J.Spin Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I don't think it'll be lost.... But it's going to take a hit.... Like losing a foot or something along those lines Well, if you’re serious about the discussion I think it’s important to specify locations in your comments, since this system is going to have dramatically different effects in different parts of the Northeast. As folks have noted in the replies, up here in the mountains of NVT where there’s going to be frozen precipitation added to the pack on the front and back ends of the system, the amount of rain is substantially less, and temperatures are in the 30s F, the effects are going to be quite different than farther south. If you want an objective analysis of the effects on the snowpack for this event, look at the NOHRSC plot I posted; indeed it suggests a few inches of settling in the pack, which is absolutely expected. But the projected melt rate doesn’t even move from zero, and the total liquid in the snowpack is essentially the same after the event as it was before. Assessing the effects of warmth and precipitation on the snowpack can certainly be a challenge with so many factors to consider, but the plots try to take all those factors into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, J.Spin said: If you’re ever unsure of how a mixed system is going to affect the snowpack and want an objective analysis of the results without all the silly weenie stuff, just go the NOHRSC plots that Ginx told us about. https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html They’re not necessarily perfect for every nuance of every system, but from what I’ve seen for our site in comparison to my empirical observations, their modeling is quite good. You can use the map to check on whatever locations you’d like, but you can see from the plot for our site that the effects of the system are expected to be pretty inconsequential as folks have been saying. The red “Snow Melt Rate” line doesn’t even blip with this event, which speaks volumes. And this is for our site in the valley - imagine how insignificant it is for the mountains where the snowpack is more than doubled in places: Youre doing a good job! Some flatlanders dont quite understand how things work in the Mtns of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Below are the latest maps from the BTV NWS associated with the effects of Winter Storm Indra. The Winter Weather Advisories are much more expansive now, but projected accumulations are fairly similar with an inch or two in the north on the front end of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 17 hours ago, powderfreak said: Haha, I don't know if it would even be possible. Your comment made me think, what could melt this in 24 hours? Maybe at 85/67 for 24 hours? 9-10 inches of water with a very cold core temperature and literally just straight ice for the last 16"...interesting to think about. If this event didn't do it for Farmington, tonight/tomorrow won't even get close. (Note: I find that precip total suspect, as next most was nearly 3" lower.) Obs time was 7 AM. 12/26/69: 19 -17 T T 21 12/27/69: 33 6 3.97 15.0 30 12/28/69: 51 27 5.99 18 Amazing to me that the torch-deluge (the co-op's greatest one-day RA in its 125 years; 27th is 9th most) took at most 18" of pack. It brought the Sandy River to its 5th greatest peak flow. Current depth is 25" with about 7" SWE. I expect to have 20+ remaining Friday morning. My concern is far less about pack, far more that cleared surfaces around here, which now have good-traction "white gravel", will revert to the bumpy ice rink that's dominated since Nov. 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 55 minutes ago, J.Spin said: Below are the latest maps from the BTV NWS associated with the effects of Winter Storm Indra. The Winter Weather Advisories are much more expansive now, but projected accumulations are fairly similar with an inch or two in the north on the front end of the system. Thanks J, I will take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I don't think it'll be lost.... But it's going to take a hit.... Like losing a foot or something along those linesJeezus, you need a Valium?Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Started as snow here... We'll see for how long. 24/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Whole different story up north, especially this winter where I've gotten over 5 feet of frozen compared to about 20" here in Lowell. I'd guess the depth in Lowell is about dense 6" OTG (with probably 1.5" liquid). Depth at cabin is about 2 feet, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had 6"+ liquid. With the 2-3" of rain and temps in 50's it could get wiped out, but the ice to rain to snow up north is only going to add density to the pack. Current temp at cabin: 25.4/11 Current temp Lowell: 39.5/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 26F Light freezing rain. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to go above freezing. Ground surfaces are obviously extremely cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, MarkO said: Whole different story up north, especially this winter where I've gotten over 5 feet of frozen compared to about 20" here in Lowell. I'd guess the depth in Lowell is about dense 6" OTG (with probably 1.5" liquid). Depth at cabin is about 2 feet, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had 6"+ liquid. With the 2-3" of rain and temps in 50's it could get wiped out, but the ice to rain to snow up north is only going to add density to the pack. Current temp at cabin: 25.4/11 Current temp Lowell: 39.5/31 I have just under 14" at the snow stake. Lots of sleet mixed in so the pack will condense and refreeze into a glacier if we get 1.5" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 18 minutes ago, MarkO said: Whole different story up north, especially this winter where I've gotten over 5 feet of frozen compared to about 20" here in Lowell. I'd guess the depth in Lowell is about dense 6" OTG (with probably 1.5" liquid). Depth at cabin is about 2 feet, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had 6"+ liquid. With the 2-3" of rain and temps in 50's it could get wiped out, but the ice to rain to snow up north is only going to add density to the pack. Current temp at cabin: 25.4/11 Current temp Lowell: 39.5/31 See, you admit it could be wiped out!