NNE Winter Thread

[alex]

Crazy heavy snow here too

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Forecast models had no precipitation this afternoon but I'm hearing the mountain has picked up another 2-3" since 1pm, after the 3" last night.

See like forecast has not picked up on upslope snows but from my house in E. Montpelier looking west their is a solid mass of convective type clouds along the spine.

[mreaves]

21 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

See like forecast has not picked up on upslope snows but from my house in E. Montpelier looking west their is a solid mass of convective type clouds along the spine.

It's even blown over to downtown Montpelier from time to time.  Just had a snow shower roll through here.

[alex]

It's amazing how persistently heavy it's been. We lost power around noon and the resort emptied out, the afternoon was some of the best skiing of the season. This picture was taken at 4 pm - still very heavy 

[Angus]

Cannon Mountain lost power today around 11:30AM but seemed to be restored around 2ish.

[ChasingFlakes]

Looking at Sunday into Monday, theres potential either for some snow, mixing, or rain all the way into Quebec city with a cutter.  

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.07” L.E.

 

Yesterday’s snowfall marked the end of the backside snows from Winter Storm Scott, so the above totals should be the final numbers for the system. 

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 5.2 F

Sky:  Mostly Clear

Snow at the stake: 30.0 inches

 

The next potential opportunity for snow appears to come into the area this afternoon and stick around for a couple of days as an upper level trough moves into the area

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Burlington VT

738 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 630 AM EST Tuesday...Upper level trough pushes into the North Country today ushering colder air and chance for scattered light snow showers. Some weak instability will exist with cold pool aloft, and we expect convective and lake enhanced snow showers with afternoon lapse rates steepening. Continues to look like highest areal coverage will be in the Adirondacks and higher elevations of the Northern Greens, 1-3" of snow is possible in these areas.

[J.Spin]

The addition of this recent snow from Winter Storm Scott has brought the seasonal snowfall total here at our site up to the full seasonal average, so 2018-2019 will go down as at least an average snowfall season.  The pace of snowfall has definitely dropped off sharply over the past couple of weeks, so in terms of total snowfall this season now sits well behind seasons like 2007-2008 and 2008-2009, which were both up in the 170” to 180” range by this point.  Average snowfall from here on out at our site is still over 35 inches however, so this season does have plenty of potential snowfall left.

[wxeyeNH]

Water pouring off the south roof as yesterday's snow melts at 19F.  Sun gaining power.

Sneaky snow showers last evening brought me 1/4" and season to 88" which is probably just above average

Last season was 91" total and season before that 106"

Next systems look warm so the transition to mud season begins soon

[powderfreak]

Looking like deep winter but with a March vibe around here.  Mature snowpack, big snowbanks, but higher sun and the snow has that "sun worked" look on certain aspects.

Driving to a friend's this afternoon in Stowe...he's up around 1,200ft.  Probably 30-36" of dense snow there...my black lab can walk on it except for the top few inches of settled powder.

NNE winter as it should be.

[alex]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looking like deep winter but with a March vibe around here.  Mature snowpack, big snowbanks, but higher sun and the snow has that "sun worked" look on certain aspects.

Driving to a friend's this afternoon in Stowe...he's up around 1,200ft.  Probably 30-36" of dense snow there...my black lab can walk on it except for the top few inches of settled powder.

NNE winter as it should be.

 

 

Agree! My stake is at 30" but the snow is quite a bit deeper in the woods. I think next year I will place a stake there as well. I love seeing landmarks like tree signs that are normally at eye level be at my knees instead. Or driving down the driveway, where the ground looks like at eye level even though I know it's flat. This might be some of the deepest I've had since moving here but what's made it different is how long lasting it's been. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, alex said:

Agree! My stake is at 30" but the snow is quite a bit deeper in the woods. I think next year I will place a stake there as well. I love seeing landmarks like tree signs that are normally at eye level be at my knees instead. Or driving down the driveway, where the ground looks like at eye level even though I know it's flat. This might be some of the deepest I've had since moving here but what's made it different is how long lasting it's been. 

Ha, my favorite depth measure is this water fountain that is on the summer recreation path... it's usually waist high, but now you can trip over it at ankle level.

[J.Spin]

I sent along the BTV NWS discussion from earlier about the snow potential over the next couple of days, but I hadn’t really been paying attention this evening.  I just looked out though and there’s some fairly robust snowfall with a fresh inch on the boards.  I’m not sure how long it’s been snowing, but it may have started up fairly recently based on the radar:

[Zand]

Was planning on skiing Stowe, Smuggs, and Bush this Sunday-Tuesday but haven't pulled the trigger on lodging yet. Hard to tell at this point as the Euro and GFS are still miles apart but need to make a decision soon. Don't mind skiing in a little bit of rain. More afraid of a giant freezeover on the back end. Anyone want to convince me to go/not go? Lol

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I sent along the BTV NWS discussion from earlier about the snow potential over the next couple of days, but I hadn’t really been paying attention this evening.  I just looked out though and there’s some fairly robust snowfall with a fresh inch on the boards.  I’m not sure how long it’s been snowing, but it may have started up fairly recently based on the radar:

I saw the radar lit up in your area and was just training up the Winooski Valley.  I do think there's some mesoscale convergence there between the mountains, the gap seems to allow for local enhancement as air is squeezed through to the east side.

