The Iceman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I kind of agree with this. I can easily see an extended suppressed pattern then a 7 day window of opportunity when it finally relaxes. EPS weeklies and CFS have been hinting at this. Like you, I also hope I'm wrong. I think it all depends how the next storm shakes out. If it comes north, then we will be heading into a pattern that will likely feature storms that do the same. If it is suppressed, then we are in for suppression city cold and dry and a hope and a prayer that we score before the pattern flips again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Was thinking earlier how I personally categorize winter storms...plus I'm bored. For me there are the nuisance c-2" types followed by 2-7". Next bar is 7-14". Then the rare stuff 14-24" .... and the creme de la creme 24"+ I guess when I'm tracking that's how I break them down in my own mind. The c-2 is like cool it's going to snow but not really worth me getting overly excited over or losing sleep. Then the 2-7" the interest level is there but again I'm not running out for milk and bread and getting all googly eyed like Gritty. Some sleep may be lost to model watching but not much. Whether a 2-4/3-6/4-7 they all generally feel the same for me. Gotta shovel but not worth putting unnecessary energy into. Things improve significantly when we enter MECS range which for me is 7-14"....again there isnt a whole lots of diff between whether I pull the snowblower out for the bottom or top of that range. The impact and personal reward is basically the same and well worth the hours of tracking and energy put in. 14-24" of HECS is a dream but again I dont dwell on whether its low end or high end of that range. It's a general categorical range that is not very often seen so I just savor the heck out of it. Much sleep is lost to tracking especially as lead times shrink. Then the 24"+ BECS there really just isnt words for. Alot of coffee is consumed sometimes alot of booze and sleep deprivation is real. My wife has used the term 'deliriously snow-drunk' before. Guess my point to this is I dont get all caught up in the over analyzing (especially with lower total ranges) between whether one model shows 1-3" but the other shows 2-4" etc. Just like if a model showed 6-10" vs 8-12". I crack up when seeing posts analyzing every fraction of an inch difference. In the grand scheme do those nuances really make a world of difference (for Joe public not pro forecasters)? Maybe they do and I'm the oddball lol....I wont debate that. So does anyone else categorize their forecast snow amounts any similar to this? Ie base them on impacts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Was thinking earlier how I personally categorize winter storms...plus I'm bored. For me there are the nuisance c-2" types followed by 2-7". Next bar is 7-14". Then the rare stuff 14-24" .... and the creme de la creme 24"+ I guess when I'm tracking that's how I break them down in my own mind. The c-2 is like cool it's going to snow but not really worth me getting overly excited over or losing sleep. Then the 2-7" the interest level is there but again I'm not running out for milk and bread and getting all googly eyed like Gritty. Some sleep may be lost to model watching but not much. Whether a 2-4/3-6/4-7 they all generally feel the same for me. Gotta shovel but not worth putting unnecessary energy into. Things improve significantly when we enter MECS range which for me is 7-14"....again there isnt a whole lots of diff between whether I pull the snowblower out for the bottom or top of that range. The impact and personal reward is basically the same and well worth the hours of tracking and energy put in. 14-24" of HECS is a dream but again I dont dwell on whether its low end or high end of that range. It's a general categorical range that is not very often seen so I just savor the heck out of it. Much sleep is lost to tracking especially as lead times shrink. Then the 24"+ BECS there really just isnt words for. Alot of coffee is consumed sometimes alot of booze and sleep deprivation is real. My wife has used the term 'deliriously snow-drunk' before. Guess my point to this is I dont get all caught up in the over analyzing (especially with lower total ranges) between whether one model shows 1-3" but the other shows 2-4" etc. Just like if a model showed 6-10" vs 8-12". I crack up when seeing posts analyzing every fraction of an inch difference. In the grand scheme do those nuances really make a world of difference (for Joe public not pro forecasters)? Maybe they do and I'm the oddball lol....I wont debate that. So does anyone else categorize their forecast snow amounts any similar to this? Ie base them on impacts? Steve that's a good list - for me my interest is high for anything over 4" which in this area I consider "plowable" Anything over 6" is Significant Over 10" is Major But any snow is good snow to track in my opinion.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Was thinking earlier how I personally categorize winter storms...plus I'm bored. For me there are the nuisance c-2" types followed by 2-7". Next bar is 7-14". Then the rare stuff 14-24" .... and the creme de la creme 24"+ I guess when I'm tracking that's how I break them down in my own mind. The c-2 is like cool it's going to snow but not really worth me getting overly excited over or losing sleep. Then the 2-7" the interest level is there but again I'm not running out for milk and bread and getting all googly eyed like Gritty. Some sleep may be lost to model watching but not much. Whether a 2-4/3-6/4-7 they all generally feel the same for me. Gotta shovel but not worth putting unnecessary energy into. Things improve significantly when we enter MECS range which for me is 7-14"....again there isnt a whole lots of diff between whether I pull