tamarack Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 47 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: https://news.gallup.com/poll/247910/one-third-blame-unusual-winter-temps-climate-change.aspx?wpisrc=nl_energy202&wpmm=1 Some soft respondents in the "east"? 34% saying a colder than normal winter despite the objective fact that it has not been colder than normal. Maybe cut some slack for Maine folks north of PWM - Farmington co-op was 0.4° BN for met winter compared to 1981-2010, and CAR was 1.1° BN. Can't offer the same for the many places that were AN with mediocre snowfall. On a related note: "Normals" are going to make a significant jump starting in 2021, when the cold 1981-90 period is replaced by the considerably less cold 2011-20. Possibly a full degree higher in most places, maybe more. Yeah, 10 degrees is insane, but under the right conditions from the far western part of Vernon to the highest point on 84 in Tolland you could see as much as a 4 degree F swing. There's like 600 ft elevation change there. Not just elevation. We had an evening meeting at our church in Farmington last month, and as we left the parking lot at 515' elev, the car thermometer read 27. As we turned on to Rt 2 at 375', temp was 20. 3.5 miles SE it was back up to 28 at 345' in Farmington Falls. Elevation remained 345-370 from there to the blinker light at the bridge in New Sharon while temp dropped to 22 then back to 24 in town. 2 miles north at our place (395') it was 20 - we always seem to lose 1-3° as we drive the 2,000 feet from the tar road to our driveway. It was a fairly still night after a breezy cold day, but the ups and downs were odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I can certainly see why there's a jackknifed semi every other day there during the winter. Has Ekster said anything about what he thinks for severe wx season this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, tamarack said: Maybe cut some slack for Maine folks north of PWM - Farmington co-op was 0.4° BN for met winter compared to 1981-2010, and CAR was 1.1° BN. Can't offer the same for the many places that were AN with mediocre snowfall. On a related note: "Normals" are going to make a significant jump starting in 2021, when the cold 1981-90 period is replaced by the considerably less cold 2011-20. Possibly a full degree higher in most places, maybe more. Speaking of normals, do they adjust departures from normal in previous years after they adjust what "normal" is? Or is that only valid for the 10 year period until a new set of normals are released? I started keeping records in 1985 and when I entered the data into Excel in the early 90s I was able to much more easily calculate what my normals were and after 2015 I had a set of 30 years of data. Every year I recalculate them and it automatically adjusts the departures based on that but I don't think that's how the NCDC does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Has Ekster said anything about what he thinks for severe wx season this year? He hasn't. If you're really interested in sub-seasonal severe weather prediction you should check out: http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: https://news.gallup.com/poll/247910/one-third-blame-unusual-winter-temps-climate-change.aspx?wpisrc=nl_energy202&wpmm=1 Some soft respondents in the "east"? 34% saying a colder than normal winter despite the objective fact that it has not been colder than normal. It all has to do with perception. The cold in the Midwest was all over the news and we did have a couple of 1-2 day cold waves that were colder than normal. I know there were a ton of record low maxes on a few days. I think people think of those days and just think the whole winter has been like that. They forget the breaks in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, MetHerb said: Speaking of normals, do they adjust departures from normal in previous years after they adjust what "normal" is? Or is that only valid for the 10 year period until a new set of normals are released? I started keeping records in 1985 and when I entered the data into Excel in the early 90s I was able to much more easily calculate what my normals were and after 2015 I had a set of 30 years of data. Every year I recalculate them and it automatically adjusts the departures based on that but I don't think that's how the NCDC does it. I think the 30-year "normal" period gets updated at 10-year intervals. Thus the 1981-2010 norms will update to 1991-2020 as we enter 2021. In your case, if you wanted to parallel the "official" method, you'd need to cease the continuous updating at the end of 2020 while cutting out data prior to 1991. My data here began in mid-May 1998 with continuous updating, so I won't face that decision until 2031. However, I think 30 years to be too short a period, and if I'm still recording data then (a couple months shy of turning 85), I'll probably continue doing it the same way as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, MetHerb said: Speaking of normals, do they adjust departures from normal in previous years after they adjust what "normal" is? Or is that only valid for the 10 year period until a new set of normals are released? I started keeping records in 1985 and when I entered the data into Excel in the early 90s I was able to much more easily calculate what my normals were and after 2015 I had a set of 30 years of data. Every year I recalculate them and it automatically adjusts the departures based on that but I don't think that's how the NCDC does it. It depends on what exactly is being done with the data, but for NWS purposes the normals continue to change with the base period. That way we're comparing actual departures from normal for that base period, rather than the 1880s departures always getting colder relative to the new published normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 minute ago, tamarack said: I think the 30-year "normal" period gets updated at 10-year intervals. Thus the 1981-2010 norms will update to 1991-2020 as we enter 2021. In your case, if you wanted to parallel the "official" method, you'd need to cease the continuous updating at the end of 2020 while cutting out data prior to 1991. My data here began in mid-May 1998 with continuous updating, so I won't face that decision until 2031. However, I think 30 years to be too short a period, and if I'm still recording data then (a couple months shy of turning 85), I'll probably continue doing it the same way as before. I just decided to keep going. I agree that 30 years is too short a period and since it's for my own records, I'll just do it the way that works for me. I like being able to look a month's worth of data and determine just how far off the long term record it really was. I'm only 50 so I'll probably get to a point where my departures will stand out because the record by the time I'm 85 will be almost 70 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: He hasn't. If you're really interested in sub-seasonal severe weather prediction you should check out: http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/ This is sick. