and continue overnight ahead of an arctic cold front. Snowfall accumulations will range from a dusting to an inch or two in the Champlain, Connecticut, and northern Saint Lawrence Valleys to 2 to 6 inches with localized higher amounts over the Adirondacks and portions of the Green Mountains.  

So so awesome.

[J.Spin]

4 minutes ago, alex said:

Light snow just started again. 

Similar here in BTV – flakes have started flying in the past 10 minutes or so.

[powderfreak]

Hey look it's been snowing for a couple hours now. 

Snow globe.  Literally every day there are flakes flying.

[backedgeapproaching]

PF, JSpin and Alex--- The Bermuda Triangle of NNE. 

Everyone else is just cloudy/cold..or even sunny/cold..lol

[mreaves]

14 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

PF, JSpin and Alex--- The Bermuda Triangle of NNE. 

Everyone else is just cloudy/cold..or even sunny/cold..lol

Hey! Hold on just a second!  I have light flurries floating around outside my office right now!

[J.Spin]

4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Hey! Hold on just a second!  I have light flurries floating around outside my office right now!

If we actually drew the geographic triangle, you would probably be in it no?  Would borderwx would be a good vertex?  Is he typically in the globe?

[J.Spin]

55 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hey look it's been snowing for a couple hours now. 

Snow globe.  Literally every day there are flakes flying.

Well, ‘tis the season and location.

[borderwx]

56 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

If we actually drew the geographic triangle, you would probably be in it no?  Would borderwx would be a good vertex?  Is he typically in the globe?

Have no fear, daily  1-2” deposits.

I am a little further from   the Green Mt snow fence so not much to brag about. We get more blue patches between squalls. 

Intermittent globing:)

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

PF, JSpin and Alex--- The Bermuda Triangle of NNE. 

Everyone else is just cloudy/cold..or even sunny/cold..lol

Ha even BTV is getting in on the flakes, last hour they were 1 mile visibility in -SN.

KBTV 061754Z 19010KT 1SM R15/P6000FT -SN BKN034 BKN040 OVC046 M01/M04 A2998 RMK AO2

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, borderwx said:

Have no fear, daily  1-2” deposits.

I am a little further from   the Green Mt snow fence so not much to brag about. We get more blue patches between squalls. 

Intermittent globing:)

I like that description... Green Mtn snow fence.  Collecting all snow that moves through the atmospheric flow.  

I'm with you on the east side, more blue patches between the squalls.  Another great description of the differences.

[alex]

We are experiencing constipated upslope. It's been trying all day but never really seems to get going!

[powderfreak]

23 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Snowing steadily but lightly... but this has to be about as perfect a snow growth as you can get.  This is how someone gets like 3" on 0.05" of water.

 

 

Hey guess what?  It's snowing!

Another night, another photo of fluff on the car and the dendrites just pouring down. 

 

Radar showing some waves of moisture moving through.

[powderfreak]

So the trick this evening before the FROPA will be where does the Lake Ontario band interact with the Green Mountains.

 

You can see the Ontario band is aimed pretty nicely across the southern Adirondacks and into the Greens... my gut tells me J.Spin to Sugarbush stretch could do real well on that moisture axis.

It's finally working its way this far east and you can see the moisture blossoming (shocker) into J.Spin's region and south into Camels Hump.  What happens with that moisture stream over the next several hours will be interesting to watch.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

As of 6:00 P.M. there was a tenth of an inch of snow on the boards from this event, with a bit more falling this evening.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 30.4 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

So the trick this evening before the FROPA will be where does the Lake Ontario band interact with the Green Mountains.

You can see the Ontario band is aimed pretty nicely across the southern Adirondacks and into the Greens... my gut tells me J.Spin to Sugarbush stretch could do real well on that moisture axis.

It's finally working its way this far east and you can see the moisture blossoming (shocker) into J.Spin's region and south into Camels Hump.  What happens with that moisture stream over the next several hours will be interesting to watch.

Snowfall hasn’t been too heavy here thus far, with 0.1” through 6:00 P.M. and another 0.2” since then.  It’s definitely become more robust in the past 10 minutes or so with the current pulse that’s hitting the area though:

[powderfreak]

Now it's snowing... another car cleaning coming in the morning. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Now it's snowing... another car cleaning coming in the morning. 

 

I see your spine

[J.Spin]

Check out that shot of snowfall coming into Burlington right now – you can really see the big flakes coming down on the Church Street Marketplace Live Web Cam.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

The snowfall was just flurries at observations time this morning, but it was really picking up as I left the house, so there may yet be a bit more moisture to come.  Overnight, I suspect flake size came down a bit, since the density of the 1.7” on the boards this morning was notably more hefty than the midnight reading.  Of course, it’s not hard to go upward when it comes to 2.0% H2O-ish fluff, but with almost a tenth of an inch of liquid in this morning’s core, it was a notably more substantial contribution to the resurfacing and bolstering of the pack that’s been going on this week.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0

Snow Density: 2.0% H2O

Temperature: 30.4 F

Sky:  Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 18.9

Snow Density: 5.3% H2O

Temperature: 24.6 F

Sky:  Flurries

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

[alex]

Just 7/8" here, with some flurries at the moment. 

[J.Spin]

With the current system winding down, I took a look at the snowfall totals stand since the warm section of Winter Storm Carter over the weekend.  For the resorts that have them available, I took the 7-day totals, which should be fairly representative of what’s fallen atop the old base.  Here’s the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas along the spine:

Jay Peak: 16”

Smuggler’s Notch: 21”

Stowe: 20”

Bolton Valley: 12”

Pico: 7”

Killington: 7”

Bromley: 9”

 

A quick check on the modeling suggests the next system would be coming through the area tomorrow night.  In the BTV NWS AFD it’s described as a weak clipper low/upper shortwave, with accumulations expected to be fairly light.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

631 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 617 AM EST Friday...Saturday will start out with sunshine, but clouds will increase through the afternoon as a weak clipper low/upper shortwave approaches from the northwest. Snow showers will spread in from the west Saturday afternoon ahead of this system, but limited moisture and weak forcing will keep daytime snow accumulation light. Saturday`s highs will once again be well below normal, in the upper teens to mid 20s.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

As of 242 AM EST Friday...Lingering snow showers are expected across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains Saturday night with the axis of the upper level trough moving through the region. As the trough moves through, moisture will begin to decrease pretty rapidly which will help limit the areal coverage and intensity of any lingering snow showers.

[powderfreak]

A radar from overnight.  

I would estimate 6-7" up high overnight.  5" in the base area.

The Green Mountain snow fence capturing passing moisture.