the snowblower out for the bottom or top of that range. The impact and personal reward is basically the same and well worth the hours of tracking and energy put in. 14-24" of HECS is a dream but again I dont dwell on whether its low end or high end of that range. It's a general categorical range that is not very often seen so I just savor the heck out of it. Much sleep is lost to tracking especially as lead times shrink. Then the 24"+ BECS there really just isnt words for. Alot of coffee is consumed sometimes alot of booze and sleep deprivation is real. My wife has used the term 'deliriously snow-drunk' before. Guess my point to this is I dont get all caught up in the over analyzing (especially with lower total ranges) between whether one model shows 1-3" but the other shows 2-4" etc. Just like if a model showed 6-10" vs 8-12". I crack up when seeing posts analyzing every fraction of an inch difference. In the grand scheme do those nuances really make a world of difference (for Joe public not pro forecasters)? Maybe they do and I'm the oddball lol....I wont debate that. So does anyone else categorize their forecast snow amounts any similar to this? Ie base them on impacts? Yeah I'm the same, that's why I'm glad we stay separate in our own little forum. There is not much nitpicking every little detail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 27 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Yeah I'm the same, that's why I'm glad we stay separate in our own little forum. There is not much nitpicking every little detail. I tend to think of snow amounts and how it impacts skiing conditions. A 4-8" would be a big help in getting my hill opened. 1-2" is barely noticeable. 4-7" inches helps freshen things up. 8-12 is true powder conditions. !2"+ and it starts getting hard to go fast down most beginner slopes. 24"+ is when you can start going over cliff and expect a soft landing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Was thinking earlier how I personally categorize winter storms...plus I'm bored. For me there are the nuisance c-2" types followed by 2-7". Next bar is 7-14". Then the rare stuff 14-24" .... and the creme de la creme 24"+ I guess when I'm tracking that's how I break them down in my own mind. The c-2 is like cool it's going to snow but not really worth me getting overly excited over or losing sleep. Then the 2-7" the interest level is there but again I'm not running out for milk and bread and getting all googly eyed like Gritty. Some sleep may be lost to model watching but not much. Whether a 2-4/3-6/4-7 they all generally feel the same for me. Gotta shovel but not worth putting unnecessary energy into. Things improve significantly when we enter MECS range which for me is 7-14"....again there isnt a whole lots of diff between whether I pull the snowblower out for the bottom or top of that range. The impact and personal reward is basically the same and well worth the hours of tracking and energy put in. 14-24" of HECS is a dream but again I dont dwell on whether its low end or high end of that range. It's a general categorical range that is not very often seen so I just savor the heck out of it. Much sleep is lost to tracking especially as lead times shrink. Then the 24"+ BECS there really just isnt words for. Alot of coffee is consumed sometimes alot of booze and sleep deprivation is real. My wife has used the term 'deliriously snow-drunk' before. Guess my point to this is I dont get all caught up in the over analyzing (especially with lower total ranges) between whether one model shows 1-3" but the other shows 2-4" etc. Just like if a model showed 6-10" vs 8-12". I crack up when seeing posts analyzing every fraction of an inch difference. In the grand scheme do those nuances really make a world of difference (for Joe public not pro forecasters)? Maybe they do and I'm the oddball lol....I wont debate that. So does anyone else categorize their forecast snow amounts any similar to this? Ie base them on impacts? For snow I classify c-2 nuisance, 2-6 is solid event, 6-12 is SECS, 12-24 is MECS, 24+ is BECS. similar to yours. I get Gritty excited for anything over 2 inches though so that's where we differ. For sleet inch or less who cares, 1-3" solid event travel definitely impacted, 3-6+" major event. Roads paralyzed in places. I would love another Vday 07, that storm was so epic even though it was 90% sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 In a winter like this I look specifically for HECS and more importantly BECS. Some people just want light snows just to say they have seen snow, but I could care less for a 2-4" snowfall. Give me a 24"+ long duration storm or bust. On a side note, this winter has left me speechless with anger and rage lol. In many other winters we find ways to steal snow. This year we're getting caught red-handed by the weather police trying to steal a meager 2-4" event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Were living in the payback years for 2010-2015 period it had to come 2016-2019 A one storm winter, a big dud, a late winter with melty snow in the strong sun angle and now this abomination. