Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, mappy said: so, winter cancel? About 2 weeks too late with your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think you're on to something here. I would only make a couple changes... Christmasgullywashergasm Dec 29th, 2018 overrunning tropical downpour New Years Eve epicutterwarmsector We'll put those in the "maybe" column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: so, winter cancel? Yeah, but we're thinking the 2020-21 winter could be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: About 2 weeks too late with your post pretty sure i made the same post 2 weeks ago 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, but we're thinking the 2020-21 winter could be epic. good to know! maybe ill be able to open the pool really early this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, but we're thinking the 2020-21 winter could be epic. CFS yearly model is showing a strong nina unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: CFS yearly model is showing a strong nina unfortunately. Damn...thought next winter was a strong Nina. Maybe be 22-23? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: pretty sure i made the same post 2 weeks ago good to know! maybe ill be able to open the pool really early this year Year round pool... you never have to close it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Year round pool... you never have to close it not the worst thing IMO - opening and closing the pool is a major pain in the ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: If anyone has extra time this weekend they should start preparing their property for the Christmas coastal. And by prepare I mean cleaning out gutters and storm drains and making sure sump pumps are working properly. I know someone that is deeply disappointed in you Bob. 4 hours ago, PDIII said: Thanks Bob. You really are the one that gives us hope around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: If anyone has extra time this weekend they should start preparing their property for the Christmas coastal. And by prepare I mean cleaning out gutters and storm drains and making sure sump pumps are working properly. But...but...but HOW does the snow get into your sump pump???? Collapsed roofs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Its a shame i can't root for death by hoping for big snow storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: When I put Bob on payroll, I had no idea he'd be this good. He's even depressing me and this despite the fact I am starting to really like our chances for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 For the rainer storm on xmas i thought reworking some holiday jingles would seem appropriate. "Here comes Sand Bags, here come Sand Bags, need those to block the flood." "Walking in a Flooded Basement Wonderland" "Silent Sump" "Baby, its Warm Outside" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, mappy said: not the worst thing IMO - opening and closing the pool is a major pain in the ass Preach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 The outright trolling is kinda a bummer, frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The outright trolling is kinda a bummer, frankly. It will stop once there are real threats to discuss. Don't worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It will stop once there are real threats to discuss. Don't worry Technically I'm not even trolling. I'm just being honest. I don't think we stand much of a chance for anything at all for the next couple weeks. It's not a shutout pattern but it's pretty flawed. Not liking the northern stream taking over. Getting a northern stream system to produce here in December is a tall order. Christmas has a southern stream component if it comes together but the chance of rain far exceeds the chance of snow imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 That’s all fine - but some of it is outright trolling, and coming from some of the posting luminaries (not joking , you two are better than most on here by a lot) it unnecessarily affects the tone of the board, in my opinion, that’s all. No reason to sugarcoat a bad pattern, but maybe don’t need to troll it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Technically I'm not even trolling. I'm just being honest. I don't think we stand much of a chance for anything at all for the next couple weeks. It's not a shutout pattern but it's pretty flawed. Not liking the northern stream taking over. Getting a northern stream system to produce here in December is a tall order. Christmas has a southern stream component if it comes together but the chance of rain far exceeds the chance of snow imho. The look for about 3-4 days centered on Xmas is actually a pretty good longwave h5 pattern. The issue though is that the entire CONUS is pretty void of true cold air at the start so we might waste a storm threat that way. Then we are left needing another wave to come along in time before things retrograde up top and ridging starts to develop in the east. If there was a cold pattern established we would actually have a pretty good window for something. I think I am slightly more optimistic then you right now regarding the chances to luck our way into some marginal event during that week. Not high probability but it wouldn't shock me either. A clipper, or a quick inch on the backside of a departing system, or 1-2" on the front end of a cutter after xmas. Something like those options is on the table imo. But our chances of something significant are pretty low. I am also probably more optimistic because I "think" I have a handle on where this is heading. After a week or so of cold around xmas the look up top continues its retrogression. At that point we probably warm around new years. From there if we can build heights up top as we head into January and the jet naturally gets displaced south more easily...the whole pattern would become suppressed enough to get us on the right side of the gradients. Get the typical nino Aleutian low to pop up and we could get some PNA help and then it could really get epic. Either way things seem to be going according to the typical weak/moderate nino progression. Hopefully tonight's weeklies will speed up the progression a bit from the last run and calm some nerves. I am actually OK with the progression Monday's run showed. If we get that kind of look by January 20th...we would be set up for a 3-4 week run during our prime climo. We kind of missed our golden chance to get a big hit or two outside the prime climo run we likely go on later...and that sucks, and maybe in the end that means this year ends up more like 1966, 1978, 1987, or 2015...years where nothing happened early and basically the whole winter was a 3-4 week epic run. We might have missed the boat to get a year like 1964, 2002, 2010 where we got lucky with an early hit before also having the epic period later in winter. But when it's all over if anyone complains if this year ends up above 20" at DCA and above 30 at IAD and BWI they should be taken out back and beaten with the stupid stick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: That’s all fine - but some of it is outright trolling, and coming from some of the posting luminaries (not joking , you two are better than most on here by a lot) it unnecessarily affects the tone of the board, in my opinion, that’s all. No reason to sugarcoat a bad pattern, but maybe don’t need to troll it either. I have kept most of my trolling in the panic room threat...and will keep all of it there from now on, which is kind of what that place is for right? As for others... I get the humor in what they are doing...but I am pretty laid back about all this. But as Bob said I don't think he is really trolling, I think he honestly doesn't like the look from now until New Years. But I agree the really silly stuff we should move over to panic room or banter and keep out of the main thread if some don't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Sometimes change is bad (see New Coke), and sometimes it's awesome. I love the new Bob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Snow on Christmas Eve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: I know someone that is deeply disappointed in you Bob. We still have a lot of time for this to change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 I get to launch the MAF weather balloon at 0z today with winds likely into the 30's and 40's with a gust to 50 mph. Should be a blast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 38 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: That’s all fine - but some of it is outright trolling, and coming from some of the posting luminaries (not joking , you two are better than most on here by a lot) it unnecessarily affects the tone of the board, in my opinion, that’s all. No reason to sugarcoat a bad pattern, but maybe don’t need to troll it either. I hear ya. I'll back off in the disco thread but I won't sugar coat what I'm seeing on the models. If something real comes into focus you know I'll have the laser out and overanalyze everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, PDIII said: Snow on Christmas Eve! For 6.7% of the forum!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 How about a measurement that calculates rotational speed of the Earth.. With NIno 4 warm/Nino 1.2 cold all the time, the Hadley Cells blowing up in Atlantic and Pacific and higher snows in NYC, I think this index is going strongly toward a slower rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: How about a measurement that calculated rotational speed the Earth.. With NIno 4 warm/Nino 1.2 cold all the time, the Hadley Cells blowing up in Atlantic and Pacific and higher snows across NYC, I think this index is going strongly toward a slower rotation. I think you're right; I've noticed the nights seem to be getting longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: For 6.7% of the forum!! It's actually 7.4%. You forgot to include jonjon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I think you're right; I've noticed the nights seem to be getting longer. It's a real askew in the global weather pattern. Melting arctic ice probably does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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