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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE


Baroclinic Zone
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Not going to lie, this looks like it'll be a solid cold rain event.  It's sneaky wet up here now, and I don't like when the mountains get into higher PWATs.  But it's also cold.  SFC temps have started to rise faster with the freezing rain.  There were a few showers that were good moderate bursts of water at temps in the 20s.  Snowpack is glazed and it better warm up sufficiently to melt the roads off.  It's been so cold that road salt and traffic have been inefficient.  Add in some brief snow, then sleet and now ZR.  It's slick.

Those monthly and seasonal model forecasts that had wetter than normal conditions along the east coast this winter were spot on.  It's certainly been a steady stream of moisture for months.  You just pray there's some cold air around when the weekly high-QPF event takes place.

buiu1sW.gif

 

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not going to lie, this looks like it'll be a solid cold rain event.  It's sneaky wet up here now, and I don't like when the mountains get into higher PWATs.  But it's also cold.  SFC temps have started to rise faster with the freezing rain.  There were a few showers that were good moderate bursts of water at temps in the 20s.  Snowpack is glazed and it better warm up sufficiently to melt the roads off.  It's been so cold that road salt and traffic have been inefficient.  Add in some brief snow, then sleet and now ZR.  It's slick.

Those monthly and seasonal model forecasts that had wetter than normal conditions along the east coast this winter were spot on.  It's certainly been a steady stream of moisture for months.  You just pray there's some cold air around when the weekly high-QPF event takes place.

buiu1sW.gif

 

When we aren't suppressed, the gradient this winter has run just below NNE to just above.  

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Not going to lie, this looks like it'll be a solid cold rain event.  It's sneaky wet up here now, and I don't like when the mountains get into higher PWATs.  But it's also cold.  SFC temps have started to rise faster with the freezing rain.  There were a few showers that were good moderate bursts of water at temps in the 20s.  Snowpack is glazed and it better warm up sufficiently to melt the roads off.  It's been so cold that road salt and traffic have been inefficient.  Add in some brief snow, then sleet and now ZR.  It's slick.

Those monthly and seasonal model forecasts that had wetter than normal conditions along the east coast this winter were spot on.  It's certainly been a steady stream of moisture for months.  You just pray there's some cold air around when the weekly high-QPF event takes place.

buiu1sW.gif

 

 

Don't get me going!   This looks like rain to Montreal.  I'm ok with rain in Greenfield but when it is Jan 23rd and every ski area 80-100 mi  N & W of my house is getting rain I start to get a little agitated.

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Interesting winter ...  

We've commiserated the rain-freeze pattern ... many times in the past, but having a high temperature of 4F and then 3" of rain at 52 hardly two days later with zippo winter fall during transition is a uniquely horrifying achievement - definitely transcends if you're a winter enthusiast.  

This may actually be the most vivid realization of the cold to rain flop I have personally ever witnessed.   hm

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Was just surveying the vast flooding of the stream in the backyard at 54f and thinking, gee, can it really get any better than this on January 24th? Deep, deep winter. Next fropa on Tuesday followed by more deep cold and surely the next warm up. Right out of the best decade ever.

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Was just surveying the vast flooding of the stream in the backyard at 54f and thinking, gee, can it really get any better than this on January 24th? Deep, deep winter. Next fropa on Tuesday followed by more deep cold and surely the next warm up. Right out of the best decade ever.

 

 

 

 

Mullets, White Snake, and knee high socks with colored stripes. 

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mullets, White Snake, and knee high socks with colored stripes. 

Have to admit however, there are probably a few hidden gems in this pattern, so it wouldn't surprise me to wake up one morning over the next several days to see a threat has suddenly emerged. This pattern has that feel to it. We've been bludgeoned to death already, time is running out on some pay-dirt.

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7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting winter ...  

We've commiserated the rain-freeze pattern ... many times in the past, but having a high temperature of 4F and then 3" of rain at 52 hardly two days later with zippo winter fall during transition is a uniquely horrifying achievement - definitely transcends if you're a winter enthusiast.  

This may actually be the most vivid realization of the cold to rain flop I have personally ever witnessed.   hm

Okay yeah it sucks but how about those weeklies. I hear the fabled -NAO may finally come out of hiding. 

Or you know we could just rinse, wash, and repeat. Fun times ahead!

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1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

And it is finally happening. LaGuardia shut down due to staffing shortage, Newark and Phil suffering major delays

According to CNN, not exactly a shutdown but a "ground stop" - they are keeping short-route arrivals on the ground at their respective airports until the current jam (in air and on LGA taxi lanes, I guess) is cleared up.  Full shutdowns may be in the offing, however, unless Congress/WH get their act together. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

4 yrs ago. On the verge of the greatest winter many of us have and perhaps will ever see. 

I remember the anticipation of every model run that Sunday before the blizzard. The previous Saturday night had locked in the big solution for at least he eastern half of SNE. The only question left on Sunday was how much...18 or 30+. That's when it gets really fun...you aren't worried about whiffing at that point or tainting. You are solely focused on where the goodies will set up that decides whether it's "merely" a really good KU or a top 5er. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember the anticipation of every model run that Sunday before the blizzard. The previous Saturday night had locked in the big solution for at least he eastern half of SNE. The only question left on Sunday was how much...18 or 30+. That's when it gets really fun...you aren't worried about whiffing at that point or tainting. You are solely focused on where the goodies will set up that decides whether it's "merely" a really good KU or a top 5er. 

I know it. Best feeling ever. You are going to get crushed, just a matter of getting run over by a dump truck or a front end loader. :lol:      

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