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 You can feel there will be one big storm coming probably in February that will prevent an unmitigated disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 yeah this once thought of Epic winter pattern is going off the rails, now we have another storm showing up the long range? best not get to excited they haven't worked out so far, one thing is certain it'll surely rain when go above normal temp wise. UGH I guess we still have a ways to go though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: You can feel there will be one big storm coming probably in February that will prevent an unmitigated disaster 3rd week of Feb big 10"+ snow event as the overwhelmingly cold and dry pattern relaxes. Melts in two days as temps rollercoaster up to mid 60s. Then cool and wet thru mid/late April. That's the gut feel I'm getting nothing scientific to it just thinking out loud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 I know it wont go down like this but only during this winter of 2019 during peak climo with a bitter cold air mass just to the N and a near perfect storm track would we get a look like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Remember when we had a stretch of model runs like this a few days ago irt this weekend's system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: I tend to think of snow amounts and how it impacts skiing conditions. A 4-8" would be a big help in getting my hill opened. 1-2" is barely noticeable. 4-7" inches helps freshen things up. 8-12 is true powder conditions. !2"+ and it starts getting hard to go fast down most beginner slopes. 24"+ is when you can start going over cliff and expect a soft landing Making snow yet??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Making snow yet??? Yes, we managed to make snow two nights this week. Re-opening should happen Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know it wont go down like this but only during this winter of 2019 during peak climo with a bitter cold air mass just to the N and a near perfect storm track would we get a look like this: Yup you can lock that for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know it wont go down like this but only during this winter of 2019 during peak climo with a bitter cold air mass just to the N and a near perfect storm track would we get a look like this: Check out the GFS#2 at hour 330 for more hilarity as a southern ice storm is snow to mix here with the low exiting east off hatteras but that is only after another snow ice event in the south just days after our next rainstorm lol lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Check out the GFS#2 at hour 330 for more hilarity as a southern ice storm is snow to mix here with the low exiting east off hatteras but that is only after another snow ice event in the south just days after our next rainstorm lol lock it in GFS and FVR2D2 have been performing horribly for about the past 10-14 days. I read an article tying that in with the govt shutdown and lack of Calibrated data being entered but I cannot confirm 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS and FVR2D2 have been performing horribly for about the past 10-14 days. I read an article tying that in with the govt shutdown and lack of Calibrated data being entered but I cannot confirm 100%. Speaking of the government and weather-- where's MGorse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 54 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Yup you can lock that for sure The 18z is weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: The 18z is weak sauce. Ens signal much stronger at 18z FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: Speaking of the government and weather-- where's MGorse? Working for free? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 17 hours ago, RedSky said: Were living in the payback years for 2010-2015 period it had to come 2016-2019 A one storm winter, a big dud, a late winter with melty snow in the strong sun angle and now this abomination. It's funny, my totals each year you'd think I'd had an amazing winter the last few years. But those totals largely came in 2 week periods and the rest of winter sucked. ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Couple more days to complete the worst first half of winter in my lifetime i can taste it. No accumulation and no flakes without rain mixed in. Even if i scrape 1" tonight it is still the worst unmitigated disaster of a lifetime can't think of another. Oh yeah the 15" rain is the topper to make sure it can never be beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 It has snowed south of me for hundreds of miles. It has accumulated as close as 5 miles to my west. It has snowed to the north of me. It has probably snowed in the ocean to my east. This is it my Plan 9 From Outer Space of a Winter. Champion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Couple more days to complete the worst first half of winter in my lifetime i can taste it. No accumulation and no flakes without rain mixed in. Even if i scrape 1" tonight it is still the worst unmitigated disaster of a lifetime can't think of another. Oh yeah the 15" rain is the topper to make sure it can never be beat. Where exactly are you located now and for the most part? Quakertown (which is usually good) or Howell (I have no idea)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Where exactly are you located now and for the most part? Quakertown (which is usually good) or Howell (I have no idea)... Howell or as i call it Death Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I think i have a few comrades left in this first half of ultimate misery, Boston. Last i heard they only have a couple inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: Howell or as i call it Death Valley My condolences. Holy crap I just looked on the map (didn't know exactly where Howell is located) but yeah, you're beyond screwed. Is this permanent? If so, start thinking about a new hobby for snow although T-storms may be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: My condolences. Holy crap I just looked on the map (didn't know exactly where Howell is located) but yeah, you're beyond screwed. Is this permanent? If so, start thinking about a new hobby for snow although T-storms may be decent. I have multiple family members out here. Over the years in Qtown they owned me in most of the big snows lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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