KamuSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 This won't do much for our sense of snow deprivation so far this winter, but it's interesting to compare this date's snow cover to a year ago: 2019: 2018: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Thanks for trying to cheer us up, Kamu. Among the differences from last year, we had some decent snow events in Dec 2017 -- nothing epic, but several inches to remind you what season it was. Since the Nov snow this year, I've only received 2" since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Mdecoy said: It has been historically bad. Not just this year, the past few years. You'd think at some point we'd catch a break. Doesn't look like this year. Hmmm I guess my 63" of snow, almost 200% of normal, for the 2017-18 Winter was "bad". Lol give me a break we've had great winters the last couple years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS showing 5" to 7" snow by Late Tuesday Night Monday night: Clear in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy after midnight. A slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 30. Wind east-southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch. Tuesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. Snow likely in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 33. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 26. Wind south around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches. Tuesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming fair after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A chance of snow in the evening. Low 17. Wind chill ranging from 12 to 21. Wind west-northwest around 10 mph, gusting to 19 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Wxsim got 5-7" from this? lol looks like it needs a big tuneup 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Trying for a move back to the Kutztown area in the spring, if I pull this often looks for the blockbuster winters to return to Monmouth County winter of 2020 nothing gets NW of I95... *** potential blizzard for Monmouth as soon as late March- April se what i can do lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Watch we get 1 huge snowstorm and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS showing 5" to 7" snow by Late Tuesday Night Did JB do the programming for wxsim? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Trying for a move back to the Kutztown area in the spring, if I pull this often looks for the blockbuster winters to return to Monmouth County winter of 2020 nothing gets NW of I95... *** potential blizzard for Monmouth as soon as late March- April se what i can do lol NOOOOOOOOO that's too close to me. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, penndotguy said: NOOOOOOOOO that's too close to me. Lol MUUUUAAHAAAAHAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 WXSIM updated with 12z GFS updated with 12z NAM - n Monday night: Mostly clear in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A chance of a mix of snow and rain after midnight. Low 26. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 29. Wind southeast around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch. Tuesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain likely in the morning, then a mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill ranging from 22 to 28. Wind south-southeast around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Tuesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming fair after midnight. Patchy light fog. Snow likely. Low 19. Wind west-northwest around 10 mph, gusting to 19 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: WXSIM updated with 12z GFS updated with 12z NAM - n Monday night: Mostly clear in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A chance of a mix of snow and rain after midnight. Low 26. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 29. Wind southeast around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch. Tuesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain likely in the morning, then a mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill ranging from 22 to 28. Wind south-southeast around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Tuesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming fair after midnight. Patchy light fog. Snow likely. Low 19. Wind west-northwest around 10 mph, gusting to 19 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. By the way I don not buy this at all - I am riding the EURO maybe up to 2" much more to the west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Cape May and coast of Delaware are kicking my eastern Monmouth butt this year in snowfall The eastern Monmouth to NYC to Boston death zone won't budge it's quite funny what the arctic anafront is forecast to do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Winter 2019 breakdown for weenies The anarctic front event is just the third "major" winter event of the greater region Nov- N&W&SW of I95 storm (very odd that it hit to the SW also) Dec - nothing (the lower MA storm) Jan - The MA storm which also fringed this region mainly W of I95 (subsidence from hell backing from the NE very bizarre) but also slammed south Jersey good Jan - the incoming anarctic event still up in the air but looks to be N&W&S of I95 primarily * the inverted trough norlun spectacular for parts of south Jersey to Kamus yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Latest Wxsim with 18z data down a bit but still showing about 4" of snow with this event Tuesday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow, sleet, and rain in the morning, then a mix of snow, sleet, rain, and freezing rain likely in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill around 22. Wind southeast around 10 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation around 2 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Tuesday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. Snow likely. Low 18. Wind chill ranging from 12 to 23. Wind west around 11 mph, gusting to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 It's amazing how the coastal areas can't even get a light snowfall. Pretty sad 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 So my inch or two Tuesday and Tuesday night is now in jeopardy, it’s sad that I was even looking forward to a meager 2” snow that probably lasts for a week. But I’m waiting patiently for these “interesting times ahead “ I keep hearing about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 39 minutes ago, penndotguy said: So my inch or two Tuesday and Tuesday night is now in jeopardy, it’s sad that I was even looking forward to a meager 2” snow that probably lasts for a week. But I’m waiting patiently for these “interesting times ahead “ I keep hearing about Early spring on many of the ens now. Complete PAC breakdown and on the ATL side we finally get a neg NAO except it links up with the SE ridge in a full latitude ridge with AN temp regime in the East and deep trof out West. I mentioned before that we could score a fluke late season storm but anything sustained in Feb is looking less and less likely at this point. There really is no way to sugarcoat it and I wish I had a more optimistic view going forward but I'm not one to spew glass half full garbage just to appease people. Maybe something will change and I will be completely wrong with Feb.....hopefully. I would love to take my children