NNE Winter Thread

[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

and the 18Z GFS.  Gone crazy with snow chances the next 10 days.  Those clown maps are ridiculous.  

Euro looks like a lot of cold rain over the next 10 days.

Quebec up in the St Lawrence Seaway just gets clobbered though.  With 40-70" on the ground up that way from a season of getting clobbered, what's another couple feet.

[J.Spin]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Tomorrow night looks interesting for the higher terrain...maybe even a coating in the valleys.  Thermals are real close to a good 3-4" burst in the hills of NNE.

Those thoughts seem quite consistent with what I’m seeing in the point forecasts around here – a touch of snow in the valley with a few inches in the hills.

[wxeyeNH]

12Z GFS  has me in the 2-4" snowfall range.  Seems plausible if we get the qpf.   36.6/5F with clouds thickening.  Lots of room for temp to fall as sun angle decreases late afternoon.

[tamarack]

29 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

12Z GFS  has me in the 2-4" snowfall range.  Seems plausible if we get the qpf.   36.6/5F with clouds thickening.  Lots of room for temp to fall as sun angle decreases late afternoon.

Nice low dews too, for evaporational cooling.  (Except for CON, though I think there's an error there - TD 32 while the rest of NNE is in the singles.)

[wxeyeNH]

23 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Nice low dews too, for evaporational cooling.  (Except for CON, though I think there's an error there - TD 32 while the rest of NNE is in the singles.)

1pm 38.1/3.5F   Dew is slowly falling.   Sun still fairly bright thru cirrus

[dendrite]

34 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Nice low dews too, for evaporational cooling.  (Except for CON, though I think there's an error there - TD 32 while the rest of NNE is in the singles.)

It's actually not reporting dewpoint

METAR KCON 051651Z AUTO 07/ A3044 RMK AO2 SLP312 T0067 PWINO $ =

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

It's actually not reporting dewpoint

METAR KCON 051651Z AUTO 07/ A3044 RMK AO2 SLP312 T0067 PWINO $ =

32 was what showed up on the GYX roundup at 2.  Next hour CON dew was lower singles, like everywhere else out of sight from salt water.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

32 was what showed up on the GYX roundup at 2.  Next hour CON dew was lower singles, like everywhere else out of sight from salt water.

The GYX algorithm is just taking the missing ob as 0C. There was a brief -78F in there when the sensor first failed...looks like they’ve repaired it though.

[powderfreak]

That was a weenie run of the ECM this afternoon for the mountains.  Good upslope event in there.  

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That was a weenie run of the ECM this afternoon for the mountains.  Good upslope event in there.  

 

Good ole northern Maine, lol.  

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That was a weenie run of the ECM this afternoon for the mountains.  Good upslope event in there.  

 

Geezu

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Wish I was up there right now, dumping on the Stratton cam. Stupid wrist. 

 

[powderfreak]

38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Geezu

I have no thoughts on any outcomes over the next few weeks... except it would be foolish to think the NNE mountains don't have at least a chance of one more decent snow event (6+) through the end of April if there's a good block to deflect an active flow to the southeast of New England.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.11” L.E.

My wife said that the precipitation was a mix of rain and snow as she headed through Waterbury this evening, but snow by the time she got here to the house.  I’ve had the rain gauge in summer mode, and there was no liquid in it, so I guess it’s been all snow thus far.  We had a good burst of snow for a while there visible by the 30-35 db returns on the radar:

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.11 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 4.5

Snow Density: 22.0% H2O

Temperature: 33.3 F

Sky:  Light Snow (2 to 6 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

[alex]

All snow here

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Geezu

Wonder what max depth was in western Maine this year, must have been deep deep.

[OceanStWx]

33 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Wonder what max depth was in western Maine this year, must have been deep deep.

Phillips got up to 53" and Brassua Dam 47"

 

[wxeyeNH]

I didn't measure but eyeballing a good solid covering maybe half an inch little more last night?

