Whineminster Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 @sonerick hopefully riding will be good this weekend nice cold temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonerick Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 6 hours ago, Whineminster said: @sonerick hopefully riding will be good this weekend nice cold temps I don't know, might be doing some mudmobiling in spots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 hours ago, sonerick said: I don't know, might be doing some mudmobiling in spots Deep snowcover in NW Lakes Region of NH. Even with my full sun south facing slopes snow depth is just under 1 foot. Unless we get a lot of rain on Thursday I don't see a day or two of 40's doing too much damage. Perhaps lots of water bars with melt to cross otherwise I thin sledding will be okay for one last weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 On 3/17/2019 at 5:53 PM, powderfreak said: It was great photo snow, fluffy pow. But if you added in sound it was very loud pow. That firm base was 100% there on every turn. Riding the powder was actually quite good on appropriate low to moderate angle terrain yesterday at Stowe. On my snowboard I was definitely getting some bottomless turns at times. You weren’t going to stay away from the base on the steep stuff, but we had an awesome afternoon of riding powder on the lower angle stuff, and it was literally night and day compared to what the conditions would have been like without the delivery of that Northern Greens magic. We weren’t there until the afternoon, but it could only have been even better in the morning. I’ve got a few shots below, and a few more in the report linked above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 I hadn’t realized how close in time this next storm was getting, but since it’s just a couple days away now I took a look at the latest thoughts from the BTV NWS forecast discussion. It seems like there’s some good potential between the initial and upslope portions of the storm cycle. The models appear to be converging a bit more now, as one would expect as we get closer to the system, so we’ll see what their thoughts are this afternoon. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 432 AM EDT Tuesday...Models continue to struggle to come into some closer agreement on the coastal low just east of the DELMARVA region. The ECMWF still seems to be the most robust of the models with surface low dragging across southern New England leading to more projected snowfall across NEK and the northern Greens, while the GFS keeps the low out over the coastline and brings more conservative amounts over Eastern VT, though higher than the prior model runs. Friday does show a trough axis swings through the region with a nice shortwave tracking through the region, bringing with it snow showers, mainly in the higher terrain and a rain-snow mix in the valleys. Overall QPF amounts don`t look to be too significant right now, but shifting northwest flow mid-day Friday could lead to some overperforming snowfall amounts for NEK and the northern Greens through Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 10 hours ago, J.Spin said: Overall QPF amounts don`t look to be too significant right now, but shifting northwest flow mid-day Friday could lead to some overperforming snowfall amounts for NEK and the northern Greens through Saturday morning. Seems like every NW flow upslope event has overpreformed, compared to short term forecasts, this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 21 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said: Seems like every NW flow upslope event has overpreformed, compared to short term forecasts, this year. Upslope snow is a ratios game. The problem is looking at it like normal snow. The last event the models were dead on with QPF, but you get 30:1 ratios and 0.3" QPF is 9". All the snow maps are 10:1 too. I think the model QPF has done well in those events this season. You also just see "the signal"...and for the last decade if you see a model print a series of 0.1-.25" QPF panels every 6 hours, it means game on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Early guess from BTV and ALY in SVT. Tricky forecast, should be interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Albany and BTV clearly have different thoughts at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 I have a question for Chris. I noticed that Burlington NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the higher elevations of Vermont. I have never seen Gray do the same thing for NH or Maine. They always issue it by county. Sometimes they will break up my county (Grafton) into north and south. Issuing for higher elevations makes total sense instead of broad brushing. Is it a software related thing? If Burlington can do it I would assume Gray could too? Big day on my 15 acres. First small grass patch has appeared on the steep south slope part of the lawn. Snowcover came on Nov 9th. We did have patches of grass for a brief time around Christmas. Snowcover is down to 9" at the snowstake. This is the beginning of the time of year that it's hard to measure snowcover. Big differences between north and south facing slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Well, we’re getting to the point that the BTV NWS is starting to update their maps related to the upcoming winter storm, so I’ve added those below. Winter Storm Watches are now up along the spine. Using my site as a valley example, our current point forecast suggests 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation through Friday night, with the Mansfield elevation forecast at roughly 10 to 20 inches for that period. Both forecasts indicate some additional snow on Saturday however. The projected accumulations map goes through Saturday at 2:00 P.M. and tops out in the 12 to 18-inch range in the high elevations around here along the spine. That certainly seems a reasonable range for now, although it wouldn’t be surprising to see that exceeded in the high elevations that stay all snow and get a bunch of it with upslope ratios. The 12 to 18-hour period of moderate to heavy upslope snow mentioned in the AFD is certainly a decent chunk of time, so those accumulations should be interesting. Of course here’s the true pith of the discussion: “Beginning the event snow density will be quite high with ratios generally 8-12:1 through midnight Friday, but expect after that through Saturday ratios will rise to a general 15-20:1 making for superb skiing/riding on Saturday.” .