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, MetHerb said: It all has to do with perception. The cold in the Midwest was all over the news and we did have a couple of 1-2 day cold waves that were colder than normal. I know there were a ton of record low maxes on a few days. I think people think of those days and just think the whole winter has been like that. They forget the breaks in between. Perception has a lot to do with it, and some studies have shown that humans ability to remember past year's conditions may only be on the order of 2-5 years on average. Meaning that just about every winter will be perceived as colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 minute ago, MetHerb said: I just decided to keep going. I agree that 30 years is too short a period and since it's for my own records, I'll just do it the way that works for me. I like being able to look a month's worth of data and determine just how far off the long term record it really was. I'm only 50 so I'll probably get to a point where my departures will stand out because the record by the time I'm 85 will be almost 70 years. There's value in continuous and consistent record keeping. That's why, when I joined cocorahs in 2009 and began 7 AM obs, I continued my 9 PM obs time used since moving to Fort Kent on New Year's Day in 1976. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It depends on what exactly is being done with the data, but for NWS purposes the normals continue to change with the base period. That way we're comparing actual departures from normal for that base period, rather than the 1880s departures always getting colder relative to the new published normals. That's true. What if the entire period was used (1880-2019)? Wouldn't the departure be relative to the overall normal for the site? Wouldn't that allow for longer term dry/wet or warm/cool periods to be smoothed out? I'm just thinking if you have a decades long period of anomalous weather, it's a third of your "normal" period and wouldn't it throw off the record when things aren't as anomalous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, MetHerb said: That's true. What if the entire period was used (1880-2019)? Wouldn't the departure be relative to the overall normal for the site? Wouldn't that allow for longer term dry/wet or warm/cool periods to be smoothed out? I'm just thinking if you have a decades long period of anomalous weather, it's a third of your "normal" period and wouldn't it throw off the record when things aren't as anomalous? But, as I said above, our perception of what normal actually is a relatively short period. It probably is more relevant to explain normals in a smaller chunk of time than the whole period of record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Happy Worm Moon Goons! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Two more signs of spring: Kennebec ice is running in Augusta today, though it might take a few more days downriver where the currents are less. And yesterday there were a dozen Canada geese at the Rt 27 bridge over Belgrade Stream. As Aldo Leopold noted in "A Sand County Almanac", northbound geese invest hundreds of flying miles on the proposition that their destination will be ready for occupancy, and being wrong can be fatal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 KCRQ's average high from December 29 to March 4 is 64...then it randomly drops to 63 for 5 days then finishes March at 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 wtf are you looking at? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I mean why are you even looking at that site? lol Seems like pretty typical south coastal Cali climo to me. Days and days of boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 30 minutes ago, dendrite said: I mean why are you even looking at that site? lol Seems like pretty typical south coastal Cali climo to me. Days and days of boring. Nice climate for those with little/no interest in weather. Dead zone for forecasters - put out the month's forecast on the 1st, then go do something that might make a difference until the 1st of next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Anyone here have recommendations for a well water filter? The house we are buying is well water and I’ve never lived anywhere with well water in my life. Currently no filtration system in the house. Looking for something decently cheap, as I simply don’t have the money to spend on a high end system. Under 1k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 15 hours ago, dendrite said: I mean why are you even looking at that site? lol Seems like pretty typical south coastal Cali climo to me. Days and days of boring. ahhh...one of the cities I forecast for. But yeah...pretty much days and days of boring. Only "excitement" is any fog potential lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: ahhh...one of the cities I forecast for. But yeah...pretty much days and days of boring. Only "excitement" is any fog potential lol oh cool. I thought you were just looking at random places for no particular reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: oh cool. I thought you were just looking at random places for no particular reason. There is something quite interesting about the location though which I noticed last summer. I wonder if there is a huge temperature gradient (or if one can occur) between the airport and like 5 miles farther inland. They had heat advisories last summer, but the airport was only getting temps in the lower 80's with dews around 60. I wonder if you go like 5-10 miles farther inland the temps can soar into the 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 6z MAV had 51F for CON today. lol #drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 I hate missing snow but getting very little QPF yesterday/overnight and now windy and partly sunny has started drying things out nicely. Maybe start doing some clean-up on the snowless side of the yard tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I hate missing snow but getting very little QPF yesterday/overnight and now windy and partly sunny has started drying things out nicely. Maybe start doing some clean-up on the snowless side of the yard tomorrow. I can’t wait for everything to dry out. The next two weeks are dreadful until it thaws and dries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I can’t wait for everything to dry out. The next two weeks are dreadful until it thaws and dries Should be a pretty good stretch coming up for steady, slow snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2019 Author Share Posted March 23, 2019 If not for the 1.20” and 1/2” of snow, my lawn was good to go for cleanup. No mud, and firm to walk on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 Peepers making a bit of noise here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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