Rtd208 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 In groundhog we trust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 #winterisover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Saw a report this morning: since Dec 1, DC has had more snow than Philly, NYC and Boston combined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Look, there goes a unicorn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 Why is Doctor No (ECMWF) such a Debbie Downer? Seriously....how can almost every model show a SECS/MECS then the second Dr No barges in the room and says 'not so fast' all other guidance stops in their tracks and start to backpedal towards the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Why is Doctor No (ECMWF) such a Debbie Downer? Seriously....how can almost every model show a SECS/MECS then the second Dr No barges in the room and says 'not so fast' all other guidance stops in their tracks and start to backpedal towards the Euro? Dr. No is a buzz kill. Hasn't it been pretty off lately in the medium/long range for our area as of late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Latest Wxsim with 6z data shows 0.81" of rain later today and tonight and then a couple of potential winter events early next week. Current WXSIM shows up to 2" snow on Sun Night into Mon Am and then a bigger storm with a combo of Snow and Sleet for Tuesday night into Wed AM with between 4" to 6" of accumulation here in Chester County PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 42 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Latest Wxsim with 6z data shows 0.81" of rain later today and tonight and then a couple of potential winter events early next week. Current WXSIM shows up to 2" snow on Sun Night into Mon Am and then a bigger storm with a combo of Snow and Sleet for Tuesday night into Wed AM with between 4" to 6" of accumulation here in Chester County PA Not a huge fan of seeing wxsim signaling mixing even well n and w with elevation. Expectations tempered severely for now. Yeah models look ok....just ok honestly. It's a fine line. And being 6 days out still there is ALOT that can go wrong to muck up the fragile setup we r seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not a huge fan of seeing wxsim signaling mixing even well n and w with elevation. Expectations tempered severely for now. Yeah models look ok....just ok honestly. It's a fine line. And being 6 days out still there is ALOT that can go wrong to muck up the fragile setup we r seeing. symptom of zero blocking. hard to score in a +nao/+ao/-pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not a huge fan of seeing wxsim signaling mixing even well n and w with elevation. Expectations tempered severely for now. Yeah models look ok....just ok honestly. It's a fine line. And being 6 days out still there is ALOT that can go wrong to muck up the fragile setup we r seeing. Agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Author Share Posted February 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just renewed my gold subscription, good to go for another year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 It's go time for the winter of azz next week, here comes the sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's go time for the winter of azz next week, here comes the sleet NAM is a redux of the famous VD sleet storm. Like 5" sleet wth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM is a redux of the famous VD sleet storm. Like 5" sleet wth Funny there were some 2007 analogs mixed in for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I got to experience Monmouth's least wintry winter in a hundred years lucky me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Like the models I have officially caved. If something good happens so be it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 On 2/10/2019 at 9:50 PM, RedSky said: I got to experience Monmouth's least wintry winter in a hundred years lucky me! Move down to the Mid Atlantic next Jinx them, Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 I'm out. Barring a miracle I will save you guys any negativity and grief. Maybe I will post a wrap up next month not sure. In any event it's been a fun season (minus the snow) and I will see you all next fall/winter......or at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm out. Barring a miracle I will save you guys any negativity and grief. Maybe I will post a wrap up next month not sure. In any event it's been a fun season (minus the snow) and I will see you all next fall/winter......or at 12z Nah hang in there, speaking for myself I enjoy reading your analysis and thoughts true the season has been 10 days away all season but it happens that way sometimes. Just as everyone gives up something will pop up and well all be amped up again. Hang in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2019 Author Share Posted February 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 The older I get the more I find tracking storms far out a complete waste of time unless it's your career. This year really proves it. Yeah, it's a hobby and may stimulate the brain or not (stress) but can't be good for the eyes (starring at the screen) gut or sleep pattern. Maybe I'm just in a rut...or Mother Nature/models are just F'en with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I got to experience Monmouth's least wintry winter in a hundred years lucky me! Yeah......we (30 year+ residents) had a meeting last night after the models updated. How long are you staying? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm out. Barring a miracle I will save you guys any negativity and grief. Maybe I will post a wrap up next month not sure. In any event it's been a fun season (minus the snow) and I will see you all next fall/winter......or at 12z I'm right behind ya, I dig severe season even though we rarely get anything noteworthy. If the pattern holds though into spring, things could get real interesting with lows cutting up the OV. As far as winter, now that we look 0 for 3 in this window followed by a torch, I'm about to throw in the towel as well. Just isn't our year. Biggest event of 4.5" came in November. Lots of pro's forecasts busted hard this winter. Even you and I that didn't call for winter of yore didn't believe it would be this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 53 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: The older I get the more I find tracking storms far out a complete waste of time unless it's your career. This year really proves it. Yeah, it's a hobby and may stimulate the brain or not (stress) but can't be good for the eyes (starring at the screen) gut or sleep pattern. Maybe I'm just in a rut...or Mother Nature/models are just F'en with us. I'm getting old. There was a time I'd roll out of bed in the middle of the night to watch the 0Z Euro roll in. Of course, this was back in the day when the Euro was a lot more stable than it seems today. I guess after years of tracking, my heart just isn't in it like it once was. Not saying I don't track, but I'm not as invested as I was 10-15 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 54 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I'm getting old. There was a time I'd roll out of bed in the middle of the night to watch the 0Z Euro roll in. Of course, this was back in the day when the Euro was a lot more stable than it seems today. I guess after years of tracking, my heart just isn't in it like it once was. Not saying I don't track, but I'm not as invested as I was 10-15 years ago. I turn the big 50 this coming Fall (Oct)...seen you did this several years ago. I have/had tons of shiet going on so that's probably part of the reason I'm not as much involved as normal. Maybe enter weenie mode at some point again (not this year). Snow storms used to be on top of my list by far and still are to an extent but severe weather/t-storms are catching up. I would quit winter right now in exchange for a below normal temp summer w/above average t-storms. (Not a likely combination) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 46 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I turn the big 50 this coming Fall (Oct)...seen you did this several years ago. I have/had tons of shiet going on so that's probably part of the reason I'm not as much involved as normal. Maybe enter weenie mode at some point again (not this year). Snow storms used to be on top of my list by far and still are to an extent but severe weather/t-storms are catching up. I would quit winter right now in exchange for a below normal temp summer w/above average t-storms. (Not a likely combination) If this pattern continues into Spring, we could have quite the active severe season. These lows cutting to our west would be a good setup for some severe threats. Already bracing for the -NAO pattern change hitting on MArch 15th though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: If this pattern continues into Spring, we could have quite the active severe season. These lows cutting to our west would be a good setup for some severe threats. Already bracing for the -NAO pattern change hitting on MArch 15th though.. This would be good. Not that means all that much but any summer outlooks yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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