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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE


Baroclinic Zone
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38.8° F for the high today. Still about 12-14" of snow OTG, with an average 12.5-13" that is now beginning to crust over. Currently at 32.7° F.

I'm thinking we get a couple of sleety snow inches tomorrow PM with maybe upslope on Monday. The NAM has is pretty strong signal even down here.

Deep, deep winter. Now if we can only do something about that effing cutter Grinch storm on D5-6. They've pretty much become an annual rite of passage, unfortunately.

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17 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

38.8° F for the high today. Still about 12-14" of snow OTG, with an average 12.5-13" that is now beginning to crust over. Currently at 32.7° F.

I'm thinking we get a couple of sleety snow inches tomorrow PM with maybe upslope on Monday. The NAM has is pretty strong signal even down here.

Deep, deep winter. Now if we can only do something about that effing cutter Grinch storm on D5-6. They've pretty much become an annual rite of passage, unfortunately.

Today was progged to be 2" of rain at 50F a week out...I've never seen a cutter get beat down like that and turn into like 12-18 hours in the 30s with next to no melting.

Heck the snow didn't even melt/fall off the trees at the mountain so it still has that caked look in the higher elevations. 

Hopefully we can do something about the cutter next Friday.  

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One of our dog rescue board of directors owns Elizabeths Farmhouse restaurant in Putnam Ct. Its a converted rail station. Today she cooked a full Christmas buffet for the board members and spouses. Off the hook fantastic top end food. Creme Brulee french toast, eggs, bacon,  kielbasa, ham, small red potatoes home fries,. Ever in the area check it out. 

20181216_103354.jpg

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

One of our dog rescue board of directors owns Elizabeths Farmhouse restaurant in Putnam Ct. Its a converted rail station. Today she cooked a full Christmas buffet for the board members and spouses. Off the hook fantastic top end food. Creme Brulee french toast, eggs, bacon,  kielbasa, ham, small red potatoes home fries,. Ever in the area check it out. 

20181216_103354.jpg

Good for you for rescues! Most would agree, animals are better then people..............what a hearty breakfast!

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51 minutes ago, 512high said:

Good for you for rescues! Most would agree, animals are better then people..............what a hearty breakfast!

Thanks its a passion, there have been 1200 rescues in 3 years by the 24 people in that room today. Oh and desert.. Food was incredible. Top end place. http://www.elizabethsfarmhouse.com

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So similarly to the NWS spring forecast contest (choosing severe weather type and location), they are debuting a winter forecast contest (mid Jan through the end of March). What is interesting about this contest is it will be much more probabilistic. You will forecast the mode of the snowfall (most likely forecast), then adjust the 10th/90th percentile tails. Your score will be proportional to the likelihood of the observed snowfall to that curve you create. 

For instance, if you forecast a mode of 12" and the 90th percentile is 13", and you get 14" your curve probably predicts a very low likelihood of that happening (single digit % chance). If you really thought 12" was most likely, your 90th percentile tail should be out near say 20". This is a pretty common "failure" of the current NWS snow probabilities. 

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Will would recognize that as sort of what Wilks used to do with the Cornell forecast contest. Rather than forecast a single QPF amount, you forecast a range of totals. The wider the range the more like you are to hit, but the smaller your potential score. The narrower the range the more likely you were to miss, but the higher potential score.

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Meant to post this last week... but Ski Patrol was tasked with shoveling off the Cliff House deck (top of the Gondola at Stowe). 

Given the incredible early season snowfall, the deck had drifted about 10-15 feet deep.  The deck level is even with the floor of the restaurant, and you can see how high up that Ski Patroller is.  Guess you have to start digging somewhere, dig straight down to find the deck and then work it from there.  Took a couple days to clear it.

The restaurant manager posted this pic to social...

vGbfUiq.jpg

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