[mreaves]

Took a 140 mile snowmobile jaunt through the northern Greens today. Left Morrisville went to Newport and then back. Lots of snow and it was snowing at Jay, as seen below. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.06” L.E.

 

The snow we’ve had so far this evening probably fell over the course of about an hour and a half, so I’d say the snowfall rate was roughly in the 1”/hr range.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 15.8 F

Sky:  Flurries

Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

[J.Spin]

11 hours ago, Zand said:

Was planning on skiing Stowe, Smuggs, and Bush this Sunday-Tuesday but haven't pulled the trigger on lodging yet. Hard to tell at this point as the Euro and GFS are still miles apart but need to make a decision soon. Don't mind skiing in a little bit of rain. More afraid of a giant freezeover on the back end. Anyone want to convince me to go/not go? Lol

It’s still hard to know exactly how the weekend storm is going to play out, but a lot of the model output has been improving on each run with respect to more frozen precipitation.  The BTV NWS certainly isn’t getting too gung ho for anything just yet in their discussion, but that Mansfield elevation forecast is now almost entirely snow.  Seeing the numbers below sort of has me wondering if wind holds are going to be an issue.

 

Sunday

Snow. High near 34. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 55 to 60 mph increasing to 60 to 65 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday Night

Snow before 10pm, then rain and snow between 10pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. Low around 22. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 50 to 60 mph becoming west 30 to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Very windy, with a west wind 34 to 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Windy, with a northwest wind 28 to 34 mph.

Tuesday

A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Windy, with a northwest wind 26 to 30 mph.

[mreaves]

Took this picture yesterday.  I was trying to get a shot of the giant wind turbines on the ridgeline above Lowell and Albany but the IPhone doesn't really have a good telephoto option.  I can't really explain out enormous they are.

[powderfreak]

Almost 3" of fluff overnight at Mansfield.  Some good turns out there but man is it cold.

[borderwx]

2” so far up here of surprise snow. Just doesn’t want to stop

Fingers crossed for the weekend storm.

Speaking of snowbanks, an unplanned route from the Montreal airport last weekend took us through Bolton-est. full size truck and the banks were overhead! Looked like their microclimate never received rain

[mreaves]

9 minutes ago, borderwx said:

2” so far up here of surprise snow. Just doesn’t want to stop

Fingers crossed for the weekend storm.

Speaking of snowbanks, an unplanned route from the Montreal airport last weekend took us through Bolton-est. full size truck and the banks were overhead! Looked like their microclimate never received rain

I was up that way yesterday and indeed it was snowing over Jay.  For much of the day we could see that it was snowing up high along the Spine.  We never got into it but seeing snow is always nice.

[wxeyeNH]

I wonder if today might be the last day of real, super winter cold for us?  Slow moderation this week.  Snow/mix/rain system late weekend.  No super cold as that departs.  Perhaps a storm west of us around day 10.  By then we are at the back end of March and going into mud season.  Sure many more cold days but I am fine if this is the last of true arctic air till next winter

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I wonder if today might be the last day of real, super winter cold for us?  Slow moderation this week.  Snow/mix/rain system late weekend.  No super cold as that departs.  Perhaps a storm west of us around day 10.  By then we are at the back end of March and going into mud season.  Sure many more cold days but I am fine if this is the last of true arctic air till next winter

Tomorrow looks just as cold as today...pretty chilly Friday morning too although that may be a morning where CON/1P1 is 5F and you're at 15F with a breeze on the hill. I think we say bye to the deep winter cold mid morning Friday.

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Tomorrow looks just as cold as today...pretty chilly Friday morning too although that may be a morning where CON/1P1 is 5F and you're at 15F with a breeze on the hill. I think we say bye to the deep winter cold mid morning Friday.

Lots of virga and clouds right now, struggling in the upper teens with the wind blowing pretty good, blowing snow from time to time across the fields.  Sunday seems to keep trending colder with more frozen but that is another story

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

When I arrived back in Waterbury yesterday around 6:00 P.M. it was snowing at a pretty good clip.  The flakes were on the smaller side, probably 3 to 4 mm, but visibility was definitely down as I was driving to the house.  We had a couple of tenths down in the evening, but at this morning’s observations there was a total of 0.6”, so it must have picked back up again overnight.  The BTV NWS discussion says that this round of snow was from convective snow showers streaming over the area.  With the smaller flakes, the density of this round of snowfall was about twice the density of the previous night’s snow, but both have delivered similar total liquid equivalent.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.0

Snow Density: 8.3% H2O

Temperature: 5.9 F

Sky:  Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

 

There’s not much on the radar right now, but I can see the Mansfield and other areas of the Northern/Central Greens disappearing into a bit of snowfall.