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.16” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 34.9 F

Sky:  Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

[tamarack]

8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Phillips got up to 53" and Brassua Dam 47"

 

The higher ground W and NW from Allagash probably got deeper, but no obs there. 

All snow here - 0.2" on 0.02" LE.  Three snow events this month!  (Total of 0.5")

[Ginx snewx]

When modeling consistently showing this and not a single NNE post you know they are cryin for their mommas. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

When modeling consistently showing this and not a single NNE post you know they are cryin for their mommas. 

Now that things have settled down some here, Just looking at models and looks like winter isn't over up just yet.

[tamarack]

7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

When modeling consistently showing this and not a single NNE post you know they are cryin for their mommas. 

Except for 2001, 07, 11, spring snow has consistently come in way under forecast here.  The 3 snow vents this spring (not counting the unexpected 0.2" flurry last week) were progged for about 8" total, and brought a bit less than 2" - typical.   This one seems to have better legs - Farmington's 90% chance/most likely/10% is currently 1/6/11.  Past experience says the 1" may be closer.  We're driving to WVL and back midday tomorrow (wife's cataract #2) so it could get interesting.

[J.Spin]

7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

When modeling consistently showing this and not a single NNE post you know they are cryin for their mommas. 

PF has had a post or two, and I’ve had a post or two (and you’ve had a couple of posts), so I’d say it’s about the usual in the thread for what’s there in the models.  From what I’ve seen it’s just not a rock solid “yep, that’s a foot of snow for the spine” setup yet.  The skins are certainly on the skis and ready though.  Actually the skins are still on from one of our recent outings at Bolton when we were anticipating having to skin because of the winds, but they were able to run the Timberline Quad.  There are some encouraging runs, but things can be a bit more tenuous this time of year.

[dryslot]

oye..............

[wxeyeNH]

NNE Musings:

Enjoyed my hour of sun earlier.  Looks like that's it.  At least it got me into the 40's.   Im very much doubting the upper 50's as models are showing.

Chimney guy came and swept out the chimney and stove is off.  Burning the oil this AM.  Why does the house feel so cold with oil heat vs wood?  I guess its the up and down on the thermostat, on/off cycle.  I hate the noise the furnace makes.

A mouse made it into the bedroom at 345am.  Lots of squealing and 2 cats running around and crashing into things.  They couldn't get the mouse.  He's hiding in there someplace his hours are numbered with our felines

Just not feeling it with these snow chances.  Im too far SW with tomorrow AM and not on board with Tuesday but this is just gut feeling.

I've posted lots of animal pictures from the weather cam but last night tops them all.  I counted 40 animals between deer and turkeys.  26 are in this picture more were around the other side of the house.  Total zoo out there as the pastures continue to open up.

[tamarack]

6 hours ago, dryslot said:

oye..............

12z GFS bumped up qpf for tomorrow and especially for Tuesday's "little" event.

[dryslot]

WWA have been issued.............

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
323 PM EDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...Winter Storm Warning Late Tonight Through Monday Evening...

.A late season winter storm will bring heavy wet snow and sleet
to portions of far northern New Hampshire and the Maine mountains
and foothills late tonight into Monday evening. Accumulations of 5
to 10 inches are likely...with lesser amounts further south and
east.

The heavy wet snow and sleet will cause travel difficulties and
may result in scattered power outages.

MEZ020>022-081000-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WW.Y.0018.190408T0400Z-190409T0000Z/
Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Including the cities of Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot,
Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney, Windsor,
Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson, Knox,
Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, and Unity
323 PM EDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Androscoggin, Kennebec and Interior Waldo Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

For a more precise forecast for your specific location...go to
www.weather.gov/gray.

&&

$$

Schwibs

[Ginx snewx]

Lol Jeffafafa 

 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol Jeffafafa 

 

Oh man would there be some folks crying for there mommas if that happened.