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NNE Winter Thread


wxmanmitch
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30 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I might be spending the 26th-1st at Gunstock Mtn. Camp Resilience is a non profit the sponsors retreats and workshops for Veterans. The one i applied for works with Veterans to get their resume updated, works on job searching techniques as well as interviewing practice. Ever since The Heritage Adventure Park closed, Ive been lost about what to do for employment.

Good luck. I hope you get in. 

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7 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 2.6” Snow/0.36” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.08 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: 33.3 F

Sky:  Snow (2 to 12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

Hey just out of curiosity, have you ever noticed if your thermo runs warm? You seem to accumulate efficiently at 33-34F with higher ratios. I find that surprising. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey just out of curiosity, have you ever noticed if your thermo runs warm? You seem to accumulate efficiently at 33-34F with higher ratios. I find that surprising. 

It’s very possible that it’s off a bit – it’s just one of those Radio Shack remote thermometers that transmits to an interior unit.  I know it’s within a degree or two of where it should be at around the freezing mark, simply due to the experience of seeing what its reporting and being outside when things are melting/not melting.  For me it’s just a rough reference to throw in the observations anyway, since I don’t track daily/monthly temperatures or anything like that.  I was surprised when I saw it reporting that temperature above freezing last night, but it seemed about right based on feel.  The air felt kind of dry despite the snowfall, and even if the temperature is a bit above freezing, we often seem to be able to accumulate with loft if the air is dry.

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5 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

It’s very possible that it’s off a bit – it’s just one of those Radio Shack remote thermometers that transmits to an interior unit.  I know it’s within a degree or two of where it should be at around the freezing mark, simply due to the experience of seeing what its reporting and being outside when things are melting/not melting.  For me it’s just a rough reference to throw in the observations anyway, since I don’t track daily/monthly temperatures or anything like that.  I was surprised when I saw it reporting that temperature above freezing last night, but it seemed about right based on feel.  The air felt kind of dry despite the snowfall, and even if the temperature is a bit above freezing, we often seem to be able to accumulate with loft if the air is dry.

I was a hair above freezing in the 11-15 event with efficient accumulation too. No big deal, was just curious if you noticed anything. It definitely helps being cold just off the deck and having enough Td depression to keep the flakes intact.

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12 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Yeah it must....it doesn't snow at 34 degrees too often. 

What matters most is the temperature where the snow is forming.  To make it to the surface at temperatures above 32 F, all the flakes have to do is survive the trip through the above freezing temperatures.  It could be a mountain/climate/dry air thing though around here – but I’ve seen snow falling up to close around 40 F and certainly accumulating above the freezing mark.

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7 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

What matters most is the temperature where the snow is forming.  To make it to the surface at temperatures above 32 F, all the flakes have to do is survive the trip through the above freezing temperatures.  It could be a mountain/climate/dry air thing though around here – but I’ve seen snow falling up to close around 40 F and certainly accumulating above the freezing mark.

Yeah it can certainly snow with temps in the 30s, even low 40s if it’s very cold 1k up. 

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Not a lot of talk in the Feb thread about sunday, presumably because SNE is gonna mostly rn. What about up here? Looks like all sn for northern NE, but southern/central ME looks up in the air. Is this still trending cooler? Local mets have 3-6" then ZR/IP, but I don't trust the 3-6 and suspect it'll be more like 1-2" before the changeover.

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Alex and Lava,  going to be interesting to see how fast the secondary takes over to help lock in the cold air.  Quick look at the 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro look a bit warmer.  Still a stripe of snow from about me over up towards Alex and then much of Maine 25-50 miles away from coast. Enjoying a nice warm mid/upper 30's day.  The glaze from yesterday morning is keeping my pack from melting much.  So much energy to melt the surface ice.  Snowstake holding at 1 foot.

I am going to start feeding my deer some apples today.  They are struggling to walk through this stuff and we are now at 3 months and 1 week with constant snow pack.  I don't feed them deer food, I know that's a no no but watching them get thinner and struggling really bothers me.  I love winter and snow but I've had my 80" and wouldn't mind to close down winter now or better yet give it to the guys down south.

Webcam from this PM

Untitled.jpg

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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

Not a lot of talk in the Feb thread about sunday, presumably because SNE is gonna mostly rn. What about up here? Looks like all sn for northern NE, but southern/central ME looks up in the air. Is this still trending cooler? Local mets have 3-6" then ZR/IP, but I don't trust the 3-6 and suspect it'll be more like 1-2" before the changeover.

Afternoon discussion from GYX wasn't very encouraging.