[J.Spin]

The BTV NWS is starting to get a bit more detailed in their discussion of the weekend system.  Their thoughts from this morning are for 3 to 4 inches of front end snowfall on Sunday, then dry slot with potential for a bit of mixed precipitation.  They’re also noting the potential for several inches of backside snow as we move into the beginning of next week:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 309 AM EST Thursday...Guidance in good agreement with band of mostly snow developing from southwest to northeast across our cwa on Sunday associated with modest low to mid level waa. Ribbon of 850 to 500mb moisture is relatively narrow, along with window of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing, so anticipate qpf/snowfall to generally be light. In addition, mid level dry slot and brisk 850mb winds of 45 to 60 knots will create some downslope shadowing across the cpv. Expect snowfall of a dusting to 3 or 4 inches, highest in the dacks and nek. Some localized gusty southeast downslope winds of 35 to 40 mph possible, but some uncertainty on amount of mixing with strong low level inversion and precip occurring. Higher resolution models will help determine strength of downslope winds in the upcoming days. Otherwise, cwa briefly gets into the warm sector with progged 925mb to 850mb temps near 0c by 18z Sunday, supporting a change to rain or wintry mix. However, as profiles warm enough to support liquid, the best lift/moisture is shifting to our east, so probably more like areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle possible on Sunday aftn. Temps should warm into the l30s east of the Greens to mid 30s to near 40 elsewhere, while summits hold in the upper 20s to near 30f. Cold front swings thru on Sunday night with progged 925mb to 850mb temps falling below 0c by 06z, supporting a change back to all snow. Once again qpf will be light and mainly confined to the mountains. GFS/ECMWF shows potent s/w energy and ribbon of deep 850 to 500mb rh moving across our cwa on Monday Night into Tues. This energy/lift, combined with developing upslope flow behind secondary cold front will produce several inches of snow in the mountains overnight. Temps cool back into the 20s to near 30f for Tues as 850mb values drop btwn -13c and -16c. Another ridge develops for midweek with temps slowly rebounding to near normal values by Weds into Thurs. Expect large swings in daily temps with lows single digits/teens and highs upper 20s to upper 30s.

[Zand]

Perhaps a sleeper powder day at Stowe Tuesday? Nice.

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

The BTV NWS is starting to get a bit more detailed in their discussion of the weekend system.  Their thoughts from this morning are for 3 to 4 inches of front end snowfall on Sunday, then dry slot with potential for a bit of mixed precipitation.  They’re also noting the potential for several inches of backside snow as we move into the beginning of next week:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 309 AM EST Thursday...Guidance in good agreement with band of mostly snow developing from southwest to northeast across our cwa on Sunday associated with modest low to mid level waa. Ribbon of 850 to 500mb moisture is relatively narrow, along with window of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing, so anticipate qpf/snowfall to generally be light. In addition, mid level dry slot and brisk 850mb winds of 45 to 60 knots will create some downslope shadowing across the cpv. Expect snowfall of a dusting to 3 or 4 inches, highest in the dacks and nek. Some localized gusty southeast downslope winds of 35 to 40 mph possible, but some uncertainty on amount of mixing with strong low level inversion and precip occurring. Higher resolution models will help determine strength of downslope winds in the upcoming days. Otherwise, cwa briefly gets into the warm sector with progged 925mb to 850mb temps near 0c by 18z Sunday, supporting a change to rain or wintry mix. However, as profiles warm enough to support liquid, the best lift/moisture is shifting to our east, so probably more like areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle possible on Sunday aftn. Temps should warm into the l30s east of the Greens to mid 30s to near 40 elsewhere, while summits hold in the upper 20s to near 30f. Cold front swings thru on Sunday night with progged 925mb to 850mb temps falling below 0c by 06z, supporting a change back to all snow. Once again qpf will be light and mainly confined to the mountains. GFS/ECMWF shows potent s/w energy and ribbon of deep 850 to 500mb rh moving across our cwa on Monday Night into Tues. This energy/lift, combined with developing upslope flow behind secondary cold front will produce several inches of snow in the mountains overnight. Temps cool back into the 20s to near 30f for Tues as 850mb values drop btwn -13c and -16c. Another ridge develops for midweek with temps slowly rebounding to near normal values by Weds into Thurs. Expect large swings in daily temps with lows single digits/teens and highs upper 20s to upper 30s.

Losing track of the number of these Strong Cutters with SE Downslope flow over the Western Green Slopes. I've already lost a bunch of shingles on my garage the faces East this winter from similar setups. 

[wxeyeNH]

.3F last night.  I'm at such a crappy place to radiate but it's fine with me to let the bogs and lowlands take the cold. I beat them out in CAA.

Few inches this weekend, turn the clocks, makes model watching harder in the evening and lets start turning the seasons!