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Favorable conditions then continue to appear likely Friday night for a 12-18 hour period of moderate to heavy upslope snow across the Adirondacks and western slopes of the central/northern Green Mountains as a secondary trough shifts southwest into the region consolidating with the initial trough to form a single broad upper trough over the Northeast. At the same time, the surface-700mb low parks itself over northern Maine providing an excellent feed of moisture and lift on north/northwest flow resulting in the potential for 6-10" mid-slopes and up to a foot or more above 2000 feet. Beginning the event snow density will be quite high with ratios generally 8-12:1 through midnight Friday, but expect after that through Saturday ratios will rise to a general 15-20:1 making for superb skiing/riding on Saturday. With all this in mind, have gone ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for portions of the area. Please see our winter page online for graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 From a p&c at 3k Saturday Snow before noon, then a chance of snow showers between noon and 2pm. High near 27. Very windy, with a northwest wind 50 to 55 mph decreasing to 39 to 44 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. thats growing to be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 10 hours ago, Hitman said: From a p&c at 3k Saturday Snow before noon, then a chance of snow showers between noon and 2pm. High near 27. Very windy, with a northwest wind 50 to 55 mph decreasing to 39 to 44 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. thats growing to be an issue. Indeed, folks should certainly bring the skins as backup if they’re planning on riding the lifts, just in case. On the point forecast note, projected snowfall amounts are also getting up there – the Mansfield point forecast is surpassing 2 feet on the top end now. This could be a great resurfacing up high. Today A 30 percent chance of light snow, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight A chance of light snow before 9pm, then snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 30. Windy, with a south wind 28 to 33 mph decreasing to 22 to 27 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday Snow. High near 31. Breezy, with an east wind 17 to 22 mph becoming west 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. Low around 16. Wind chill values as low as -5. Very windy, with a northwest wind 26 to 36 mph increasing to 45 to 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 3pm, then a chance of snow showers after 3pm. High near 21. Very windy, with a northwest wind 45 to 55 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Very windy, with a northwest wind 38 to 44 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I haven’t seen any conversions of the Winter Storm Watches yet, but I’ve got the latest maps from the BTV NWS below. The point forecast for us in the valley has seen a bump in the latest update, as it’s now more in the 6 to 12-inch range or so. As I noted in my previous post, the Mansfield point forecast is surpassing 2 feet on the top end now, and that seems consistent with the latest projected accumulation map where the peaks are getting some of that 18 to 24-inch red shading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I appreciate that they have a tiny dot over my place that bumps me up to the 3 to 4 range while the rest of town is the next level down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 12 hours ago, Hitman said: From a p&c at 3k Saturday Snow before noon, then a chance of snow showers between noon and 2pm. High near 27. Very windy, with a northwest wind 50 to 55 mph decreasing to 39 to 44 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. thats growing to be an issue. We are never going to get a storm like this or any other strong low pressure without wind holds. Strong NW flow is needed to make it snow so we want the wind. Best day for lift service should be Sunday or Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: We are never going to get a storm like this or any other strong low pressure without wind holds. Strong NW flow is needed to make it snow so we want the wind. Best day for lift service should be Sunday or Monday. sure, but in an ideal world, the winds would diminish around 8-9am saturday morning. See what you can do about that. Thank you. the bindings on my AT setup suffered catastrophic failure and I havent replaced them. hoping one of the more protected lifts can run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I got an alert text about an hour ago, but Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are now up in the area. There’s also been a bit of a bump on the projected accumulations map, with an expansion of that 18-24” shading along the spine and some of that 24-30” shading appearing now as well. I haven’t seen much change in our valley forecast, but the Mansfield point forecast is pushing 30 inches on the top end now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, J.Spin said: I got an alert text about an hour ago, but Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are now up in the area. There’s also been a bit of a bump on the projected accumulations map, with an expansion of that 18-24” shading along the spine and some of that 24-30” shading appearing now as well. I haven’t seen much change in our valley forecast, but the Mansfield point forecast is pushing 30 inches on the top end now. the 3k' p&c for sb is 13-25" for the record, snow-forecast.com which I believe is derived from the gfs, is 6" for what thats worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 I’m not sure when frozen precipitation started to mix in here, but it’s starting to make it down here to the 500’ elevation in the Winooski Valley. Our point forecast has us with a mix this evening, with snow predominating after 1:00 A.M., so this seems about what was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 I just checked the Sugarbush mountain cams and accumulations thus far look to be about an inch up at the summit cam near 4,000’, and about ½ inch at their mid-mountain cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.22” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 4.0 Snow Density: 25.0% H2O Temperature: 34.2 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 inch an hour rates 1" so far Heavy paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 31.6" Light snow. Looks like best qpf will be west and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 I just did a morning check on the Sugarbush mountain cams and I’m seeing 3-4” of accumulation at the 3,900’ cam, and 2-3” at the 3,125’ cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 fellas, whats it doing up there? looks like its puking on the sb webcam. I might be nuts but the summit cam looks like just shy of 7" in the last 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hitman said: fellas, whats it doing up there? looks like its puking on the sb webcam. I might be nuts but the summit cam looks like just shy of 7" in the last 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Heard MRG had 4" in last hour at the base. Puking.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 4-5” at J some pingers now and starting to crank up again eerily not windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Yowza! Wasn’t expecting this on the hill. Feel fortunate the snowblower could move it, 8” of heaaavy snow. Still on 32 and steady snow noticeable difference at 1900’. We left Jay in wind driven heavy snow. Probably 8” there at close, but ripping and colder. The paste line was particularly noticeable about 500’ below the parking lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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