NNE Winter Thread

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We nickel and diming it until we reload the pattern.....

 

Wouldn't be shocked if amounts creep up for Rangeley and SR regions. The CAD has been trending a bit stronger. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wouldn't be shocked if amounts creep up for Rangeley and SR regions. The CAD has been trending a bit stronger. 

Exactly what the 0z Nam just did, Even here as well, Its the Nam though, Coldest run so far, Pops a secondary along the Maine coast,  18z Euro did go a couple tics colder too though.

[dendrite]

32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Every day I have snow on the car now I think of @dendriteangrily ripping his car door open, annoyed that he has to wipe the truck off.  I can't get that out of my head...then I just watch as the wipers easily clear the snow off and the rest blows off as you drive off.

lol...the truck doesn't bother me so much. Like you said, the 2" of fluff blows off before a cop can see you driving with it. The problem is clearing my path to and around the coop and in the run. It's just a PITA. I'd rather have a 10" storm every 2 weeks and snowblow through it once.

[#NoPoles]

40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol...the truck doesn't bother me so much. Like you said, the 2" of fluff blows off before a cop can see you driving with it. The problem is clearing my path to and around the coop and in the run. It's just a PITA. I'd rather have a 10" storm every 2 weeks and snowblow through it once.

I know you have a helper

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.71” L.E.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 18.5 F

Sky:  Flurries

Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Every day I have snow on the car now I think of @dendriteangrily ripping his car door open, annoyed that he has to wipe the truck off.  I can't get that out of my head...then I just watch as the wipers easily clear the snow off and the rest blows off as you drive off.

He’ll, I like snow but that’s me, living my life with no garage. 

[mahk_webstah]

A very confusing zone and discussion from gyx 

[dendrite]

NAM is a lot of snow here. Ugh. I guess the break is coming to an end abruptly.

[mahk_webstah]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM is a lot of snow here. Ugh. I guess the break is coming to an end abruptly.

That was a confusing discussion from GYX .  Seems like a razors edge.  Rain? Snow? If the trend is to ward snow I assume that means a secondary so if that happens then why would it change to rain?

[tamarack]

Nice to see GYX on board for a colder scenario.  Up until now they were pretty bearish for frozen, now it's 4-8".  GFS still warm for this one, but has 8-12" out at day 6.  Things are perking up.

[Hitman]

This sounds good from Btv

Interesting, the fast moved of system cuts off warm nose from
reaching northern VT, especially northeast Kingdom, where 925mb
to 850mb profiles stay at or below 0c, supporting mostly snow.
Thinking a plowable snowfall of 3 to 6 inches is likely for
central/northern VT, especially the northeast Kingdom for this
event.

[dendrite]

33 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

That was a confusing discussion from GYX .  Seems like a razors edge.  Rain? Snow? If the trend is to ward snow I assume that means a secondary so if that happens then why would it change to rain?

Just a trend toward more CAD. GFS has less snow. We’ll wait for 12z. 

[dryslot]

MOS with an 8 on friday the 4th here

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Nice to see GYX on board for a colder scenario.  Up until now they were pretty bearish for frozen, now it's 4-8".  GFS still warm for this one, but has 8-12" out at day 6.  Things are perking up.

It could be high end advisory here or warning for tomorrow night, The end of the week system looks very interesting at this lead.

[dryslot]

Latest from GYX............

[dendrite]

NAM trended a little warmer aloft at 12z. Euro was about 0.50" frozen (SN/IP) here with Rangeley pushing 0.75".

[wxeyeNH]

Perhaps another steep gradient around these parts for tomorrow night.  Watching the New Years festivities with large parachutes coming down.  6"ish for me?  

 

Edit, maybe a bit more than 6".  Could be quite a thumping tomorrow eve.  Too bad only a few of us on the boards will be able to enjoy it.

[J.Spin]

The BTV NWS has put up Winter Weather Advisories for the upcoming storm – maps below:

[powderfreak]

Shocker, it's snowing out.  Big fat dendrites floating down.  Not going to amount to anything but wintry appeal every evening it seems like when it's snowing out in the flood lights.

[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Perhaps another steep gradient around these parts for tomorrow night.  Watching the New Years festivities with large parachutes coming down.  6"ish for me?  

 

Edit, maybe a bit more than 6".  Could be quite a thumping tomorrow eve.  Too bad only a few of us on the boards will be able to enjoy it.

I actually like the Canadian HRDPS.... I think it fits best with climo for snow in these events.  I could see a good zone of sleet from here to SW NH but the deeper cold is more into Maine where it should support snow.  That mid-level warming moves through VT and into NH pretty fast, IMO.  You guys in CAD are a lock for sub-freezing surface but the mid-levels make me nervous.

This map sort of is what I'm thinking...not that I think it's a good model but that it fits my thoughts.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I actually like the Canadian HRDPS.... I think it fits best with climo for snow in these events.  I could see a good zone of sleet from here to SW NH but the deeper cold is more into Maine where it should support snow.  That mid-level warming moves through VT and into NH pretty fast, IMO.  You guys in CAD are a lock for sub-freezing surface but the mid-levels make me nervous.

This map sort of is what I'm thinking...not that I think it's a good model but that it fits my thoughts.

Actually bumped the snowfall up a bit based on forecast soundings. I feel pretty good about surface temps staying cooler than guidance. If that's the case and models warm aloft like forecast soundings suggest, there will be more snow than our previous forecast.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually bumped the snowfall up a bit based on forecast soundings. I feel pretty good about surface temps staying cooler than guidance. If that's the case and models warm aloft like forecast soundings suggest, there will be more snow than our previous forecast.