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 When I left on Monday, I had to trek out to my shed and the pack was over knee deep (poking through two layers) and standing on the third. It's got density. Like I said, 6+inches liquid. My forecast up there calls for it to start as mix of frozen, flip to rain (0.5-0.75") then back to snow. So it will be absorbed. I "thought" it said 2-3" of rain around here, but it's only 1-2", so I don't think it will be totally gone, but spotty and banks. NNE winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: I have just under 14" at the snow stake. Lots of sleet mixed in so the pack will condense and refreeze into a glacier if we get 1.5" liquid. 26" at the stake here and that's a low spot compared to more protected areas so not concerned about a wipeout, but the driveway WILL become a glacier, and that SUCKS. Snow has stopped, not doing anything at the moment, and temp has started inching back up - currently 25/18. I'm sure we will torch as soon as the winds pick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 It actually could be pretty ugly down this way...Euro has like 2-2.5" of rain and dews 40-45F for like 10 hours. Ughh. I will have to look at that NOHRSC site. Firehouse usploping some into the Southern Daks and Southern Greens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I'm out of town, but looks like a mini Niagara falls coming down from the roof in front of my outdoor cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Raked some of the roof, I tried to get a ground depth. Best as I could tell 21" but it is hard to say for sure as it is difficult to find an undisturbed area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 UGLY 2” through the daylight today with temps at 24F kitchen sink fell for a couple hours at dark and now a full on shalacking ironically the best maintained roads are now a sheet of ice up here kind of hoping for some 40s to cook off the crust just now bumping to 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, borderwx said: UGLY 2” through the daylight today with temps at 24F kitchen sink fell for a couple hours at dark and now a full on shalacking ironically the best maintained roads are now a sheet of ice up here kind of hoping for some 40s to cook off the crust just now bumping to 33 Wow even up on the borderlands it's a disaster ☹️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 It’s winter in New England not a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Wxmanmitch could have flooding issues , no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Wxmanmitch could have flooding issues , no? Water flows downhill, he'll be fine. Getting anywhere else might be a problem though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Looks like 2.27" at home so far. PWS over in Dorset VT already at 3.56"--jesus. Some spots will be over 4"...just awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/23/2019 at 10:46 AM, Whineminster said: I don't think it'll be lost.... But it's going to take a hit.... Like losing a foot or something along those lines Temps here have been bouncing around in the mid-30s all day with rain. I thought I might lose 6" but it may not even be that much as we had some sleet and freezing rain insulate the snowpack first. 33-38F all day so far. 36F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 The roads are so bad they closed schools up here in Stowe and Morrisville. All side roads are just sheets of ice. Any dirt road is pretty much impassible due to the glazing. Even at 36F it seems the ground is cold enough that it's not melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: The roads are so bad they closed schools up here in Stowe and Morrisville. All side roads are just sheets of ice. Any dirt road is pretty much impassible due to the glazing. Even at 36F it seems the ground is cold enough that it's not melting. Same here but we've popped up to 42° or so. The sidewalks were absolutely treacherous when I got to work this morning. Had to walk in the street to my office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 48 RN+ About as hard as I ever see it rain in the winter months, very impressive. Glad Im up high to be in the warm air, down below its still stuck in the low/mid 30's. Snow depth down only dow 2-3" from around 14" yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Last time I checked it was 44.4/44 at cabin which is warmer than I thought. It was in the mid 30's around 9AM this morning. Pack taking a hit, but not as bad as around here. Currently 54.2/53 in Lowell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, MarkO said: Last time I checked it was 44.4/44 at cabin which is warmer than I thought. It was in the mid 30's around 9AM this morning. Pack taking a hit, but not as bad as around here. Currently 54.2/53 in Lowell. Yeah see I was right. Sled trails and slopes will be icy as hell this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Rain falling straight down, 40 here Always chuckle at how warm 40 feels after a good run of arctic living Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Schools were closed down this way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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