Thus...have a snow to mix to rain scenario in the foothills and
points south
...with primarily snow in the mountains. The thrust
of precipitation favors a pretty quick hit...and have continued
to be cautious with QPF...with storm total values 0.4-0.7"
favored. Overall this suggests an advisory level event with 4-6"
of snow in the mountains and 1-3" of snow to the south of this.


P&C still shows 4-7 for our area, 12z GFS has mostly RA.   The snow tool still has 6" as "expected", down an inch from this morning.  1-3 followed by RA then bitter cold is the worst - return of the lumpy skating rink, augmented with 40 mph gusts and minus teens WCI plus blinding reflections from the almost-spring sun angle bouncing off the glare.   Can the CAD win, or at least hold the liquid to a draw?

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27 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Afternoon discussion from GYX wasn't very encouraging.

Thus...have a snow to mix to rain scenario in the foothills and
points south
...with primarily snow in the mountains. The thrust
of precipitation favors a pretty quick hit...and have continued
to be cautious with QPF...with storm total values 0.4-0.7"
favored. Overall this suggests an advisory level event with 4-6"
of snow in the mountains and 1-3" of snow to the south of this.


P&C still shows 4-7 for our area, 12z GFS has mostly RA.   The snow tool still has 6" as "expected", down an inch from this morning.  1-3 followed by RA then bitter cold is the worst - return of the lumpy skating rink, augmented with 40 mph gusts and minus teens WCI plus blinding reflections from the almost-spring sun angle bouncing off the glare.   Can the CAD win, or at least hold the liquid to a draw?

I'm not good at reading modes but I'm not sure I buy all snow in the mountains based on the current models. At least not in "my mountains" 

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1 hour ago, alex said:

@OceanStWx you guys should fix this in the grids. Just doing some QC'ing for you. :)

Sunday
Sunday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 4pm.
Sunday Night
Sunday night: Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all snow after 8pm. 

You really just want him to say the top one is the correct one. :P

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Looks like there could be some upslope snows here in the Greens tomorrow night into Monday. Unlike the failed events where it's just the 3 km NAM on board with its usual bogus orographic precipitation, the Euro and GFS seem to be showing it too (albeit to a lesser degree than the 3 km NAM). 

It will be a fast, unblocked flow so the snow may be of a more convective or streamer nature as opposed to more stratiform. Measuring will be pretty much impossible with the winds, should it occur.

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3 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Looks like there could be some upslope snows here in the Greens tomorrow night into Monday. Unlike the failed events where it's just the 3 km NAM on board with its usual bogus orographic precipitation, the Euro and GFS seem to be showing it too (albeit to a lesser degree than the 3 km NAM). 

It will be a fast, unblocked flow so the snow may be of a more convective or streamer nature as opposed to more stratiform. Measuring will be pretty much impossible with the winds, should it occur.

I haven't looked as closely at SVT, but from what I've seen for the northern half of the Greens is that the flow is too fast and the atmosphere is well mixed.  That means un-organized precipitation blowing way downstream...fast moving stuff, probably some graupel mixed in.  Snow showers and virga should carry quite a ways east.  I think accumulations will be minimal, 1-2" possible for the ski areas?

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Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.11” L.E.

 

We’ve got Winter Weather Advisories up in the area for some snow and mixed precipitation as part of this latest system, which has been named Winter Storm Quiana.  We’ve been in sort of a precipitation lull for a bit, but it looks like more will be moving in soon.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.11 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 8.2

Snow Density: 12.2% H2O

Temperature: 30.9 F

Sky:  Light Snow Grains

Snow at the stake: 30.5 inches

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On 2/22/2019 at 5:55 PM, alex said:

@OceanStWx you guys should fix this in the grids. Just doing some QC'ing for you. :)

Sunday
Sunday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 4pm.
Sunday Night
Sunday night: Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all snow after 8pm. 

I mean the P&C is garbage in these events anyway, but I know exactly how something like this happens. It's right at the transition between the short term forecast and the long term forecaster. The short term guy goes heavy on the detail and includes all pytpes, then magically at 00z Mon (Sunday night) the long term guy switches to less detail and just rain and/or snow showers as the only ptypes. So with temps near 34 (the default cutoff between all liquid and rain and snow) you went from ptypes transitioning to snow as the mid levels cool in the afternoon to a "warmer" looking ptype as surface temps continue to creep up.

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Took the kids and the dog for a walk at Diana's Baths. Very cool as always. Amazing to see the weather difference between home and the valley. Home was very blizzard like, heavy wind whipping snow everywhere, a snow sleet mix. Reminded me of the Midwest. On the other side of the notch it's a gentle snowfall with no wind whatsoever. 

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7BF21AB7-1706-4434-8FC0-C9BFEDD36163.jpeg

70AAB62E-BD90-4ABF-B2AE-BA025C21A0A3.jpeg

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