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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Ah, Ones that produced snow that actually tracked favorably for the region? Miller A's, Miller B's,  MECS, HECS? I knew what he meant, We have had plenty of over running events with the primary going thru the lakes or Upstate NY.

We've had a few good lows this season that tracked along the coast between Cape May and PWM...but they cut over SNE/BOS and the snow soundings were well NW.  

The storm last week was also a coastal that crushed Scooter.  

Unless by coastal we are talking storms that crush from me to Scooter and everywhere in between then there are plenty of years that don't see that.  

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We've had a few good lows this season that tracked along the coast between Cape May and PWM...but they cut over SNE/BOS and the snow soundings were well NW.  

The storm last week was also a coastal that crushed Scooter.  

Unless by coastal we are talking storms that crush from me to Scooter and everywhere in between then there are plenty of years that don't see that.  

There has not been one single coastal storm that has produced 12" of snow up here in this area this season, That is rare, Huggers and runners sure, We have had some this season, You should know, You have been the beneficiary of them, But for you and scooter to get whacked on a true coastal for snow, The circulation would have to be quite broad, But i don't think anything taking a track 50-100 miles off the coast of any significance is not going to benefit your area, But would have delivered 12"+ here.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Inverted today....rotting at 43F and overcast.

 

Ditto...43F

I was worried when I saw the first few vis images today and winds being light. Looks like it'll clear out in time for sunset. WNE is making a run for 60F in the lower els.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Ditto...43F

I was worried when I saw the first few vis images today and winds being light. Looks like it'll clear out in time for sunset. WNE is making a run for 60F in the lower els.

Yeah the high today might be in the evening. We basically lost an afternoon of a real torch though....snowpack might not be wiped out over interior now...not that it was ever going to happen in your 'hood...but a bit further south I thought it might.

Extended mud season FTL.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the high today might be in the evening. We basically lost an afternoon of a real torch though....snowpack might not be wiped out over interior now...not that it was ever going to happen in your 'hood...but a bit further south I thought it might.

Extended mud season FTL.

If any possible big storms fail, next week will at least freeze it up at night and give us minor loss during the day...especially in sun exposed spots. So at least we can lose the pack slowly......

...at a medium pace.

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13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There has not been one single coastal storm that has produced 12" of snow up here in this area this season, That is rare, Huggers and runners sure, We have had some this season, You should know, You have been the beneficiary of them, But for you and scooter to get whacked on a true coastal for snow, The circulation would have to be quite broad, But i don't think anything taking a track 50-100 miles off the coast of any significance is not going to benefit your area, But would have delivered 12"+ here.

Yeah I was just trying to say there have been a few coastal lows, they just haven't panned out for you guys up there.  Odd for you not to have 1 event of 12"+ as that's the bread and butter of the coastal plain.  

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah I was just trying to say there have been a few coastal lows, they just haven't panned out for you guys up there.  Odd for you not to have 1 event of 12"+ as that's the bread and butter of the coastal plain.  

Yes, Very odd indeed.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like I recall a nor'easter in December that blessed us with temps too warm to snow. I wanna say it was a perfect track otherwise....just a shit airmass. Maybe it was early Jan or something...idr.

Dec 16th I think had a warm Nor' Easter...there was some marginal snow up in CNE, but it couldve been a lot bigger right down into SNE if there was even a semi-competent airmass in place.

Most of the coastals this year have been hideous anyway from a developmental standpoint. We haven't seen very nice linked WCB/CCB flow...lots of disjointed conveyors....even on amped storms, like we'd see a WCB smashing into NNE as snow, but the actual CCB is way disjointed and usually weak back north of lake Huron or something.

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30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I was just trying to say there have been a few coastal lows, they just haven't panned out for you guys up there.  Odd for you not to have 1 event of 12"+ as that's the bread and butter of the coastal plain.  

Would like to have seen one event with warning criteria snowfall and no mixing - had 7"+ snows in Nov, Jan, Feb, and all 3 have mixed, though it took IP pounding at -2 for the Jan. event to miss.  Kind of like 2014-15 in that all the ingredients were in place for a historic winter here, but didn't quite come together - the decent systems mainly too far east in 14-15 (except for the 2" of 33-34 RA in Dec) and too close this winter.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I feel like I recall a nor'easter in December that blessed us with temps too warm to snow. I wanna say it was a perfect track otherwise....just a shit airmass. Maybe it was early Jan or something...idr.

Neither do i if its not snow.

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High of 47.8° F even with nearly full sunshine this afternoon, but we are starting to get some high cirrus now though. The valleys were in the upper 50s to near 60. It actually felt a little hot in the sun, since I was dressed for 40-42° F and overcast like it was prior to noon.

The roads are getting soft and muddy today. They were still hard this morning, but the sun and snowmelt has softened the roads to the point where you get those ruts. Therefore, I declare today the beginning of mud season.

Tentatively, I'd give this winter a C+. Novie was epic (especially with that 2 footer I had right after Turkey Day), but December was a ratter. January was decent, but nothing special. February and March have been disappointing with nothing over 6". We had no measurable snow for 2 weeks in early February, which must be a hard feat to pull off up here.

At least we've had a steady, uninterrupted snow pack and no mega February torches like the past two seasons. The hard snow pack has been good for snow mobiling, and the ski areas got a good base established early.

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Just now, wxmanmitch said:

The roads are getting soft and muddy today. They were still hard this morning, but the sun and snowmelt has softened the roads to the point where you get those ruts. Therefore, I declare today the beginning of mud season.

Tentatively, I'd give this winter a C+. Novie was epic (especially with that 2 footer I had right after Turkey Day), but December was a ratter. January was decent, but nothing special. February and March have been disappointing with nothing over 6". We had no measurable snow for 2 weeks in early February, which must be a hard feat to pull off up here.

At least we've had a steady, uninterrupted snow pack and no mega February torches like the past two seasons. The hard snow pack has been good for snow mobiling, and the ski areas got a good base established early.

Posters went up yesterday on our gravel road, and on many others, paved or not.  Should be a slimy weekend on the 2,000' between the tar and our driveway.  Fortunately, the material on our road is such that it becomes solid for light traffic once the frost is gone from the top 4-6".  That won't happen for at least 2 more weeks, however.  Meanwhile the woodlots on major (thus unposted) roads will begin to see more activity.

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