snowboarding and snowtubing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Early spring on many of the ens now. Complete PAC breakdown and in the ATL side we finally get a neg NAO except it links up with the SE ridge in a full latitude ridge with AN temp regime in the East and deepl trof out West. I mentioned before that we could score a fluke late season storm but anything sustained in Feb is looking less and less likely at this point. There really is no way to sugarcoat it and I wish I had a more optimistic view going forward but I'm not one to spew glass half full garbage just to appease people. Maybe something will change and I will be completely wrong with Feb.....hopefully. I would love to take my children snowboarding and snowtubing. Yeah I was being sarcastic with the interesting times ahead reference. I’ve given up hope at this point and finally come to the realization that it’s just one of those years we don’t score, the worst part is we have to suffer through 2 months of this before Spring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 21 hours ago, JTA66 said: Thanks for trying to cheer us up, Kamu. Among the differences from last year, we had some decent snow events in Dec 2017 -- nothing epic, but several inches to remind you what season it was. Since the Nov snow this year, I've only received 2" since. Around here we had a bonafide blizzard in early January last year not sure if you got that and a historic March-April combo. Last winter was light years better than this one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Wxsim with 6z data for NW Chester County PA remains firm on a minor 3" to 4" snow event with a battle between rain and snow during the day Tuesday transitioning to a period of Heavy Snow Tuesday evening before ending late. Through today we have had 10.7" of snow which is 5.9" below our normal snow to date. I see no reasons despite the winter is over crowd (happens every year and oh yeah don't forget the sun angle argument that is coming to a forum near you soon - LOL!) growing louder by the day to give in to that chatter. I see plenty of cold intrusions with some warmer periods as mentioned above but certainly no winter is over looks. I continue to remind folks here just 2 significant storms at some point over the next 2 months would put many posters on here above normal for the year. I remain convinced this will indeed happen. Stay tuned plenty of cold and storms to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 20 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Wxsim with 6z data for NW Chester County PA remains firm on a minor 3" to 4" snow event with a battle between rain and snow during the day Tuesday transitioning to a period of Heavy Snow Tuesday evening before ending late. Through today we have had 10.7" of snow which is 5.9" below our normal snow to date. I see no reasons despite the winter is over crowd (happens every year and oh yeah don't forget the sun angle argument that is coming to a forum near you soon - LOL!) growing louder by the day to give in to that chatter. I see plenty of cold intrusions with some warmer periods as mentioned above but certainly no winter is over looks. I continue to remind folks here just 2 significant storms at some point over the next 2 months would put many posters on here above normal for the year. I remain convinced this will indeed happen. Stay tuned plenty of cold and storms to track! So one could surmise also that NO significant snow storms over the next 2 months would place most of the region BN for the year correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 I'm am not calling for a complete end to winter or early spring I am regurgitating what guidance is spitting out and hinting at. I have however thrown the towel in on any real 'sustained' wintry pattern taking hold. The ens were gung ho that we would lock-in from mid Jan thru March and that just isnt happening and they keep delaying the solid looks and muting them. When the PAC is crap the Atl is workable and vice versa....we arent getting the two sides to work in tandem. Now we are seeing signs of an AN temp regime building for Feb in the East. We can hope this gets muted like the sustained cold pattern looks continue to be. Echoing what I said many times I would not be surprised if we see one widespread larger storm later in the second half of Feb for the 'grand finale' of our winter of yore. And yes Paul, with that said anything can happen and that scenario could even push snowfall to N or AN 'IF' that were to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I just want to dig my car out 1 time this winter. What a lame winter after everyone thought this winter was going to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 33 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I just want to dig my car out 1 time this winter. What a lame winter after everyone thought this winter was going to be good. Not everyone... I think the biggest problem was forecasters came across too confident in thesr winter forecasts and really didn't give themselves an out. I thought this winter would be frustrating at the coast due to the war from hell in place since summer and positive nao but that this winter definitely was a low confidence forecast. It felt there was way too much certainty in many winter forecasts and I hope some are humbled by this season instead of coming up with excuses... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Around here we had a bonafide blizzard in early January last year not sure if you got that and a historic March-April combo. Last winter was light years better than this one here. Not so much April last year, but March was nice while we were in waiting for spring mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Not everyone... I think the biggest problem was forecasters came across too confident in thesr winter forecasts and really didn't give themselves an out. I thought this winter would be frustrating at the coast due to the war from hell in place since summer and positive nao but that this winter definitely was a low confidence forecast. It felt there was way too much certainty in many winter forecasts and I hope some are humbled by this season instead of coming up with excuses... People thought this was going to be a good winter because of the weak EL Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: People thought this was going to be a good winter because of the weak EL Nino. And that's way too broad of a brush. There have been bad weak El Nino's in the past. Not enough attention was paid to the pattern leading into winter imo. The WAR killing us all winter has been in place since summer. The nao had been majority positive. Too many were banking on a magical pattern flip because analog years and "the weeklies" said it would come. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: I just want to dig my car out 1 time this winter. What a lame winter after everyone most people thought this winter was going to be good. FYP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: People thought this was going to be a good winter because of the weak EL Nino. Weak el nino around here with snow before thanksgiving is a recipe for disaster. Go take a look at the analogs I presented in the outlook back in Oct. Not even sure tho that we can label this a weak el nino....may end up as a neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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