ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Wxsim with 12z data bumps up snow in NW Chesco to 6" to 8" Tuesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain likely in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 34. Wind southeast around 9 mph in the morning, becoming southwest around 4 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 4 to 6 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Tuesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming fair after midnight. Patchy light fog in the evening. Snow likely. Low 20. Wind northwest around 9 mph, gusting to 19 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Wxsim with 12z data bumps up snow in NW Chesco to 6" to 8" Tuesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain likely in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 34. Wind southeast around 9 mph in the morning, becoming southwest around 4 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 4 to 6 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Tuesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming fair after midnight. Patchy light fog in the evening. Snow likely. Low 20. Wind northwest around 9 mph, gusting to 19 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. U arent getting 6"+ I'm willing to bet on it. Front is literally racing and you/we are relying on 1)a flip to snow and 2)rapid accumulation with an anafront scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Latest EURO also starting to look like WXSIM....may start seeing a bit more interest here soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Euro throwing us a bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 By the way if you are a snow weenie imagine how you would feel in Boston with only 1.8" of snow so far this year....our area has had 10x their snow this season. At Logan Airport they are almost 20" below normal through today. Here in NW Chesco we have had 8 times the snow that Boston has seen so far. I was actually up there this week for a client in Waltham (West of BOS) and they had about 4" of solid snow/IP on the ground although it was raining and warming. What was on the ground was the only event they have had this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, ChescoPaWxman said: By the way if you are a snow weenie imagine how you would feel in Boston with only 1.8" of snow so far this year....our area has had 10x their snow this season. At Logan Airport they are almost 20" below normal through today. Here in NW Chesco we have had 8 times the snow that Boston has seen so far. I was actually up there this week for a client in Waltham (West of BOS) and they had about 4" of solid snow/IP on the ground although it was raining and warming. What was on the ground was the only event they have had this year. That is an ugly stat....wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Latest Wxsim with 18z data down to only 4" to 7" of snow but has eliminated any mixing potential and now sees an all snow event Monday night: Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight. Low 27. Wind east-southeast around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch. Tuesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. Snow likely. High 32. Wind southeast around 7 mph in the morning, becoming west-southwest around 3 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Tuesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming fair to partly cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog in the evening. Snow likely. Low 20. Wind northwest around 8 mph, gusting to 19 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 Meso guidance (nams/rgem/srefs) are leaning heavily against flipping to snow and accumulation over an inch for many of us in SE PA. The globals are a quick flip to snow with SECS type accums 4-8"+ outside of 'extreme' SE PA along 95 particularly. Choose your weapon.....but choose wisely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Meso guidance (nams/rgem/srefs) are leaning heavily against flipping to snow and accumulation over an inch for many of us in SE PA. The globals are a quick flip to snow with SECS type accums 4-8"+ outside of 'extreme' SE PA along 95 particularly. Choose your weapon.....but choose wisely. Steve as you know be cautious with MESO at this range....not saying it doesn't happen but a little outside their range....be careful my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Steve as you know be cautious with MESO at this range....not saying it doesn't happen but a little outside their range....be careful my man I thought under 54 hours was outside global range but right in the meso wheelhouse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Meso guidance (nams/rgem/srefs) are leaning heavily against flipping to snow and accumulation over an inch for many of us in SE PA. The globals are a quick flip to snow with SECS type accums 4-8"+ outside of 'extreme' SE PA along 95 particularly. Choose your weapon.....but choose wisely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, RedSky said: Sh!t just got real....dayummm son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Sh!t just got real....dayummm son We need snow numbers no more Mr Nice guy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 10:27 AM, The Iceman said: And that's way too broad of a brush. There have been bad weak El Nino's in the past. Not enough attention was paid to the pattern leading into winter imo. The WAR killing us all winter has been in place since summer. The nao had been majority positive. Too many were banking on a magical pattern flip because analog years and "the weeklies" said it would come. and people who think la ninas are awful should remember that our best winters have actually come during la ninas that happened after el ninos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Hard to believe how terrible December and January have been 2016-2019 minus one big freaking storm. It's a four year stretch that would register worse than the 80's if it wasn't for one storm. * Not that February has been good either in that stretch. The warmest Feb ever is in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Warming up my towel to throw for winter. Depending where we are this time next week it may be time to toss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 The wife is sitting in the direct sunlight in our living room and telling me how nice and warm the sun feels. Guess the sun angle talk can begin lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Warming up my towel to throw for winter. Depending where we are this time next week it may be time to toss. Bring on golf and gardening at this point. Next week will be a nice preview, I bet we see some 60's in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 51 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Bring on golf and gardening at this point. Next week will be a nice preview, I bet we see some 60's in the region. 60s before Feb 10? Wiggum Rule would be in full effect if that verifies. That's the next thing I will be tracking....tomorrow looks meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 Most predictable unpredictable LR winter ever. Early Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Mid Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Late Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Ealy Jan - everyone is buzzing about the SSWE and 2 week lag time pointing to Jan 15-20 as the epic pattern rollout. Several new 3 and 4-letter indices are being posted with graphs and multi-color charts that only Galileo can decipher but everyone is told this means fasten your seatbelts a wild winter to remember is coming starting mid Jan. Then, weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2 which is mid Jan. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Mid Jan - epic pattern has been delayed but now has a scapegoat to be blamed and it's name is MJO. weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Late Jan - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. I wonder how this story continues? Been an 'epic' novel so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Most predictable unpredictable LR winter ever. Early Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Mid Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Late Dec - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Ealy Jan - everyone is buzzing about the SSWE and 2 week lag time pointing to Jan 15-20 as the epic pattern rollout. Several new 3 and 4-letter indices are being posted with graphs and multi-color charts that only Galileo can decipher but everyone is told this means fasten your seatbelts a wild winter to remember is coming starting mid Jan. Then, weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2 which is mid Jan. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Mid Jan - epic pattern has been delayed but now has a scapegoat to be blamed and it's name is MJO. weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. Late Jan - weeklies and LR cfs data comes out....pattern looks to take steps towards epic look starting week 2. EPS and GEFS at 12z confirm solid step look days 14+. 18z GEFS even more solid looking. 0z data rolls in.....epic look delayed. I wonder how this story continues? Been an 'epic' novel so far It continues with the weeklies showing a mild and dry spring come March then verifying as a neg nao bringing coastal rainstorm after coastal rainstorm. That is where we are headed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Ya know what's really fooking incredible watching all points W and S get hit yet again in the winter with the most cutters in our history. The irony of a big dry confluent push from the NE when it's been absent for each and every one of those cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 12z GFS is fooking priceless post torch as a wagon train of impulses hit to the north and south, the one in the middle changes to rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 56 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z GFS is fooking priceless post torch as a wagon train of impulses hit to the north and south, the one in the middle changes to rain lol i'd take a 3-6" to rain type storm at this point... this winter is absolutely awful. relatively cold and rainy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand the 10 miles south of 195 in New Jersey winter of 2019 hits again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 3 hours ago, The Iceman said: i'd take a 3-6" to rain type storm at this point... this winter is absolutely awful. relatively cold and rainy. Why not keep the fail going through February, just think you can be the 97yo guy at the senior center talking about the winter of 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 18z GFS is super awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 5 hours ago, RedSky said: 12z GFS is fooking priceless post torch as a wagon train of impulses hit to the north and south, the one in the middle changes to rain lol 18z GFS has a total of 7 snowflakes for the region thru the entire run. Nothing even close tbh on that run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 BUt but the euro looks positevely awesome where it's going long range! Yeah the old atari GFS has mastered this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 And Punxsutawney Phil says - Winter of azzzz.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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