Most of the data I've looked at this evening really has the mid-level warming running into a wall near the NH/ME border.  Even some of these progs get the cold deep enough into far NE MA for a flip to pounding snow for a couple hours.  I think we get skunked by mid-levels.  The east slope temps will be cold enough at the ski area for frozen but the warming aloft will plow through... the only way it doesn't is if the moisture and low level upslope flow on the east slope causes heavy enough precip to help wash out the warmth for a time.  Sometimes the mountain gets that strong lift to overcome marginal warming aloft, but this looks like a more moderate precip event up here (as opposed to a good period of 0.1"+/hr precip).

I'd say 1-2" of snow/sleet at the mountain followed by some ZR/cold rain before dry slot.  Neutral or even slight net gain on the hill as that dense sand won't melt given the brief shot above freezing.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Most of the data I've looked at this evening really has the mid-level warming running into a wall near the NH/ME border.  Even some of these progs get the cold deep enough into far NE MA for a flip to pounding snow for a couple hours.  I think we get skunked by mid-levels.  The east slope temps will be cold enough at the ski area for frozen but the warming aloft will plow through... the only way it doesn't is if the moisture and low level upslope flow on the east slope causes heavy enough precip to help wash out the warmth for a time.  Sometimes the mountain gets that strong lift to overcome marginal warming aloft, but this looks like a more moderate precip event up here (as opposed to a good period of 0.1"+/hr precip).

Southern fringes of the CAD will definitely have to deal with boundary layer issues. Even though it will be cool, the temps > 32 will be too deep around places like BVY for snow. But we're only talking by 1000 ft or so. Wouldn't take a model error of too much to flip that to an hour of heavy snow.

The forecast soundings do have quite a bit of lift in the DGZ right at onset, so I wouldn't be surprised by a few locations pounding a quick inch or two before the party is over. 

But like you say, I like the trends for ME. If warming hits a wall like the last event, we could see a nice overperformer. 

[alex]

49 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Southern fringes of the CAD will definitely have to deal with boundary layer issues. Even though it will be cool, the temps > 32 will be too deep around places like BVY for snow. But we're only talking by 1000 ft or so. Wouldn't take a model error of too much to flip that to an hour of heavy snow.

The forecast soundings do have quite a bit of lift in the DGZ right at onset, so I wouldn't be surprised by a few locations pounding a quick inch or two before the party is over. 

But like you say, I like the trends for ME. If warming hits a wall like the last event, we could see a nice overperformer. 

We are screwed lol. Better get those snow guns going again

[MarkO]

I heard the compressor pumps running at Waterville when it was freezing rain the other day. Do ski ares make snow in those conditions?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just got up to Vermont earlier and couldn’t believe the amount of snow left at my house. 12” of absolute glacier. You can ice skate on this stuff. 

Not expecting much frozen here in southern Vermont. Maybe an inch before sleet and then rain. 

[wxmanmitch]

32 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Just got up to Vermont earlier and couldn’t believe the amount of snow left at my house. 12” of absolute glacier. You can ice skate on this stuff. 

Not expecting much frozen here in southern Vermont. Maybe an inch before sleet and then rain. 

You have more than I have. I've got half that at most. What's the elevation where you're at? Deepest packs right now are in shady, river ravines in the 1,500-2,000' range on the east slope. Above 2K is more susceptible to mixing and torching in the recent cutters. I was in the 40s on Friday, but some locales to my east never got much above freezing.

I'm not expecting much snow here tomorrow evening at all, if any. BL temperatures are pretty much never an issue in these SWFE setups at the onset, it's always the stinking midlevels, so it'll probably be pellets and freezing rain for a while before things slowly change to rain after midnight.

 

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Shocker, it's snowing out.  Big fat dendrites floating down.  Not going to amount to anything but wintry appeal every evening it seems like when it's snowing out in the flood lights.

Thanks for the heads up PF, I had no idea it was snowing, but when I see a post of yours with a radar image, it usually means I should check.  I see we’ve got a couple tenths of an inch down here, and best I can tell it’s due to a weak upper-level disturbance and favorable southwesterly flow off Lake Ontario.

[backedgeapproaching]

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Just got up to Vermont earlier and couldn’t believe the amount of snow left at my house. 12” of absolute glacier. You can ice skate on this stuff. 

Not expecting much frozen here in southern Vermont. Maybe an inch before sleet and then rain. 

Yep, that low elevation of 1100ft(relatively speaking) definitely helped last event.  You probably rotted at like 33-35F for most of the event

[backedgeapproaching]

8 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

You have more than I have. I've got half that at most. What's the elevation where you're at? Deepest packs right now are in shady, river ravines in the 1,500-2,000' range on the east slope. Above 2K is more susceptible to mixing and torching in the recent cutters. I was in the 40s on Friday, but some locales to my east never got much above freezing.

I'm not expecting much snow here tomorrow evening at all, if any. BL temperatures are pretty much never an issue in these SWFE setups at the onset, it's always the stinking midlevels, so it'll probably be pellets and freezing rain for a while before things slowly change to rain after midnight.

 

Think he said he is in the 1000-1100ft range down the east slope near Jamaica.

Yep, they events are awful for SVT.  The west slopes stand no chance where I am, just immediate torch with no CAD abilities. The east slopes can hold and higher elevations too, but like you said mid levels just torch so quickly.